Now we're coming up on the playoffs, and the better teams are showing themselves. Also, I'm back from school, so I have a lot more time to play with ESPN's playoff machine and discuss the most pressing scenarios. Starting this week I will give playoff chances like an injury report (>80%: no comment. 65-80%: Probable. 35%-65%: Questionable. 2.5%-35%: Doubtful. <2.5%: Out). Any team listed as out will not be mentioned the next week (unless the improbable events conspire to bring the team to Questionable status). Because they're out. [Brackets count the playoff teams we have set as we go through the list.]
1. Seattle Seahawks [NFC: 1, AFC: 0]
Yeah, it's not close.
2. Denver Broncos [NFC: 1, AFC: 1]
Peyton Manning's bombs were perfect on Sunday. He's too good. It just didn't feel fair when the Broncos were on offense.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable) [NFC: 2, AFC: 1]
Nick Foles just keeps getting it done. It felt like a flukey win against the Cardinals, with a turnover margin as big as the victory margin, but that was a matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL. Getting slightly outplayed by an elite team, which is exactly what the Eagles did, isn't such a bad sign. Especially when you still get a win out of it.
4. Cincinnati Bengals [NFC: 2, AFC: 2]
This is the most balanced team in the NFL, with the league's only top 10 offense and defense*, yet they are flying way under the radar. They need to be taken seriously.
*By my algorithm: 9th and 4th respectively. Also, this is ignoring the Seahawks, who are top 3 in both. And top 1 in special teams (by a lot), which isn't even part of my algorithm. But the Seahawks are in a different category altogether at this point.
5. New Orleans Saints [NFC: 3, AFC: 2]
That was bad. Really bad. I don't care who they are, or how loud it gets, or how much the earth shakes, you can't get beaten that bad. As an interesting note, once one fun stat gets introduced, everybody loves taking it, even when there are more notable ones that get ignored. For example, there was a huge deal about how this game ended Brees's 43 game 200-yard streak. But it also ended his 106 game 150-yard streak. Which is a hell of a lot more substantial. Anyway, the Saints have played really well in most of their other games, so they can their body of work keeps them in the top 5.
6. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful) [NFC: 3, AFC: 2]
This team is for real. Unfortunately, it's going to be tough for them to sneak into the playoffs given their road matchup with Seattle in week 16. Let's look at how hard it is (assuming they lose to the Hawks. If they can actually pull that off, they have a good shot): Even if they beat the 49ers week 17 and both teams finish 10-6, the 49ers have the tiebreak. That would be the result if the Cardinals finished 3-1 and the 49ers finished 2-2 (only needing to beat the lowly Falcons and Bucs. And they're actually 2.5 point favorites at home against the Seahawks next week). The Cardinals have a couple other options though. First, if the Seahawks beat the 49ers and then the Giants, they will have already clinched the NFC's 1-seed and may rest some starters against the Cardinals. Also, if the Panthers struggle against the Saints and end up finishing 1-3, any 49ers record other than 10-6 will allow the Cardinals to beat out the Panthers via head-to-head tiebreak. This is about as bleak as things can be for a team as good as the Cardinals, but there is still a glimmer of hope.
7. Detroit Lions (Probable) [NFC: 4, AFC: 2]
I don't care who was quarterbacking for the Packers, that win was impressive. They dominated in the rushing game and passing game, on offense and defense. It's not like the Packers-sans-Rodgers were looking this bad in other games. The entire Lions team, and especially the defensive line, just played incredibly well.
8. San Francisco 49ers [NFC: 5, AFC: 2]
There's no doubt this team is good. The difference between 5 and 8 on this list is practically nil. And as has been heavily discussed above, they have a very good shot to make the playoffs, even if they don't win either of their winnable-but-tough divisional games.
9. Green Bay Packers (Doubtful) [NFC: 5, AFC: 2]
This team is in a similar situations to the Cardinals (very good, but will have a tough time making the playoffs; however, the Packers are not nearly as hopeless as the Cards.), but for completely different reasons, which are trivial enough that they don't really need to be discussed. Instead, let's look at how hard it's going to be for them to get into the tournament. They really have to win out, but that isn't so unreasonable, given that they just have what looks like one more Rodgers-less game, and that's against the awful Falcons defense. But that only leaves them at 9-6-1. And that's almost certainly going to be worse than the loser of the Saints-Falcons battle (the wild card of those two would need to lose out in order to go 9-7), as well as the 49ers. This leaves the NFC North title as the Packers' only realistic hope. But if the Lions go 2-2 in their final 4 games, the Packers will beat them out. Against a pretty tough slate for the Lions (at Eagles, Ravens, Giants, at Vikings), that's not unreasonable. But winning 4 games might be. Even if they are 70% favorites in all the games, which might be pushing it, that leaves less than a 25% chance of winning out. The Packers need both that AND the Lions' failures. It's still a better situation than the Cardinals are in, though.
10. Carolina Panthers [NFC: 6, AFC: 2. The NFC playoff teams have largely been decided already.]
Good win against the Bucs: convincing enough to finally bump the Panthers into the top 10. And they are in great position to fight for a 2-seed. Interestingly enough, given the weakness of the NFC North and East, the Saints and Panthers have a good chance of playing AGAIN in the second round of the playoffs (winnner gets 2-seed, loser gets the 5-seed, both road teams win in the first round).
11. Cleveland Browns (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
This is a team that might actually have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Cardinals. OK, not really, but the Cardinals' path is really hard. It's not that unreasonable for an 8-8 Browns team (that means winning out) to get the 6-seed in the AFC. Then again, they're playing the Patriots on the road next week. But that's actually a winnable game. The Browns defense is really good. (Note that the Browns are the 3rd best team in the AFC.)
12. New York Giants (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
They have a good defense. Really good. But that offense is terrible. And they won't make the playoffs. Here's why: Their path to the playoffs pretty much has to go through the division title. Beating out the Cowboys shouldn't be so bad. But the Eagles are good, and they get to play 3 mediocre-at-best teams (Vikings, Bears, Cowboys) and get the Lions at home. Even if the Eagles go 2-2 in those games (beating the Cowboys), they would beat out a Giants team that finishes 4-0. Now let's look at the best case scenario for the Giants (be warned: It isn't pretty). What if the Eagles AND Cowboys lost ALL their games going into their week 17 matchup? Then, if the Giants win out, they win the division. Unfortunately, they host the Seahawks in week 15 and then travel to Detroit in week 16. They'll be lucky to win one of those, but let's say they do, and they manage to win their other two games as well. Then they STILL can only make the playoffs if the Eagles and Cowboys TIE. Yeah, the Giants are done.
13. San Diego Chargers (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
They lost to a good Bengals team by 7. There's not much shame in that. But that defense is shameful. They've been carried by Rivers all year. And in the AFC, they are not out of the playoff hunt by any means. They do play Denver though, on the road, so it'll be tough to finish better than 3-1 with an 8-8 record. And they don't beat pretty much anyone on tiebreaks. But the AFC is bad enough that 8-8 could win the 6-seed without even needing tiebreaks.
14. New York Jets (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
Things are looking really bad right now. They still have a good defense, but the offense is completely falling apart. They're in pretty much the same position as the Chargers right now, except with a worse team, an easier schedule, and the tiebreak over the Chargers, but they still lack the tiebreaks over the AFC North teams.
15. New England Patriots [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
The offense has obviously gotten a lot better since Gronk and Amendola have gotten healthy, and that has balanced out the injuries to the defense. But this team was never that good. We tend to give much more credit to comebacks than is deserved. The truth is, if you were better, you wouldn't have needed to come back. The Patriots are about as good as the Texans. It doesn't matter when each team was outplaying the other.
16. Houston Texans (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
They're not mathematically out of the playoffs, and they're not a bad team either. Just one of the most unlucky that I've ever seen. It's too bad, really. The playoffs are better when they include the best player in the world.
17. Baltimore Ravens (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
They score just enough for the defense to win games for them, and right now, they're in playoff position. It's going to be tough for them to stay there though. In their final 3 games, they travel to both the Bengals and the Lions, and they host the Patriots. Even their game against the Vikings next week isn't a gimme.
18. Tennessee Titans (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
While they have to face the Broncos and Cardinals the next two weeks, they finish by traveling to Jacksonville and then hosting Houston. Those games are winnable for this solid (at least on defense, but even their offense isn't horrendous) team.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
The Steelers' offense has improved enough to actually become the driving force behind this team whose defense used to be elite but has since fallen apart. They still are right in the middle of the playoff race though. If they can get a win out of their games against tough Bengals and Packers teams, they get a chance to fend off the Browns and Dolphins, two teams that are also playing for that AFC 6-seed.
20. Chicago Bears (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
That defense, which hasn't even put up a fight against the run for a few games now, looks like it cost this team a playoff spot. They don't have the tiebreaker against the Lions, so they are in pretty much the same boat as the Packers (except worse team, better record. But the same thing needs to happen for each of them.).
21. Miami Dolphins (Questionable) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
After dismantling the Jets, the Dolphins are in a better situation than anyone to claim the final AFC playoff spot. It still is tough, but all their games are winnable, even their home game against the Patriots. And that's the hardest one. The others are against the Steelers, Bills, and Jets. Maybe most importantly, they have the best conference winning percentage of all the teams fighting for the 6-seed. That could prove to be huge in the end.
22. Oakland Raiders (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
While they can still fight, they are farther than their competitors from that coveted AFC 6-seed. At 4-8, they pretty much need to win out, but they have to play the Broncos, who could easily still be fighting to keep the 1-seed from the Patriots. In all likelihood, this path is just too tough for a Raiders team that has been able all season to fight harder than anybody expected for a gutted roster.
23. Buffalo Bills (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
Down, but not quite out just yet. Although I really do hate writing about this team. I was thinking about changing the "out" threshold just so I could knock them out sooner. But there's still too much that could happen for the Bills in this wide open race. Unfortunately for them, they blew a really good game in Toronto. They had outplayed Atlanta all day, rushing for almost 200 yards, and they just ran into some bad luck. If not for that, the Bills would actually be the third most likely team to claim the 6-seed. But it was not to be.
24. Minnesota Vikings (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
We don't have to worry about playoffs here, so we can just look at their horrendous pass defense! Of course AD was going to run all over the Bears, but should you really let Alshon Jeffery get 249 yards on you? Back to the offense though, they've actually gotten reasonable quarterback play for a few weeks in a row now. But of course it's the running game that wins for them (and a little special teams and luck).
25. Washington Redskins (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
They're really out. Mathematically out. They were out a week ago. That's hard to do. I mean, even the Texans aren't out yet. But in the NFC, both those wild cards are going to require good records. Maybe next year though, once Robert can be fully healthy again. But for now, SEE-YA.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
The offense reverted to their old awful ways against a dominant front 7. Though Glennon was not as bad as one might expect from a loss that bad, or from his QBR (lol). The real problem was blocking.
27. Indianapolis Colts [NFC: 6, AFC: 4]
They'll make it. And I am starting to like Andrew Luck more though. Not as a quarterback, of course. But when everybody (especially Bill Cowher. What an asshole) was doting on him for getting it done for the Colts when it mattered (They didn't drive for a touchdown until the end of the game. And that drive, the Colts almost exclusively ran the ball. And most of their FG drives were set up by turnovers. Some people just repeat the story, even when it's total bullshit), he actually went out and admitted that the offense (especially Luck himself) had sucked pretty much the whole game. He might not be good, but at least he doesn't lie to himself and fall for the hype that surrounds him.
28. St. Louis Rams (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 4]
They couldn't hang with a good 49ers team. That's to be expected. But not for a playoff team. And in the NFC, their 5-7 record isn't good enough. There are just too many strong teams in the NFC west and south.
29. Kansas City Chiefs [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
The final playoff team. The 5-seed. They're not really any different from the Rams. And the Rams have been lucky. Instead of worrying about losing 3 straight, the Chiefs should just be thankful to win more than 3 of their first 9. Maybe they'll win another game this season. Maybe. I thought the Colts were a bad playoff team last year (they were: 25th or so in the league. And hey, they're just as bad this year, if not worse!). But I didn't realize how much WORSE playoff teams could get. There's just so much variance in football.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
Another potential playoff team that's really bad. They can't really play defense. It's a problem. They've been decimated in a lot of games. On the other hand, they've had some good games as well. It seems a lot more reasonable for the Cowboys to be around .500 than a team like the Colts. At least the Cowboys have an offense that will lead to a huge variance in how they play. Maybe winning a bunch of the really good games isn't that unreasonable, even if they're losing games much worse in between those wins.
31. Atlanta Falcons (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
Another team that can't play defense. They're basically what the Cowboys would be if Dez Bryant got injured at the beginning of the season. A good quarterback desperately trying to win a few shootouts against bad teams, the only winnable kind of game given the defense.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
Don't kid yourself, this team is awful. They've lucked into their last two wins. Josh Gordon did whatever he wanted to their defense, and their only saving grace was a series of 3 consecutive turnovers by the Browns at their own 20 at the end of the first half. It's nice to be done with this team.
BONUS:
We see that the only playoff spot that is really up in the air is the AFC's 6th seed. And that spot is REALLY up in the air. There are 9 teams that all have a fighting chance to take it. These teams are the:
Miami Dolphins (6-6)
Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)
Tennessee Titans (5-7)
New York Jets (5-7)
San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Buffalo Bills (4-8)
Oakland Raiders (4-8)
Cleveland Browns (4-8)
Using probabilities from the algorithm of these teams winning each of their remaining games, I simulated the season's finish a million times, and I found the probability for each team of getting the 6th seed. This simulation was simplified to only look at games by these 9 teams, because the chances of any playoff scenario other than just a 6-seed for these teams is incredibly unlikely. So here are the results: As we can see, it helps a lot to be 6-6.
Dolphins: 36.7%
Ravens: 30.7%
Steelers: 8.2%
Titans: 6.4%
Jets: 6.1%
Chargers: 4.9%
Bills: 3.8%
Raiders: 1.9%
Browns: 1.3%
It's a tossup at this point. Despite the Dolphins being clear favorites, there is barely better than a one in three chance for them to make the playoffs.
No comments:
Post a Comment