Jags, 32, 27, 0.12801184595043424, 32
Falcons, 19, 31, 0.13601628773502616, 31
Cowboys, 11, 29, 0.26535191354190346, 30
Bucs, 31, 10, 0.31430210762992405, 29
Bills, 29, 12, 0.36011225536009317, 28
Rams, 22, 25, 0.3630011127166235, 27
Colts, 16, 26, 0.3751642860939558, 26
Ravens, 30, 8, 0.37714367243661884, 25
Chiefs, 23, 20, 0.3810025201179349, 24
Dolphins, 25, 15, 0.4023249273254861, 23
Redskins, 20, 22, 0.41097279026047073, 22
Raiders, 18, 23, 0.4119516662432676, 21
Jets, 26, 9, 0.43103664336687064, 20
Texans, 24, 11, 0.43116666468870146, 19
Pats, 12, 24, 0.4380997790375938, 18
Vikings, 14, 19, 0.4507626847839823, 17
Steelers, 13, 17, 0.48182210203227294, 16
Titans, 21, 13, 0.4891655423898721, 15
Bears, 5, 32, 0.49359225969732445, 14
Browns, 27, 6, 0.5527254925806013, 13
Chargers, 4, 30, 0.5797990195734258, 12
Giants, 28, 3, 0.5915985527372775, 11
Pack, 6, 28, 0.5994590730830835, 10
Panthers, 17, 7, 0.6135466968352618, 9
Lions, 7, 21, 0.6683376232490422, 8
Saints, 8, 14, 0.7260792136551181, 7
Bengals, 10, 5, 0.7304629940368006, 6
Cardinals, 15, 1, 0.7712413822602959, 5
Niners, 9, 4, 0.806848229999425, 4
Broncos, 3, 18, 0.8850078855424114, 3
Eagles, 1, 16, 0.9378928096470434, 2
Hawks, 2, 2, 1.1933136193704903, 1
And now let's get into the playoff teams
1. Seattle Seahawks
Another dominant defensive performance keeps them in first by a huge margin. Now they just need one more win or 49ers loss to clinch the 1-seed. And they don't have any more road games. Until the Superbowl, that is. Maybe then they'll allow some points in New York.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable)
They move up to second by virtue of their incredible offensive performance and doing more good things in their loss than the Broncos did in theirs. On the other hand, they just got dominated by Matt fucking Cassel. But every team is deeply flawed this year. Except the Seahawks (just kidding, their o-line sucks, Russell Wilson is just able to make up for it).
3. Denver Broncos
I don't get why they have the most trouble offensively against the worst defenses (and by worst defenses, I mean the Chargers. Pretty much). Well, actually I do. It's just that their offense is so dominant and dominant passing games have such a high level of variance that luck starts to matter more a lot more than the opposing defense. And this will happen from time to time. Luckily for them, they're still probably going to only have to win two home games to make the Superbowl. So the variance doesn't have as much of a chance to cause their downfall. This team is still the best in the AFC, and they're also in the best position in the AFC. That's why they're the odds on favorite to win the conference.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Their dominant win pretty much locks up a playoff spot, but by virtue of their awful luck being in the NFC West, they'll be a 5th seed. Maybe even 6th. This team could easily be a 1-seed in the AFC East.
5. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful)
Now we see the real shame. Three of the five best teams in the NFL are in the NFC West. And that leaves an elite team out of the playoffs when the 24th and 26th best teams have already clinched, and the 3rd worst team still has a 30% chance of making it (The 25th best team has a pretty good chance, too.). If the Falcons, who could easily finish the season as the worst team in the league, lose out, the Cardinals are out of the playoffs. That's EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO BEAT THE BEST AND 4TH BEST TEAMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THEY STILL MISS THE PLAYOFFS. Ok, I exaggerated a little bit. If the Panthers beat the Saints, the Cards need the 4th worst team in the league to beat the Saints instead of the 2nd worst team beating the Panthers. But I don't know if that situation is any better. I feel bad for this incredibly good team.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
That was a bad loss. And the Ravens win hurt them, too. But this is still an elite team, and they just need to handle their business against a bad Ravens team. And even if they blow that and the division, the Dolphins could easily lose one of their next couple games (even though the Dolphins do hold the tiebreak) and leave the Bengals with the last wild card. The second best team in the AFC isn't going to go away quietly.
7. New Orleans Saints
That game was awful. Now they're probably going to have to beat the Panthers on the road to avoid being stuck with the wild card and needing to win 3 road games to make the Superbowl.
8. Detroit Lions (Doubtful)
They dominated that game, they just made some unlucky mistakes and fell victim to a really good kicking performance. But now that I've gotten that out of the way, they've probably just blown their playoff spot that had been all but locked up two weeks ago. Not that they're out by any means, they still have almost a 30% shot at making it, but that's a dramatic dropoff from last week.
9. Carolina Panthers
With a win against the Jets, the Panthers set themselves up perfectly to take advantage when the Saints blew a game they should have won easily. Now the Panthers just need to beat the Saints at home and then finish against an awful Falcons squad. They're favorites for the 2-seed right now.
10. Green Bay Packers (Questionable)
Matt Flynn can ball. He's played almost as well as Rodgers in that offense, scoring touchdowns on every second half drive against the Cowboys. Every single start he's had for the Packers has been a stupendous performance now (with the one exception of the Thanksgiving Detroit game, but even Rodgers wouldn't have had a chance there given the way the offensive line was ripped to shreds). However, it's definitely a good thing for them that Rodgers is returning, and the Packers control their own destiny. Given how well they had played pre-injury, they should be favored against both of their opponents, the Steelers and Bears. Let's face it. The division is probably going to come down to that final Bears Packers game, where the Packers can face a win-and-they're-in situation.
12. San Diego Chargers (Out)
It's a shame that they can beat the Broncos and have a worse shot at the playoffs. It's not gone altogether, but the Ravens' and Dolphins' upsets have nearly sealed the Chargers' fate. They need to win out while the Ravens and Dolphins lose out.
14. Chicago Bears (Questionable)
They've somehow managed to find themselves with the division lead, but it's a tough road ahead. Their league-worst defense has to hold its own against elite Eagles and Packers offenses in the next two weeks. Luckily, they have their record to fall back on. They don't have to win as much. However, a 9-7 Lions team wins on tiebreaks against a 9-7 Bears team. This whole division is a toss up at this point. All the teams have around a 1/3 shot of winning.
18. New England Patriots
They really don't have a very good team without Gronk. Luckily for them, the AFC isn't good in general. In all likelihood, they're still going to make it to the second round and maybe even the conference championships. There are just so many bad AFC playoff teams that the Pats are actually one of the best.
20. New York Jets (Out)
They're done. Completely out. Mathematically eliminated. SEE-YA
23. Miami Dolphins (Questionable)
25. Baltimore Ravens (Questionable)
It's a coin flip. Both of these teams now control their own destiny. The Ravens have a real shot at even winning the division. Their matchup against the Pats next week is looking more and more winnable. On the other side of things, neither of these teams is any good. They both lucked into wins against better teams (The Ravens were a lot luckier: Their luck turned a loss into a win, rather than the Dolphins' luck that turned a coin flip into a win.). But they're in playoff position because nobody else is any good either.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
They actually have looked good recently, for the first time all season. But against teams that actually make open field tackles, it just isn't going to continue.
26. Indianapolis Colts
Another bad team. I'm done with them for this week.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful)
First, I want to say it's a good doubtful. It's still at about a third that they'll win that division. Now to my rant:
To everybody putting that loss on anybody other than the defense: Shut the fuck up right now. All I've fucking heard is that Jason Garett and Tony Romo passed way too much in the second half, and that's why they blew their 23 point halftime lead. Gregg Easterbrook had one of the stupidest articles I've seen from espn in a long time, and that's saying something. The Cowboys throw the ball. A lot. THAT'S WHY THE 30TH BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE IS .500 IN A STACKED CONFERENCE. They call plays that gain more yards for their offense. Yeah there's some variance, but you're going to get first downs a hell of a lot more when you pass a fuckton than when you run a fuckton. The WORST way to hold a lead is to run every play and go three and out every time. Putting up 10 points is a slightly subpar half, but it's league average: It's decent. And they only gave the Packers 5 drives. It's not like their passing gave the Packers all the time in the world to mount their comeback. The problem is that the defense GAVE UP A TOUCHDOWN ON EVERY ONE OF THOSE DRIVES! It absolutely is the right call to give yourself a significantly better chance at a first down with a few minutes left than to risk giving your opponent 40 more seconds (not even that, really) for their drive. At that point in the game actually, those 40 seconds aren't going to help you at all. Your opponent is hurrying up and passing every play anyway. They aren't going to have trouble scoring in time. In fact, the 40 seconds are almost as likely to help you (And what do you know? In this game, they actually did.), giving you more time on a final drive. The Cowboys absolutely were right to pass it in the second half. They just had some bad breaks and weren't able to get any stops.
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