Playoff Simulation

I ran a simulation one billion times to model how the playoffs will likely shape up. For each game, I determined each team's winning percentage by adding half the difference between their value and their opponent's value to 50%. So if the Seahawks, 1.087, played the Broncos, .98, on a neutral field, like MetLife Stadium, the Seahawks would have a .5+(.5*.107) = .5535, or 55.35% chance of winning. For home field advantage, I added and subtracted 8% to the probabilities for each team winning, since the home team wins approximately 58% of NFL games. Here are the results:

Seahawks
Championship %: 34.3398691
Making Super Bowl %: 55.7508092
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 76.8658154

Broncos
Championship %: 33.0435233
Making Super Bowl %: 65.4829082
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 84.3349107

Eagles
Championship %: 10.9044103
Making Super Bowl %: 19.079039
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 42.386774

Bengals
Championship %: 6.7012339
Making Super Bowl %: 16.0236838
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 41.2407351

Panthers
Championship %: 4.5204189
Making Super Bowl %: 11.7405614
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 44.016027

49ers
Championship %: 3.589172
Making Super Bowl %: 7.5192034
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 19.5851

Patriots
Championship %: 2.2463443
Making Super Bowl %: 9.7556032
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 46.0948754

Saints
Championship %: 1.6407802
Making Super Bowl %: 3.6245264
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 7.7325946

Chargers
Championship %: 1.2586821
Making Super Bowl %: 3.9357545
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 7.5681807

Packers
Championship %: 0.7755968
Making Super Bowl %: 2.2858606
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 9.413689

Colts
Championship %: 0.5345008
Making Super Bowl %: 2.6630465
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 11.6986642

Chiefs
Championship %: 0.4454683
Making Super Bowl %: 2.1390038
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 9.0626339