NFL Power Rankings Week 14

Beginning this week, I'm going to start publishing the numbers that my algorithm spits out for each team. As I have somewhat discussed before, these values are created to match up with a team's skill, and then they are scaled to have approximately the same mean and standard deviation as teams' pythagorean wins. This gives us an idea of what the records should be. However, they do not perfectly lie on a scale from 0 to 1 because one team is so good that the scalings gave them a skill-based "record" of over 1. Also, the adjustments were determined before the season, and due to the nonlinearity of my algorithm (small improvements in offensive skill can lead to huge gains in scoring), the mean is not exactly .5 either (.534).

Overall Rank	Team	Overall Team Skill	Offensive Rank	Defensive Rank
1	Seattle Seahawks	1.22	2	2
2	Denver Broncos	.945	1	21
3	Philadelphia Eagles	.925	4	15
4	New Orleans Saints	.826	5	13
5	Arizona Cardinals	.790	16	1
6	Cincinnati Bengals	.785	9	6
7	San Francisco 49ers	.784	10	4
8	Detroit Lions	.678	8	22
9	Green Bay Packers	.645	6	27
10	Carolina Panthers	.607	19	7
11	Cleveland Browns	.593	28	3
12	New York Giants	.587	27	5
13	San Diego Chargers	.538	3	32
14	New York Jets	.497	26	8
15	New England Patriots	.479	12	20
16	Tennessee Titans	.471	23	12
17	Chicago Bears	.460	7	31
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	.446	13	23
19	Houston Texans	.443	21	16
20	Minnesota Vikings	.430	17	19
21	Oakland Raiders	.424	20	17
22	Miami Dolphins	.419	25	14
23	Buffalo Bills	.399	29	10
24	Baltimore Ravens	.397	31	9
25	Kansas City Chiefs	.360	24	18
26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	.358	30	11
27	Indianapolis Colts	.340	14	28
28	Washington Redskins	.331	18	24
29	St. Louis Rams	.303	22	26
30	Atlanta Falcons	.242	11	30
31	Dallas Cowboys	.236	15	29
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	.131	32	25

So now let's start with the rankings:

1. Seattle Seahawks

As we can see, there's a really big gap between them and the rest of the league. They dominated the 49ers on Sunday.

2. Denver Broncos

They were really lucky to win by as much as they did, but that's a great offense they have up there. Up, as in a mile above the ground, where 64 yard field goals are possible.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

That was an amazing game in the Philadelphia blizzard. Once it stopped snowing so hard, they just took off, and nothing was going to stop them. And by them, I mainly mean LeSean McCoy.

4. New Orleans Saints

Really good win back home Sunday night. They got to Cam enough to really mess up the Panthers' offense.

5. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful)

Another dominant win by a very good team. But still a team that is unlucky enough to have almost no shot at the playoffs. They really need a collapse from Carolina against the Jets. But we'll get to that.

6. Cincinnati Bengals 

Dominant win against a team they should beat. This is clearly the second best team in the AFC, and they have a good shot at the 2nd seed (although not as good a shot as they should have. But we'll get to that, too.).

7. San Francisco 49ers

They got really lucky. However, I will say that although don't know what to chalk up to luck and what to chalk up to home field advantage, they also played as well as you can play against one of the best teams of all time. So props to them for that.

8. Detroit Lions (Probable)

It's a much uglier probable than last week. Even though they, the Packers, and the Bears all experienced the expected results (at least by me), the solidifying of those results keeps alive an ever-more-real chance of this team blowing the division lead.

9. Green Bay Packers (Doubtful)

It's still doubtful, and a bad one at that, but it's a better doubtful than last week. That's all they can do now: Just go one game at a time.

10. Carolina Panthers

They still are set to cruise into the playoffs. But a more-likely-than-people-think upset vs. the Jets could leave the door open a little too wide for the Cardinals to sneak in with a win vs. SF in week 17. In this scenario, the Cardinals first beat the Titans and lose to the Seahawks, and the Panthers lose their matchup vs. the Saints before beating the Falcons. However, if the Panthers beat the Jets, even a win against the Seahawks won't be able to get the Cardinals past the Panthers and into the playoffs (hence the Cardinals' barely-doubtful status despite being one of the best teams in the league).

13. San Diego Chargers (Doubtful: 4.4%)

They kept their playoff hopes alive with a win against the Giants, but it's still very much on the edge, especially after wins by the Ravens and Dolphins. Almost everything still needs to break right, but the upcoming matchups look good.

14. New York Jets (Doubtful: 5.7%)

See Chargers, San Diego.

15. New England Patriots

After getting dominated by the Browns, they lucked out. Kind of like the 49ers. But they've basically won their division anyway. Although the team they're putting out on the field now without Gronk could be a bottom 10 squad.

16. Tennessee Titans (Out: 1.5%)

They played the Broncos tougher than the final score showed, and they barely had a winning chance to begin with, but the Dolphins and Ravens pretty much locked them out of the playoffs.

17. Chicago Bears (Doubtful)

It's still doubtful, but it's a better doubtful than last week (and than for the Packers). Everything needs to keep going right. Despite having evened it up with the Lions in the standings, they still have to face a tougher schedule and worse tiebreaks.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers (Out: .1%)

This is a worse out than the Titans. They're 5-8 right now, but they're basically just like the Jags and Browns. Absolutely everything has to go right. Starting with Antonio Brown going back in time and not stepping out of bounds on one of the most amazing plays I've ever seen in the NFL.

22. Miami Dolphins (Questionable: 51.6%), 

24. Baltimore Ravens (Questionable: 36.5%)

Things are looking good for the Dolphins, so long as Brown doesn't actually pull an electron and go back in time. And the Ravens had a win that might have been just as improbable as the one Pittsburgh  almost had. As well as the tiebreak over the Dolphins. The problem? They finish against the Lions, Patriots, and Bengals. With the Lions and Bengals on the road. Those two are going to be incredibly difficult. On the other hand, the Dolphins get the Patriots, Bills, and Jets. With only the Bills on the road. All those games are very winnable. But they need to win MORE than the Ravens. 

23. Buffalo Bills (Out: .1%)

I messed up. The one team I didn't want to talk about was the one team whose data I entered wrong into my simulation last week. I gave them an extra win. Whoops. But it's all settled now. They're really out.

25. Kansas City Chiefs

That's the second game they've won all season where they didn't just luck out. Good for them. They still could miss the playoffs though, I have to throw out. I mean, it's less likely than the Bills making it, but still. It could happen.

27. Indianapolis Colts

They did a good job messing with my algorithm and putting up good stats in garbage time. Not that it's a significant number of plays, but still. They're in the playoffs now. And unfortunately, either they or the Chiefs WON'T be immediately OUT of the playoffs. They play in week 16, and in all likelihood, it will be a preview of the wild card round.

31. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful)

Hey, they did a good job running the ball. Against one of the worst run defenses I've seen in a long time. But they did a really bad job of not getting blown out. That defense is horrendous. They still have a reasonable playoff shot though. All the tiebreakers are theirs, even if the Eagles beat them in week 17. But all the skill is not. They're going to end up having to win that week 17 matchup. And that's just not a likely outcome.