Now we come to the second season of my power rankings.
Before starting I had one big question to figure out: whether or not last
season’s results should count this season. On one hand, it’s a huge amount of
data that IS relevant to determining how good these teams are, and since it’s
averaged over a 16 game season, a lot of the random fluctuations in performance
have dissipated. However, we have to realize these aren’t the same teams as
last season. The best example is the Falcons. This may have been one of the
worst teams in the league last year, but this year, they’re healthier. They
really are a different team, and if their offense really is as good as it
performed in week 1, they shouldn’t be punished all this season for being
injured during the last one. So I tried to find a balance. I weighted all the
games last season as 2 toward this season. So each 2013 game gets counted an
eighth as much as normal. The early season variance won’t be able to take too
much of a hold, and the overall rankings won’t be too affected by the 2013
numbers if they’re shown to be consistent over a number of games in 2014.
But let’s face it, this isn’t a perfect system by any means.
It’s hard to tell after week 1. These rankings are gonna be maybe 30% last
season’s skill, 15% this season’s skill, 15% last season’s luck, and 40% this
season’s luck (yes, I’m just making up these numbers, but there’s a lot of
truth to them). Sorry, those are the wrong percentages. I meant 10% luck, 20%
skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, and 50% pain. Or something
like that. Don’t remember those. Just the name.
But anyway, as you can see, these numbers aren’t THAT trustworthy.
They’ll be way more reliable even just next week though. I also put the
rankings based on just 2014 in parentheses.
And without further ado, here are your 2014 week 1 power
rankings. Ok, a little further ado. Everybody else calls these the week 2 power
rankings. Everybody else is wrong. Now here we go:
1. Seattle Seahawks (6)
The best team last year went out and dominated a team whose
ranking last year was affected by injury in a major way. It also wasn’t the
kind of dominance some other teams showed, where they just put up some huge
numbers on a couple big plays, and we all know a fair chunk of that is just
pure luck. The Seahawks are actually just this good. Time will tell for our
second place team.
2. Detroit Lions (1)
The big week one winner. Calvin Johnson was unstoppable, the
defense was stifling, and the Giants were steamrolled. But we’ve seen the Lions
have games like this before. Like against the Packers last year. It’s hard to
tell how much they’ll be able to keep it up, but until they fall off, they’ve
dominated enough to overcome last season’s mediocrity and earn the number 2
ranking.
3. Arizona Cardinals (4)
Good last year, and still really good this year. The
Chargers were lucky to get the lead they did before the Cards came storming
back. I’ll admit, I questioned how the Cardinals’ defense could hold together
after Docket’s injury, but so far, it looks promising for them; the Chargers
have one of the best offensive units in the league, and they were shut down for
most of the game.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (7)
The other good AFC team. Let’s start giving this team some
more credit. They might have Andy Dalton instead of Tom Brady, but the Patriots
suck. They got killed by the fucking Dolphins. If the AFC is a two team race
this year like everybody predicts, the Broncos had better make sure they’re
looking in the right direction. Northeast. Ok, the same direction. Just not as
far in that direction.
5. Denver Broncos (15)
They had a bad second half against the Colts, but Peyton
Manning. They couldn’t run the ball very well. But Peyton Manning. They were
incapable of covering a 35 year old wide receiver coming off an ACL injury. But
– well, you get the idea. The rest of the team might have a lot more flaws than
it seemed after last season’s dominance and after their spectacular offseason,
but as long as they have the best quarterback in the league, they’ll be a
Superbowl contender.
6. New York Jets (2)
The second of the 3 big winners of week 1. They looked
pretty good. Or Oakland might just be really bad. But shutting down any NFL
team as well as they shut down Oakland is impressive. Best defensive
performance of week 1. Now they get the Packers. We’ll see if they can defend
them as well as the Seahawks did. My guess is no. But right now my algorithm
ranks them as having the 3rd best defense in the league (2nd
is the Cardinals, and you know who’s first). They might have as good a shot as
anybody else (and by else, I mean besides the Seahawks).
7. San Francisco 49ers (14)
I was very pleasantly surprised by how TERRIBLY this team
played against an AWFUL Cowboys team. Yeah, they won by double digits. But the
Cowboys turned the ball over 4 times in the first half. That’s essentially all
luck, remember? You’d better win by double digits when your opponent does that.
The 49ers are a team that could fall off this year. Even if they’re a little
better than average, it probably won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in
the NFC West. And I’m not so sure they’re even that. Ok, they’re above average
if we count the AFC, but that’s barely even a conference. I mean, the PATRIOTS
went 12-4 in the AFC. The COLTS went 11-5. Those teams are BAD. That conference
is BAD. So I guess that’s just BAD luck for the 49ers.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5)
Ben Fuckfuckfuckfuck looked REALLY good. Especially in the
first half. This team looked pretty alive offensively, and while the Browns
offense, especially passing, may be a shit show, they did have one of the
better defenses in the league last year. The Steelers are looking like a good
choice for a wild card team at the moment. By virtue of being in the AFC and
not being terrible.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (10)
That was a pretty bad first half against a pretty bad
opponent, even when you acknowledge that the turnovers are mainly luck. But speaking
of turns, they really turned it around in the second half. No need to worry
about this team anymore. Unless you’re not an Eagles fan. Then be very worried.
Chip Kelly is essentially a
football god.
10. Tennessee Titans (8)
The Titans looked good. Against the Chiefs. And this blog
has known for a long time how bad the Chiefs actually are. Even when they were
undefeated. But hey, beating down bad teams is what you gotta do in the
AFC. This Titans team is first in their
division right now. That might not change all season.
11. Minnesota Vikings (9)
They weren’t that bad last year. And the Rams WERE that bad
last year. And the Vikings got a little better. And they got lucky to win by so
much. But they still completely outplayed St. Louis. And they have TEDDY
MOTHERFUCKING BRIDGEWATER THE GREATEST FOOTBALL PLAYER IN THE WORLD. Just
kidding, that’s JJ MOTHERFUCKING WATT, but they do have the same middle name.
Anyway I really do believe in the Bridge. Enough to call him the Bridge. No
clue if anyone else calls him that.
12. Carolina Panthers (18)
They were pretty good last year, but not great. Then they
lost all their receivers. And their quarterback. But Kelvin Benjamin looks
really good, and they weren’t even that bad without Cam. This team should be
fine. Fine enough to make the playoffs in the NFC, I don’t know. Because you
have to be really really good to make the playoffs in the NFC.
13. Miami Dolphins (12)
They beat the Pats. Whoop-de-doo. But they actually beat
them pretty bad. And that’s actually legit. It’s just one game, but the whole
AFC East actually seems reasonable. Except for the Pats, who are in clear last.
But they have Brady, they’ll get a few wins in that Conference. Oh right, back
to the Dolphins. Yeah, they’re ok. I can definitely see why I got bored talking
about them.
14. New Orleans Saints (25)
That was a fun game. They couldn’t seem to play much
defense, but there’s no way it’s actually as bad as it looked against the
Falcons. It’s one bad game. Luck will even out.
15. Buffalo Bills (13)
They played really well, straight up. Absolutely deserved
that win. But there’s no way the Bills offense is ACTUALLY any good, right? The
Bears were worst in the league last year on D, maybe they just didn’t get much
better.
16. San Diego Chargers (23)
They couldn’t get much of anything going against the Cards.
Unusual for what was the third best offense in the league last year. But the
Cards were also the third best defense, so you can’t blame the Chargers THAT
much. That’s why they only dropped to 16.
17. Atlanta Falcons (3)
The third and final big winner of week 1. Matt Ryan just
looked unstoppable. That is all. The defense still sucked. They look like a
team that’s going to play a lot of high scoring games.
18. Indianapolis Colts (16)
I wonder if this is the highest the Colts have ever been
ranked. I don’t really want to go back and check. But either way, it’s a step
forward for this team. They played pretty well for half that game. Time will tell
if they can keep it up.
19. Green Bay Packers (30)
I’m still assuming this team is better than 19. Their
ranking is just a product of last year’s injuries and having to play the
Seahwawks week 1. But it would be REALLY funny if they got killed by the Jets,
too.
20. Cleveland Browns (28)
Another team with a big comeback that fell short. But in
this case, they were just completely outplayed and lucky to come as close as
they did. Johnny won’t help. That dude just isn’t good. But there’s still hope
for them that the defense will look more like it did last year than it did in
week 1. And the running game looked kinda promising. But let’s face it, things
just look good for the Browns when we pick and choose the good parts. And we
know that the best part is the conference they play in.
21. Chicago Bears (24)
It’s possible that the defense didn’t get much better from
last year. This could be a problem. The hope was that it would become mediocre
and BrandonMarshall/AlshonJeffery/MattForte would just dominate enough to make
this team a contender. But it didn’t look good against the Bills.
22. Baltimore Ravens (22)
I don’t know about you, but this team just feels 22. But not
in the good way. Or maybe in a really good way, because everybody else is
worse. Hell, why shouldn’t 22 make the playoffs in the AFC? Ok, maybe it won’t,
but the point is it could.
23. Houston Texans (11)
They looked a little better. And by they, I don’t really
mean the Texans as a team, because most of that team is bad. I really just mean
JJ Watt. I feel like I don’t talk enough about him. But you know how he’s
always just way better than anybody else on the field. And how it’s never even
close? Yeah, that’s all. I mean, Watt else is there to say? Oh right, that he’s
the best football player in the world. Can never say that too many times. He’s
the best football player in the world. And he’s also a really nice person. He’s
almost too perfect. Like Tay.
24. Dallas Cowboys (19)
That game was not as bad as it could have been.
25. New England Patriots (26)
I’ve talked about them enough. In fact, I’ve probably
mentioned already that they’re in clear last in one of the worst divisions in
football.
26. St. Louis Rams (29)
Yeah, they’re bad. It doesn’t actually matter if Sam
Bradford is healthy.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (17)
Congrats, you played reasonably good defense against a
Panthers team without Cam Newton. And lost. But you know how much I care about
wins and losses.
28. Washington Redskins (20)
It wasn’t THAT bad. Robert actually played pretty well. It’s
just that JJ played better. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team score only 6
points before when their quarterback had a completion percentage within two points of 80.
29. New York Giants (31)
Now we get to the loser of the really really bad game this
week. Their offense was always bad, but I don’t know if their D will look more
like it did last season or like it did week 1. I’m leaning towards somewhere in
the middle. Maybe even slightly above average. This game was at least somewhat
a fluke.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (21)
To have the first half they did against the Eagles is
impressive, even though they completely blew it. They’re probably a much better
team this year. Still really bad, but much better.
31. Kansas City Chiefs (27)
They just aren’t good. I guess the defense is ok. Ok, not
good. Probably not even average. But
serviceable in the AFC. The offense on the other hand…
32. Oakland Raiders (32)
There’s no excuse for playing as bad as they did. There’s no
hope for this team. Actually there is. Week 1 could have been a fluke, and they
could be an average AFC team. Which means they could still get lucky and make
they playoffs. But let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.
Ok, so I’ve been bashing the American Football Conference A
LOT in this post. And here’s why. I’ll show you the final power rankings from
last season with only the conferences shown, not the team names. (The week one
rankings are just a case of winning teams going high in the rankings and losing
teams going low, and most games were within the conference, so those rankings
don’t really have a chance to show the disparity the way last year’s rankings
do.)
And here they are:
1. NFC
2. NFC
3. AFC
4. NFC
5. NFC
6. AFC
7. NFC
8. NFC
9. AFC
10. NFC
11. NFC
12. NFC
13. AFC
14. AFC
15. AFC
16. NFC
17. AFC
18. AFC
19. NFC
20. NFC
21. AFC
22. AFC
23. AFC
24. AFC
25. AFC
26. AFC
27. AFC
28. NFC
29. AFC
30. NFC
31. NFC
32. AFC
Notice how there are way more NFCs at the top. If the NFL
just sent the 12 best teams to the playoffs, there would be 9 NFC teams and 3
AFC teams. But that’s obviously not how it works, and this is why terrible teams
make the playoffs in that conference.
