Now we're coming up on the playoffs, and the better teams are showing themselves. Also, I'm back from school, so I have a lot more time to play with ESPN's playoff machine and discuss the most pressing scenarios. Starting this week I will give playoff chances like an injury report (>80%: no comment. 65-80%: Probable. 35%-65%: Questionable. 2.5%-35%: Doubtful. <2.5%: Out). Any team listed as out will not be mentioned the next week (unless the improbable events conspire to bring the team to Questionable status). Because they're out. [Brackets count the playoff teams we have set as we go through the list.]
1. Seattle Seahawks [NFC: 1, AFC: 0]
Yeah, it's not close.
2. Denver Broncos [NFC: 1, AFC: 1]
Peyton Manning's bombs were perfect on Sunday. He's too good. It just didn't feel fair when the Broncos were on offense.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable) [NFC: 2, AFC: 1]
Nick Foles just keeps getting it done. It felt like a flukey win against the Cardinals, with a turnover margin as big as the victory margin, but that was a matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL. Getting slightly outplayed by an elite team, which is exactly what the Eagles did, isn't such a bad sign. Especially when you still get a win out of it.
4. Cincinnati Bengals [NFC: 2, AFC: 2]
This is the most balanced team in the NFL, with the league's only top 10 offense and defense*, yet they are flying way under the radar. They need to be taken seriously.
*By my algorithm: 9th and 4th respectively. Also, this is ignoring the Seahawks, who are top 3 in both. And top 1 in special teams (by a lot), which isn't even part of my algorithm. But the Seahawks are in a different category altogether at this point.
5. New Orleans Saints [NFC: 3, AFC: 2]
That was bad. Really bad. I don't care who they are, or how loud it gets, or how much the earth shakes, you can't get beaten that bad. As an interesting note, once one fun stat gets introduced, everybody loves taking it, even when there are more notable ones that get ignored. For example, there was a huge deal about how this game ended Brees's 43 game 200-yard streak. But it also ended his 106 game 150-yard streak. Which is a hell of a lot more substantial. Anyway, the Saints have played really well in most of their other games, so they can their body of work keeps them in the top 5.
6. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful) [NFC: 3, AFC: 2]
This team is for real. Unfortunately, it's going to be tough for them to sneak into the playoffs given their road matchup with Seattle in week 16. Let's look at how hard it is (assuming they lose to the Hawks. If they can actually pull that off, they have a good shot): Even if they beat the 49ers week 17 and both teams finish 10-6, the 49ers have the tiebreak. That would be the result if the Cardinals finished 3-1 and the 49ers finished 2-2 (only needing to beat the lowly Falcons and Bucs. And they're actually 2.5 point favorites at home against the Seahawks next week). The Cardinals have a couple other options though. First, if the Seahawks beat the 49ers and then the Giants, they will have already clinched the NFC's 1-seed and may rest some starters against the Cardinals. Also, if the Panthers struggle against the Saints and end up finishing 1-3, any 49ers record other than 10-6 will allow the Cardinals to beat out the Panthers via head-to-head tiebreak. This is about as bleak as things can be for a team as good as the Cardinals, but there is still a glimmer of hope.
7. Detroit Lions (Probable) [NFC: 4, AFC: 2]
I don't care who was quarterbacking for the Packers, that win was impressive. They dominated in the rushing game and passing game, on offense and defense. It's not like the Packers-sans-Rodgers were looking this bad in other games. The entire Lions team, and especially the defensive line, just played incredibly well.
8. San Francisco 49ers [NFC: 5, AFC: 2]
There's no doubt this team is good. The difference between 5 and 8 on this list is practically nil. And as has been heavily discussed above, they have a very good shot to make the playoffs, even if they don't win either of their winnable-but-tough divisional games.
9. Green Bay Packers (Doubtful) [NFC: 5, AFC: 2]
This team is in a similar situations to the Cardinals (very good, but will have a tough time making the playoffs; however, the Packers are not nearly as hopeless as the Cards.), but for completely different reasons, which are trivial enough that they don't really need to be discussed. Instead, let's look at how hard it's going to be for them to get into the tournament. They really have to win out, but that isn't so unreasonable, given that they just have what looks like one more Rodgers-less game, and that's against the awful Falcons defense. But that only leaves them at 9-6-1. And that's almost certainly going to be worse than the loser of the Saints-Falcons battle (the wild card of those two would need to lose out in order to go 9-7), as well as the 49ers. This leaves the NFC North title as the Packers' only realistic hope. But if the Lions go 2-2 in their final 4 games, the Packers will beat them out. Against a pretty tough slate for the Lions (at Eagles, Ravens, Giants, at Vikings), that's not unreasonable. But winning 4 games might be. Even if they are 70% favorites in all the games, which might be pushing it, that leaves less than a 25% chance of winning out. The Packers need both that AND the Lions' failures. It's still a better situation than the Cardinals are in, though.
10. Carolina Panthers [NFC: 6, AFC: 2. The NFC playoff teams have largely been decided already.]
Good win against the Bucs: convincing enough to finally bump the Panthers into the top 10. And they are in great position to fight for a 2-seed. Interestingly enough, given the weakness of the NFC North and East, the Saints and Panthers have a good chance of playing AGAIN in the second round of the playoffs (winnner gets 2-seed, loser gets the 5-seed, both road teams win in the first round).
11. Cleveland Browns (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
This is a team that might actually have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Cardinals. OK, not really, but the Cardinals' path is really hard. It's not that unreasonable for an 8-8 Browns team (that means winning out) to get the 6-seed in the AFC. Then again, they're playing the Patriots on the road next week. But that's actually a winnable game. The Browns defense is really good. (Note that the Browns are the 3rd best team in the AFC.)
12. New York Giants (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
They have a good defense. Really good. But that offense is terrible. And they won't make the playoffs. Here's why: Their path to the playoffs pretty much has to go through the division title. Beating out the Cowboys shouldn't be so bad. But the Eagles are good, and they get to play 3 mediocre-at-best teams (Vikings, Bears, Cowboys) and get the Lions at home. Even if the Eagles go 2-2 in those games (beating the Cowboys), they would beat out a Giants team that finishes 4-0. Now let's look at the best case scenario for the Giants (be warned: It isn't pretty). What if the Eagles AND Cowboys lost ALL their games going into their week 17 matchup? Then, if the Giants win out, they win the division. Unfortunately, they host the Seahawks in week 15 and then travel to Detroit in week 16. They'll be lucky to win one of those, but let's say they do, and they manage to win their other two games as well. Then they STILL can only make the playoffs if the Eagles and Cowboys TIE. Yeah, the Giants are done.
13. San Diego Chargers (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
They lost to a good Bengals team by 7. There's not much shame in that. But that defense is shameful. They've been carried by Rivers all year. And in the AFC, they are not out of the playoff hunt by any means. They do play Denver though, on the road, so it'll be tough to finish better than 3-1 with an 8-8 record. And they don't beat pretty much anyone on tiebreaks. But the AFC is bad enough that 8-8 could win the 6-seed without even needing tiebreaks.
14. New York Jets (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 2]
Things are looking really bad right now. They still have a good defense, but the offense is completely falling apart. They're in pretty much the same position as the Chargers right now, except with a worse team, an easier schedule, and the tiebreak over the Chargers, but they still lack the tiebreaks over the AFC North teams.
15. New England Patriots [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
The offense has obviously gotten a lot better since Gronk and Amendola have gotten healthy, and that has balanced out the injuries to the defense. But this team was never that good. We tend to give much more credit to comebacks than is deserved. The truth is, if you were better, you wouldn't have needed to come back. The Patriots are about as good as the Texans. It doesn't matter when each team was outplaying the other.
16. Houston Texans (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
They're not mathematically out of the playoffs, and they're not a bad team either. Just one of the most unlucky that I've ever seen. It's too bad, really. The playoffs are better when they include the best player in the world.
17. Baltimore Ravens (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
They score just enough for the defense to win games for them, and right now, they're in playoff position. It's going to be tough for them to stay there though. In their final 3 games, they travel to both the Bengals and the Lions, and they host the Patriots. Even their game against the Vikings next week isn't a gimme.
18. Tennessee Titans (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
While they have to face the Broncos and Cardinals the next two weeks, they finish by traveling to Jacksonville and then hosting Houston. Those games are winnable for this solid (at least on defense, but even their offense isn't horrendous) team.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
The Steelers' offense has improved enough to actually become the driving force behind this team whose defense used to be elite but has since fallen apart. They still are right in the middle of the playoff race though. If they can get a win out of their games against tough Bengals and Packers teams, they get a chance to fend off the Browns and Dolphins, two teams that are also playing for that AFC 6-seed.
20. Chicago Bears (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
That defense, which hasn't even put up a fight against the run for a few games now, looks like it cost this team a playoff spot. They don't have the tiebreaker against the Lions, so they are in pretty much the same boat as the Packers (except worse team, better record. But the same thing needs to happen for each of them.).
21. Miami Dolphins (Questionable) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
After dismantling the Jets, the Dolphins are in a better situation than anyone to claim the final AFC playoff spot. It still is tough, but all their games are winnable, even their home game against the Patriots. And that's the hardest one. The others are against the Steelers, Bills, and Jets. Maybe most importantly, they have the best conference winning percentage of all the teams fighting for the 6-seed. That could prove to be huge in the end.
22. Oakland Raiders (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
While they can still fight, they are farther than their competitors from that coveted AFC 6-seed. At 4-8, they pretty much need to win out, but they have to play the Broncos, who could easily still be fighting to keep the 1-seed from the Patriots. In all likelihood, this path is just too tough for a Raiders team that has been able all season to fight harder than anybody expected for a gutted roster.
23. Buffalo Bills (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
Down, but not quite out just yet. Although I really do hate writing about this team. I was thinking about changing the "out" threshold just so I could knock them out sooner. But there's still too much that could happen for the Bills in this wide open race. Unfortunately for them, they blew a really good game in Toronto. They had outplayed Atlanta all day, rushing for almost 200 yards, and they just ran into some bad luck. If not for that, the Bills would actually be the third most likely team to claim the 6-seed. But it was not to be.
24. Minnesota Vikings (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
We don't have to worry about playoffs here, so we can just look at their horrendous pass defense! Of course AD was going to run all over the Bears, but should you really let Alshon Jeffery get 249 yards on you? Back to the offense though, they've actually gotten reasonable quarterback play for a few weeks in a row now. But of course it's the running game that wins for them (and a little special teams and luck).
25. Washington Redskins (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
They're really out. Mathematically out. They were out a week ago. That's hard to do. I mean, even the Texans aren't out yet. But in the NFC, both those wild cards are going to require good records. Maybe next year though, once Robert can be fully healthy again. But for now, SEE-YA.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 3]
The offense reverted to their old awful ways against a dominant front 7. Though Glennon was not as bad as one might expect from a loss that bad, or from his QBR (lol). The real problem was blocking.
27. Indianapolis Colts [NFC: 6, AFC: 4]
They'll make it. And I am starting to like Andrew Luck more though. Not as a quarterback, of course. But when everybody (especially Bill Cowher. What an asshole) was doting on him for getting it done for the Colts when it mattered (They didn't drive for a touchdown until the end of the game. And that drive, the Colts almost exclusively ran the ball. And most of their FG drives were set up by turnovers. Some people just repeat the story, even when it's total bullshit), he actually went out and admitted that the offense (especially Luck himself) had sucked pretty much the whole game. He might not be good, but at least he doesn't lie to himself and fall for the hype that surrounds him.
28. St. Louis Rams (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 4]
They couldn't hang with a good 49ers team. That's to be expected. But not for a playoff team. And in the NFC, their 5-7 record isn't good enough. There are just too many strong teams in the NFC west and south.
29. Kansas City Chiefs [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
The final playoff team. The 5-seed. They're not really any different from the Rams. And the Rams have been lucky. Instead of worrying about losing 3 straight, the Chiefs should just be thankful to win more than 3 of their first 9. Maybe they'll win another game this season. Maybe. I thought the Colts were a bad playoff team last year (they were: 25th or so in the league. And hey, they're just as bad this year, if not worse!). But I didn't realize how much WORSE playoff teams could get. There's just so much variance in football.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful) [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
Another potential playoff team that's really bad. They can't really play defense. It's a problem. They've been decimated in a lot of games. On the other hand, they've had some good games as well. It seems a lot more reasonable for the Cowboys to be around .500 than a team like the Colts. At least the Cowboys have an offense that will lead to a huge variance in how they play. Maybe winning a bunch of the really good games isn't that unreasonable, even if they're losing games much worse in between those wins.
31. Atlanta Falcons (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
Another team that can't play defense. They're basically what the Cowboys would be if Dez Bryant got injured at the beginning of the season. A good quarterback desperately trying to win a few shootouts against bad teams, the only winnable kind of game given the defense.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (Out) [NFC: 6, AFC: 5]
Don't kid yourself, this team is awful. They've lucked into their last two wins. Josh Gordon did whatever he wanted to their defense, and their only saving grace was a series of 3 consecutive turnovers by the Browns at their own 20 at the end of the first half. It's nice to be done with this team.
BONUS:
We see that the only playoff spot that is really up in the air is the AFC's 6th seed. And that spot is REALLY up in the air. There are 9 teams that all have a fighting chance to take it. These teams are the:
Miami Dolphins (6-6)
Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)
Tennessee Titans (5-7)
New York Jets (5-7)
San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Buffalo Bills (4-8)
Oakland Raiders (4-8)
Cleveland Browns (4-8)
Using probabilities from the algorithm of these teams winning each of their remaining games, I simulated the season's finish a million times, and I found the probability for each team of getting the 6th seed. This simulation was simplified to only look at games by these 9 teams, because the chances of any playoff scenario other than just a 6-seed for these teams is incredibly unlikely. So here are the results: As we can see, it helps a lot to be 6-6.
Dolphins: 36.7%
Ravens: 30.7%
Steelers: 8.2%
Titans: 6.4%
Jets: 6.1%
Chargers: 4.9%
Bills: 3.8%
Raiders: 1.9%
Browns: 1.3%
It's a tossup at this point. Despite the Dolphins being clear favorites, there is barely better than a one in three chance for them to make the playoffs.
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 12
1. Seattle Seahawks
At this point, it's not close. The Seahawks are first by a bigger margin than anybody this season other than the Broncos at the very beginning. But here, we've seen 11 games. There's a lot less variance. This is the best team in football.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
That offense with Nick Foles at the helm is unstoppable. And speaking of not getting stops, the Eagles' defense, but this team feels like the Redskins last year. They're just going to keep winning. Until they play the Seahawks in the playoffs.
3. Denver Broncos
That was Peyton's worst game in years. I don't care about the comeback, that was just a matter of when each team had bad enough luck to cough up the ball repeatedly. But Manning wasn't hitting anyone. It was ugly. For a quarterback who didn't have less than 7 yards per attempt in any game all season (for reference, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck are averaging 6.7 on the year (ok, those guys are 27th and 28th in the league, respectively, but still)), throwing for 4.2 ypa is atrocious. One-Ring-Peyton has never done that bad. I don't know if it was a product of the cold, or if it was just a fluke of all his bad throws happening in the same game, but this broncos offense looks a lot more mortal than it used to. Despite their running game dominance. Now their defensive woes are relevant again.
4. New Orleans Saints
Their defense has been playing a lot better recently, and while they're still worse than average, they can stop some people. And that's all they need with Drew Brees throwing the ball. I mean, not on Monday, they'll probably get blown out (possibly in the snow), but against any team that's not way better than everybody else in the league, I like their chances.
5. Green Bay Packers
Their defense sucks, but they might not lose once Aaron Rodgers comes back. I still think they'll make the playoffs, and nobody's going to want to play them. Except the Seahawks, but as I mentioned for the Saints, they don't count. On the other hand, they made BY FAR THE WORST 4TH DOWN DECISION I'VE EVER SEEN to completely blow their game against Minnesota. They had 4th and goal from the 2, on the first drive in OT, and they kicked a field goal. Let's look at that. First, consider how bad kicking is in general on that first OT drive with the new rule in place. It's so bad, in fact, that it's been shown to be better to punt from your opponent's 30 on 4th and 20 than to kick (or go for it, because, you know, 4th and 20). It's also so bad to kick from the 2 even not in overtime, the idea behind that being the amazing field position you get even if you don't convert. In the Packers' case, they combined both awful mistakes. It was actually about as good for them to FAIL TO CONVERT ON 4TH than to kick the field goal. I hope that decision costs them a playoff spot.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
After that rant, we can take a more chill team. They're pretty good, not spectacular, and while the injury hurts, it seems like they can hold it together without Geno Atkins. But they don't threaten anyone the way the top 5 do. Or even maybe the next couple teams. It's NFC west time.
7. San Francisco 49ers
They've been on this on-the-verge level all year. They aren't the team they were last year, but they have a pretty good offense and defense, just like the Bengals, and they can do some of the spectacular things the Bengals can't. Then again, they also have the potential to poop the bed more than the Bengals do. Sometimes they can't pass. Like, at all. Like, worse than Peyton's game on Sunday. And multiple times, too.
8. Arizona Cardinals
What can I say, they're good! That is a top 3 defense in the league, maybe top 1. And they just put up a fortyburger on the Colts. Too bad they play in the wrong division.
9. Detroit Lions
There's way too much unpredictability with this team. They're based on just throwing to a wide receiver who is WAY better than anyone else he goes up against. Sometimes, that leads to amazing things. Other times, Stafford just throws 4 picks. Their defense doesn't help things.
10. New York Giants
Remember when they couldn't run the ball at all? They just ran all over the Cowboys. But it still wasn't enough. Kinda like the Broncos' game. That D is still really good though, unlike the Broncos. But, you know, wrong Manning.
11. Carolina Panthers
They've been here for a while now. They looked bad against the Dolphins, which they haven't done for a while now. But they've been an above-average-but-not-great team for a while now. Including last year.
12. Cleveland Browns
Still love their defense! Their offense, on the other hand, has been giving up almost as many points recently.
13. New York Jets
Kinda like the Browns. They do some awful things on O.
14. San Diego Chargers
The opposite. They just gave up almost 40 to a bottom-five offense in the league. Luckily, they can throw. Really well.
15. New England Patriots
I'd say good win, but it wasn't. But good job stopping Peyton. Not so good against the run though. Or running (without fumbling). The passing game is doing a lot better with Gronk and Amendola back.
16. Houston Texans
Just like the Broncos, they had a flukey bad game passing. This team has been unlucky all season (since the first couple games). If this team played the Jags 10 more times, they'd probably win 8 of them. If you just look at wins, of course you won't see a difference between the Jags and Texans. But they're a lot more that happens in football that can demonstrate the difference between a bad loser, like the Jags, and an unlucky loser, like the Texans.
17. Tennessee Titans
Good for you, you beat the Raiders. But it took a +2 turnover differential and a last minute touchdown. Face it, you were the worse team on Sunday. The better team this season, but worse on Sunday. But you won, and I'm glad the better team won.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
This time it took a +4 turnover margin. Count yourselves lucky. Because you sure as hell aren't good.
19. Minnesota Vikings
Great game on the ground on O. On D, not so much. But they were saved by the horrendous 4th down decision, so they could escape with a tie. Ponder has actually been playing reasonably well recently.
20. Oakland Raiders
I don't have anything to say about you. You lost to a team that lost to the fucking Jags. (Just like the Seahawks lost to a team (Colts) that lost to a team (Rams) that lost to a team (Titans) that lost to the Jags. Or lost to a team (Colts) that lost to a team (Chargers) that lost to a team (Texans) that lost to the Jags. It's fun to do that. It's fun watching other people non-jokingly use individual games to argue that one team is better than another. That logic ends up working really well.). Ok, they're not actually that bad. They should have even won that last game. They're just not good either.
21. Baltimore Ravens
Solid win. They have a pretty good D. If they do what they did last year, turing the number 15 offense into the number 1 playoff offense, then this year, they'll be turning the number 29 offense into the number 15 (?) playoff offense... I think it's better to assume they just won't make the playoffs. Maybe a team that can actually score will make the playoffs. Like the Chargers. Because unfortunately, it doesn't look like the 3rd best AFC team will (the Browns, at 12th in the league).
22. Washington Redskins
They did a surprisingly good job against the league's #6 (in yards) running game. That's about all I can say that's good about this team.
23. Buffalo Bills
I couldn't tell the difference between their bye and their actual games.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Their offense has gotten substantially better recently (since Glennon took over). It's not the Broncos', or even the Titans' at this point, but it's better. And with that defense, especially LD (see, because it sounds like LT... Get it?), that's good enough to win some football games.
25. Chicago Bears
The run defense. Other than that, they're actually a pretty good team. Now you see how bad the run D is.
26. Miami Dolphins
Way to almost beat the Panthers. Eerily similar to their score last week. In fact, starting in week 5, the winner of Dolphins games hasn't scored over 27, and the loser hasn't scored under 16. And only one of the margins has been over 4 points. The Dolphins basically just play the same game every week.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Ick. You're supposed to keep it under cover how bad you are. That's the second awful blowout you've had. As I've said before, good teams lose games, that's just a function of the variance in football. But the BAD losses? That means something. That something being that your team is not good.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Now that they've lost, will they win again? But actually. They were near the cellar of the league before the best part of the team got injured.
29. St. Louis Rams
They're out of the 31 spot! They've done well recently to get some huge wins. And they're really just as low as they are because of the two awful losses they suffered in weeks 3 and 4. Discounting those, they're 13th. Now, a lot of teams would make a big jump if you ignored their two worst games, but not close to this big. There's just been a lot more variance in how well this team has played than there has been for anyone else.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Yeah, they're bad.
31. Dallas Cowboys
I'm surprised they're this low, but they've been gashed pretty much all season. And their offense has too many bad stretches to keep up over the long haul. They're not going to keep this run going for long.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Still the Jags. Still the worst.
At this point, it's not close. The Seahawks are first by a bigger margin than anybody this season other than the Broncos at the very beginning. But here, we've seen 11 games. There's a lot less variance. This is the best team in football.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
That offense with Nick Foles at the helm is unstoppable. And speaking of not getting stops, the Eagles' defense, but this team feels like the Redskins last year. They're just going to keep winning. Until they play the Seahawks in the playoffs.
3. Denver Broncos
That was Peyton's worst game in years. I don't care about the comeback, that was just a matter of when each team had bad enough luck to cough up the ball repeatedly. But Manning wasn't hitting anyone. It was ugly. For a quarterback who didn't have less than 7 yards per attempt in any game all season (for reference, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck are averaging 6.7 on the year (ok, those guys are 27th and 28th in the league, respectively, but still)), throwing for 4.2 ypa is atrocious. One-Ring-Peyton has never done that bad. I don't know if it was a product of the cold, or if it was just a fluke of all his bad throws happening in the same game, but this broncos offense looks a lot more mortal than it used to. Despite their running game dominance. Now their defensive woes are relevant again.
4. New Orleans Saints
Their defense has been playing a lot better recently, and while they're still worse than average, they can stop some people. And that's all they need with Drew Brees throwing the ball. I mean, not on Monday, they'll probably get blown out (possibly in the snow), but against any team that's not way better than everybody else in the league, I like their chances.
5. Green Bay Packers
Their defense sucks, but they might not lose once Aaron Rodgers comes back. I still think they'll make the playoffs, and nobody's going to want to play them. Except the Seahawks, but as I mentioned for the Saints, they don't count. On the other hand, they made BY FAR THE WORST 4TH DOWN DECISION I'VE EVER SEEN to completely blow their game against Minnesota. They had 4th and goal from the 2, on the first drive in OT, and they kicked a field goal. Let's look at that. First, consider how bad kicking is in general on that first OT drive with the new rule in place. It's so bad, in fact, that it's been shown to be better to punt from your opponent's 30 on 4th and 20 than to kick (or go for it, because, you know, 4th and 20). It's also so bad to kick from the 2 even not in overtime, the idea behind that being the amazing field position you get even if you don't convert. In the Packers' case, they combined both awful mistakes. It was actually about as good for them to FAIL TO CONVERT ON 4TH than to kick the field goal. I hope that decision costs them a playoff spot.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
After that rant, we can take a more chill team. They're pretty good, not spectacular, and while the injury hurts, it seems like they can hold it together without Geno Atkins. But they don't threaten anyone the way the top 5 do. Or even maybe the next couple teams. It's NFC west time.
7. San Francisco 49ers
They've been on this on-the-verge level all year. They aren't the team they were last year, but they have a pretty good offense and defense, just like the Bengals, and they can do some of the spectacular things the Bengals can't. Then again, they also have the potential to poop the bed more than the Bengals do. Sometimes they can't pass. Like, at all. Like, worse than Peyton's game on Sunday. And multiple times, too.
8. Arizona Cardinals
What can I say, they're good! That is a top 3 defense in the league, maybe top 1. And they just put up a fortyburger on the Colts. Too bad they play in the wrong division.
9. Detroit Lions
There's way too much unpredictability with this team. They're based on just throwing to a wide receiver who is WAY better than anyone else he goes up against. Sometimes, that leads to amazing things. Other times, Stafford just throws 4 picks. Their defense doesn't help things.
10. New York Giants
Remember when they couldn't run the ball at all? They just ran all over the Cowboys. But it still wasn't enough. Kinda like the Broncos' game. That D is still really good though, unlike the Broncos. But, you know, wrong Manning.
11. Carolina Panthers
They've been here for a while now. They looked bad against the Dolphins, which they haven't done for a while now. But they've been an above-average-but-not-great team for a while now. Including last year.
12. Cleveland Browns
Still love their defense! Their offense, on the other hand, has been giving up almost as many points recently.
13. New York Jets
Kinda like the Browns. They do some awful things on O.
14. San Diego Chargers
The opposite. They just gave up almost 40 to a bottom-five offense in the league. Luckily, they can throw. Really well.
15. New England Patriots
I'd say good win, but it wasn't. But good job stopping Peyton. Not so good against the run though. Or running (without fumbling). The passing game is doing a lot better with Gronk and Amendola back.
16. Houston Texans
Just like the Broncos, they had a flukey bad game passing. This team has been unlucky all season (since the first couple games). If this team played the Jags 10 more times, they'd probably win 8 of them. If you just look at wins, of course you won't see a difference between the Jags and Texans. But they're a lot more that happens in football that can demonstrate the difference between a bad loser, like the Jags, and an unlucky loser, like the Texans.
17. Tennessee Titans
Good for you, you beat the Raiders. But it took a +2 turnover differential and a last minute touchdown. Face it, you were the worse team on Sunday. The better team this season, but worse on Sunday. But you won, and I'm glad the better team won.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
This time it took a +4 turnover margin. Count yourselves lucky. Because you sure as hell aren't good.
19. Minnesota Vikings
Great game on the ground on O. On D, not so much. But they were saved by the horrendous 4th down decision, so they could escape with a tie. Ponder has actually been playing reasonably well recently.
20. Oakland Raiders
I don't have anything to say about you. You lost to a team that lost to the fucking Jags. (Just like the Seahawks lost to a team (Colts) that lost to a team (Rams) that lost to a team (Titans) that lost to the Jags. Or lost to a team (Colts) that lost to a team (Chargers) that lost to a team (Texans) that lost to the Jags. It's fun to do that. It's fun watching other people non-jokingly use individual games to argue that one team is better than another. That logic ends up working really well.). Ok, they're not actually that bad. They should have even won that last game. They're just not good either.
21. Baltimore Ravens
Solid win. They have a pretty good D. If they do what they did last year, turing the number 15 offense into the number 1 playoff offense, then this year, they'll be turning the number 29 offense into the number 15 (?) playoff offense... I think it's better to assume they just won't make the playoffs. Maybe a team that can actually score will make the playoffs. Like the Chargers. Because unfortunately, it doesn't look like the 3rd best AFC team will (the Browns, at 12th in the league).
22. Washington Redskins
They did a surprisingly good job against the league's #6 (in yards) running game. That's about all I can say that's good about this team.
23. Buffalo Bills
I couldn't tell the difference between their bye and their actual games.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Their offense has gotten substantially better recently (since Glennon took over). It's not the Broncos', or even the Titans' at this point, but it's better. And with that defense, especially LD (see, because it sounds like LT... Get it?), that's good enough to win some football games.
25. Chicago Bears
The run defense. Other than that, they're actually a pretty good team. Now you see how bad the run D is.
26. Miami Dolphins
Way to almost beat the Panthers. Eerily similar to their score last week. In fact, starting in week 5, the winner of Dolphins games hasn't scored over 27, and the loser hasn't scored under 16. And only one of the margins has been over 4 points. The Dolphins basically just play the same game every week.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Ick. You're supposed to keep it under cover how bad you are. That's the second awful blowout you've had. As I've said before, good teams lose games, that's just a function of the variance in football. But the BAD losses? That means something. That something being that your team is not good.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Now that they've lost, will they win again? But actually. They were near the cellar of the league before the best part of the team got injured.
29. St. Louis Rams
They're out of the 31 spot! They've done well recently to get some huge wins. And they're really just as low as they are because of the two awful losses they suffered in weeks 3 and 4. Discounting those, they're 13th. Now, a lot of teams would make a big jump if you ignored their two worst games, but not close to this big. There's just been a lot more variance in how well this team has played than there has been for anyone else.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Yeah, they're bad.
31. Dallas Cowboys
I'm surprised they're this low, but they've been gashed pretty much all season. And their offense has too many bad stretches to keep up over the long haul. They're not going to keep this run going for long.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Still the Jags. Still the worst.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 11
The new power rankings (not including Thursday Night Football):
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Detroit Lions
10. New York Jets
11. New York Giants
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Houston Texans
I've now seen them ranked as the worst team in the league. They're not (especially because the Jaguars exist). They're still better than average. They still have the best football player in the world.
15. Chicago Bears
16. New England Patriots
17. San Diego Chargers
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Washington Redskins
20. Oakland Raiders
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
22. Minnesota Vikings
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Baltimore Ravens
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Miami Dolphins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
It's interesting that they lost 27-17 when they have the 27th best offense and the 17th best defense in the league. What an awful team.
28. Indianapolis Colts
They're bad, too.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Dallas Cowboys
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Detroit Lions
10. New York Jets
11. New York Giants
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Houston Texans
I've now seen them ranked as the worst team in the league. They're not (especially because the Jaguars exist). They're still better than average. They still have the best football player in the world.
15. Chicago Bears
16. New England Patriots
17. San Diego Chargers
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Washington Redskins
20. Oakland Raiders
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
22. Minnesota Vikings
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Baltimore Ravens
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Miami Dolphins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
It's interesting that they lost 27-17 when they have the 27th best offense and the 17th best defense in the league. What an awful team.
28. Indianapolis Colts
They're bad, too.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Dallas Cowboys
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Thursday, November 14, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 10
Here they are, right before Thursday Night Football:
1. Denver Broncos
Back in first thanks in no small part to Aaron Rodgers's injury, but any small slip up against a weak Chiefs team next week could cost them their spot.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Right on the Broncos' heels. And speaking of heels, Achilles didn't make two free throws after his heel got fucked up. But I digress. This team is getting healthy at just the right time, and they were about a Peyton Manning incompletion away from number 1 already.
3. Green Bay Packers
Still a team to watch out for when Rodgers gets back. But it's their running game that has really been huge for them this season. After going 44 games without a 100 yard rusher, they're now averaging a whopping 4.8 yards per carry, 4th in the league and 1st among teams without a super-athletic QB bumping up the average (not counting Seneca Wallace).
4. Philadelphia Eagles
They're back and as good as ever before. Nick Foles has been the best passer in the NFL this season, and Vick was pretty good, too. The whole offense is amazing, just like the Packers', with the same kind of injury-induced hiccup slowing them down for a couple of games.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
They've been really good. They had a tough game in Baltimore, though, and I'm not as sold on their D without Geno Atkins.
6. San Francisco 49ers
They just can't throw the ball. Kaep just isn't being carried by his teammates (especially on the line) the way he was last year. But they do everything else really well, and are still one of the best teams in the league.
7. New Orleans Saints
That offense is amazing. 625 yards!! Everybody was too busy looking at what Brees did to notice that they also piled up 242 rushing yards as well. But they can't stop the run. At all. They're the only team worse at it than the Chiefs. And the Chiefs are awful. They're going to need to fix that up a little by the time they head to Seattle.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Yes the Cardinals. By my rankings, they should get the second of the NFC wild Cards. That's 3 NFC West teams in the top 8. And the other one just beat a team by 30 that everybody else thought was top 3 in the league. The Cardinals defense is for real.
9. New York Giants
Speaking of defenses that are for real, the Giants have what could be the best in the entire NFL. After starting 0-6, they've won 3 straight and look like they could even make an improbable run at the playoffs.
10. New York Jets
Another good defense combined with an O that often self-destructs.
11. Detroit Lions
A good defense combined with a D that often self-destructs. There seem to be a lot of teams like that this year (Broncos, Packers, Eagles, Saints, Bears, Redskins, Chargers, Falcons). No team outside of the NFC west is good at both (I define good as top 10).
12. Carolina Panthers
They keep making their run, and it looks really good. It does. They are pretty good. But let's chill our horses for a little bit. They aren't actually a threat to the Seahawks in the NFC, although they're definitely way better than some other really bad teams in playoff position (see Colts, Chiefs). I really want to see them match up with the Saints though. The Saints will have trouble stopping the running game.
13. Cleveland Browns
See #10. But worse. They're still a better than average team though. And they're the fucking Browns, so that means something.
14. Houston Texans
They've easily been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this season. It's going to be nearly impossible for them to catch the much-worse Colts in the division. But the best player in the world isn't going to go down easily.
15. New England Patriots
I don't know what to make of this team. On one hand, they're the Patriots. On the other, for the whole season other than their game against the Steelers, they've been one of the worst offenses in the league, and their defense has injury issues. On the third hand (don't question it), the offense is tossing aside their injury issues. They might actually be elite once healthy.
16. Chicago Bears
See #11. But worse.
17. Washington Redskins
They might be coming alive with Robert getting healthier. But as #11 mentions, the D self-destructs.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Ponder just went 17/21. Ponder. 17/21. Just throwing that out there. But they're still going to end up like Petey's front seat on Sunday.
19. Tennessee Titans
So what they lost to the Jags. That's just the variance of the NFL. They had some bad breaks. And it's not like they're a great team themselves.
20. San Diego Chargers
Don't let their holding Denver to 28 fool you. They were never in that game. The D was never going to be able to hold up. But the offense is good. I'd be shocked to see this team with the worst D in the league lose to the Chiefs in a couple weeks.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Not a great win, but a solid one. The defense played well. Maybe that's not so hard against the Bills though, at least in the passing game.
22. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals may have gotten lucky on the hail mary, but the Ravens were on the other side of the breaks for the rest of the game. They didn't really move the ball, although they somehow passed for 11 first downs on just 104 yards. And I can't give them credit for all the penalties that the Bengals committed.
23. Oakland Raiders
They did a good job keeping it close against the Giants, but there's a fine line between good mediocrity and bad mediocrity in the NFL. It's too easy to cross, and the Raiders did. Don't count them out though, at least from getting back to good mediocrity. As I mentioned recently, there's a very little difference between the teams in the middle of the pack (this week, the teams not in the top 7 or bottom 6).
24. Buffalo Bills
Why do I really just not want to talk about the Bills? I don't know, but I don't. So I won't.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They won! Yay! And they actually have a pretty good defense. There's no real reason why they should be the team with just 1 win and the Chiefs should have 9. Just luck. Not that the Bucs are good. Just that the Chiefs are bad. Really bad.
26. Miami Dolphins
And the team that gave the Bucs that first win. Their D is kinda okay too.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Yeah, the Colts. That "good" team that beat the top 2 teams (and #6). But it's luck. And not with a capital L. Same reason they lost to a worse Rams team by 30. There's a lot of variance in the NFL. But at least they're better than our #28 team (whom they play in week 16).
28. Kansas City Chiefs
I've already mentioned how bad they are. They don't stand a chance against the Broncos. Neither does the spread (Broncos by 7.5).
29. Atlanta Falcons
They just got decimated. That defense is atrocious. This team is actually worse than the Chiefs. The fucking Chiefs!
30. Dallas Cowboys
See #29
31. St. Louis Rams
Good for them beating the Colts. Really good for them beating the Colts by a lot. But the Colts suck. And the Rams got pretty lucky.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Winning is nice, but this team is still awful. They shouldn't expect much more of it.
1. Denver Broncos
Back in first thanks in no small part to Aaron Rodgers's injury, but any small slip up against a weak Chiefs team next week could cost them their spot.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Right on the Broncos' heels. And speaking of heels, Achilles didn't make two free throws after his heel got fucked up. But I digress. This team is getting healthy at just the right time, and they were about a Peyton Manning incompletion away from number 1 already.
3. Green Bay Packers
Still a team to watch out for when Rodgers gets back. But it's their running game that has really been huge for them this season. After going 44 games without a 100 yard rusher, they're now averaging a whopping 4.8 yards per carry, 4th in the league and 1st among teams without a super-athletic QB bumping up the average (not counting Seneca Wallace).
4. Philadelphia Eagles
They're back and as good as ever before. Nick Foles has been the best passer in the NFL this season, and Vick was pretty good, too. The whole offense is amazing, just like the Packers', with the same kind of injury-induced hiccup slowing them down for a couple of games.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
They've been really good. They had a tough game in Baltimore, though, and I'm not as sold on their D without Geno Atkins.
6. San Francisco 49ers
They just can't throw the ball. Kaep just isn't being carried by his teammates (especially on the line) the way he was last year. But they do everything else really well, and are still one of the best teams in the league.
7. New Orleans Saints
That offense is amazing. 625 yards!! Everybody was too busy looking at what Brees did to notice that they also piled up 242 rushing yards as well. But they can't stop the run. At all. They're the only team worse at it than the Chiefs. And the Chiefs are awful. They're going to need to fix that up a little by the time they head to Seattle.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Yes the Cardinals. By my rankings, they should get the second of the NFC wild Cards. That's 3 NFC West teams in the top 8. And the other one just beat a team by 30 that everybody else thought was top 3 in the league. The Cardinals defense is for real.
9. New York Giants
Speaking of defenses that are for real, the Giants have what could be the best in the entire NFL. After starting 0-6, they've won 3 straight and look like they could even make an improbable run at the playoffs.
10. New York Jets
Another good defense combined with an O that often self-destructs.
11. Detroit Lions
A good defense combined with a D that often self-destructs. There seem to be a lot of teams like that this year (Broncos, Packers, Eagles, Saints, Bears, Redskins, Chargers, Falcons). No team outside of the NFC west is good at both (I define good as top 10).
12. Carolina Panthers
They keep making their run, and it looks really good. It does. They are pretty good. But let's chill our horses for a little bit. They aren't actually a threat to the Seahawks in the NFC, although they're definitely way better than some other really bad teams in playoff position (see Colts, Chiefs). I really want to see them match up with the Saints though. The Saints will have trouble stopping the running game.
13. Cleveland Browns
See #10. But worse. They're still a better than average team though. And they're the fucking Browns, so that means something.
14. Houston Texans
They've easily been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this season. It's going to be nearly impossible for them to catch the much-worse Colts in the division. But the best player in the world isn't going to go down easily.
15. New England Patriots
I don't know what to make of this team. On one hand, they're the Patriots. On the other, for the whole season other than their game against the Steelers, they've been one of the worst offenses in the league, and their defense has injury issues. On the third hand (don't question it), the offense is tossing aside their injury issues. They might actually be elite once healthy.
16. Chicago Bears
See #11. But worse.
17. Washington Redskins
They might be coming alive with Robert getting healthier. But as #11 mentions, the D self-destructs.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Ponder just went 17/21. Ponder. 17/21. Just throwing that out there. But they're still going to end up like Petey's front seat on Sunday.
19. Tennessee Titans
So what they lost to the Jags. That's just the variance of the NFL. They had some bad breaks. And it's not like they're a great team themselves.
20. San Diego Chargers
Don't let their holding Denver to 28 fool you. They were never in that game. The D was never going to be able to hold up. But the offense is good. I'd be shocked to see this team with the worst D in the league lose to the Chiefs in a couple weeks.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Not a great win, but a solid one. The defense played well. Maybe that's not so hard against the Bills though, at least in the passing game.
22. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals may have gotten lucky on the hail mary, but the Ravens were on the other side of the breaks for the rest of the game. They didn't really move the ball, although they somehow passed for 11 first downs on just 104 yards. And I can't give them credit for all the penalties that the Bengals committed.
23. Oakland Raiders
They did a good job keeping it close against the Giants, but there's a fine line between good mediocrity and bad mediocrity in the NFL. It's too easy to cross, and the Raiders did. Don't count them out though, at least from getting back to good mediocrity. As I mentioned recently, there's a very little difference between the teams in the middle of the pack (this week, the teams not in the top 7 or bottom 6).
24. Buffalo Bills
Why do I really just not want to talk about the Bills? I don't know, but I don't. So I won't.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They won! Yay! And they actually have a pretty good defense. There's no real reason why they should be the team with just 1 win and the Chiefs should have 9. Just luck. Not that the Bucs are good. Just that the Chiefs are bad. Really bad.
26. Miami Dolphins
And the team that gave the Bucs that first win. Their D is kinda okay too.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Yeah, the Colts. That "good" team that beat the top 2 teams (and #6). But it's luck. And not with a capital L. Same reason they lost to a worse Rams team by 30. There's a lot of variance in the NFL. But at least they're better than our #28 team (whom they play in week 16).
28. Kansas City Chiefs
I've already mentioned how bad they are. They don't stand a chance against the Broncos. Neither does the spread (Broncos by 7.5).
29. Atlanta Falcons
They just got decimated. That defense is atrocious. This team is actually worse than the Chiefs. The fucking Chiefs!
30. Dallas Cowboys
See #29
31. St. Louis Rams
Good for them beating the Colts. Really good for them beating the Colts by a lot. But the Colts suck. And the Rams got pretty lucky.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Winning is nice, but this team is still awful. They shouldn't expect much more of it.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 9
They're late, but they're here. Rankings do not include Thursday Night Football results.
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Denver Broncos
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Nick Foles
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Houston Texans
9. New York Giants
10. New York Jets
11. Cleveland Browns
12. Detroit Lions
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Chicago Bears
15. Carolina Panthers
16. San Diego Chargers
17. Washington Redskins
18. New England Patriots
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Baltimore Ravens
21. Indianapolis Colts
22. Oakland Raiders
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Miami Dolphins
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Dallas Cowboys
28. Kansas City Chiefs
It's not that their offense (by my algorithm, ranked 28th in the league) is awful and their great D has been lucky to make up for it every game: a defensive team that has won a bunch of low scoring coin-flip games. Their defense is the 20th best in the league. They've just made a ridiculous number of lucky plays.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Denver Broncos
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Nick Foles
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Houston Texans
9. New York Giants
10. New York Jets
11. Cleveland Browns
12. Detroit Lions
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Chicago Bears
15. Carolina Panthers
16. San Diego Chargers
17. Washington Redskins
18. New England Patriots
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Baltimore Ravens
21. Indianapolis Colts
22. Oakland Raiders
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Miami Dolphins
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Dallas Cowboys
28. Kansas City Chiefs
It's not that their offense (by my algorithm, ranked 28th in the league) is awful and their great D has been lucky to make up for it every game: a defensive team that has won a bunch of low scoring coin-flip games. Their defense is the 20th best in the league. They've just made a ridiculous number of lucky plays.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 8
Some big changes at the top. Here we go:
1. Green Bay Packers
In a week of impressive wins for the top (4) teams, the Packers didn't need to rely on 5 opponent turnovers like the Broncos did. There offense is just having their way with every single team they play, and their defense has stepped up as well.
2. Denver Broncos
They broke away at the end with a 31-0 4th quarter, but this team just doesn't feel like the juggernaut it was at the beginning of the season. Still incredibly good though.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals putting up that kind of win against one of the better defenses in the NFL is one of the best games that any team has played this season. Offensively and defensively, this team now feels like it's right in the superbowl mix.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Another great win, but it's all relative. Sure they jump the Seahawks, but dominating the Jags is just not on the level of what the Bengals did (although, again, pretty much nothing is). It's still impressive though. They've significantly narrowed the once-wide gap between them and the top of the league.
5. Seattle Seahawks
They slip, and they should. The performance on both lines was atrocious. This was a just a really bad game for the Seahawks, but luckily, they're getting healthy soon enough to combat the issues that killed them against the awful Rams. And there's a lot of variance in the NFL. One terrible game isn't cause to give up on a team that has otherwise proven itself to be one of the elite teams in the league, especially given the dearth of good teams to take their place in the top 5. According to my algorithm, only the Bengals, 49ers, and Seahawks boast both top 10 offenses and defenses.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
What was once extraordinary has turned to shit under a quarterback catastrophe. However, my algorithm weights earlier games the same as recent ones, and those were some amazing offensive performances. They need Vick to get healthy, and they need it fast. Luckily for them, they're still only a game out of first in the division.
7. New York Giants
They're making their move, and they're looking good. In the same fortunate divisional circumstances as the Eagles, this formerly 0-6 team could find itself right in the playoff mix pretty soon. The defense is actually really, really, really good.
8. San Diego Chargers
Bye. Or should I say, SEE-YA! ...to opposing defenses. Because Rivers is pretty unstoppable.
9. Houston Texans
They've had a lot of bad luck this season, but they really aren't such a bad team. The passing game needs work, but the Texans can run the ball with the best of them, and they still have the best player in the world, although it's closer now than it's been in a while (see #13).
10. New Orleans Saints
This team is pretty much the same as the Chargers. They can put up a lot of points by passing the ball a lot of times, and usually that can overcome a suspect defense.
11. Carolina Panthers
This is a team that has looked really good for a while now. They aren't spectacular enough at anything to warrant a top 10 ranking, but everything has been clicking against the weaker opponents they've played recently.
12. Cleveland Browns
For a completely defense-based team, the offense played pretty well against the Chiefs on Sunday to go along with the 6 sacks by the D. Just like most teams that have played the incredibly lucky Chiefs, the Browns easily played well enough to win.
13. Detroit Lions
Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson. WHAT??!!!?!??! He outgained the entire Cowboys' offense! By a lot! That was the best game any player has had all season, and he didn't have to throw for more touchdowns than any quarterback since the merger (see Denver Broncos, week 1). This one player makes an otherwise pretty awful team competitive.
14. Oakland Raiders
They're 3-4. They've been an average team all year. And still nobody has noticed that they're not the bottom feeders they were expected to be. They're about to be ranked TEN FUCKING SPOTS ABOVE AN EIGHT AND OH TEAM! The Raiders!
15. Chicago Bears
Their offense has been really good. Has been. Their defense has not. And without their starting quarterback, I'm not so sure they'll be able to keep up anymore. But they're 4-3, they had a well-timed bye week, and Jay Cutler should be coming back in a few weeks. Whether or not they can win a game in his absence? Still up in the air.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Beating up on a bad Falcons team! Good for them. The defense is really good.
17. New York Jets
That was really bad. REALLY BAD. They beat the Patriots one week, and then they lose by 40 the next. The high-variance-in-football-should-make-us-forgive-bad-games principle only applies to reasonably close games. This was not one of those. But hey, a team could do a lot worse than 17th (See #24).
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's the Steelers. What do we expect? hmmm... Oh right, exactly what we get. A mediocre-at-best offense and a fringe top-10 defense. That's why they're at 18, and the Raiders are at 14. They don't do anything remotely special.
19. Indianapolis Colts
Now that Luck has evened out for a lot of teams, I think we need to do a new ranking of the Luckiest teams in football. And the Colts fall in at #2. They don't pass the ball that well, they don't play defense that well, and the guy they traded a first round pick for doesn't run the ball well (Everybody else on the team, on the other hand, seems to run it pretty well). The NFL has enough parity that mediocre teams can win a lot without being that Lucky though. That's why they aren't the team that's had the most Luck. Or even close, for that matter. Their Luck doesn't Angerer me the way the Chief's Luck does. In other news, Colts players have fun names.
20. Washington Redskins
Just when it looked like they had finally turned the corner, the 4th quarter happened. And it happened hard. It's like they were just about to solve the Rubix Cube, and then BAM! We all know what happened next. Shit. Everywhere.
21. Tennessee Titans
Remember the Bills a few weeks ago? When they were just a mediocre offense and defense? Before things got a lot worse? That's the Titans now. Hopefully Locker can get them out of the pit. They have an easy stretch coming up in their schedule.
22. Minnesota Vikings
For all that their defense got killed, they played pretty well on the other side of the ball. And they were playing the best team in the league.
23. Baltimore Ravens
There's just nothing interesting to say about them during a bye.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
This is the luckiest team in the NFL. It's not like they're way worse than everybody else: They're not. The difference between the 24th best team and the 6th best team isn't that big (I chose 6th because there is a huge gap between 5th and 6th, almost as big as that between the Chiefs and Eagles. The difference between the Chiefs and the Seahawks IS really big). But they are worse than most other teams. And they have beaten every team they've played. That takes some fucking crazy luck. And it pisses me off.
25. Dallas Cowboys
The offense wasn't good, but it wasn't bad. Romo played pretty poorly, especially against a weak Lions defense. That happens though. But there are some things that don't happen. Like receivers getting 329 yards in an NFL game. I get that he's 6-5, 240 with a 6-10 wingspan, 43 inch vertical, and 4.35 40. I get that those physical tools are way better than anyone else he's going up against (or any other receiver [ever], for that matter). But 329 yards is too much. Way too much. And this isn't the first time the Cowboys defense has been torched this season.
26. New England Patriots
They're just not good. 100 yards passing, a much worse defense due to injuries, only winning against other awful teams. If Gronk can't save them, no one can. They're done. Although it's still looking like they'll win the division, somehow.
27. Buffalo Bills
More like Biffalo Bullshit, am I right? The AFC East is the worst division in football. The Bills are 1 spot away from being the second best team in it.
28. Miami Dolphins
Remember when they were 3-0 and they weren't that good? Now they're 3-4 and not that good.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They've supplanted the Browns for the title of worst offense in the NFL (surprisingly, the Jags have avoided it for a few weeks now). But the defense is average, so they could potentially hang in games, which they've done. Winning them is another question.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Firstly, this is the worst defense in the NFL. By a lot. Secondly, are they going to set a record for pass/run ratio this season? They've decided (smartly, I might add) that if they can't gain 2 yards per carry (which often happens), they might as well drop back to pass 65 times a game (which just happened). But with that defense, their receiving corps is just too injured to keep up.
31. St. Louis Rams
Out of the cellar! They put on a great performance against the Seahawks last night, but as I mentioned before, one game doesn't mean that much. This has been a really bad team the rest of the season.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Back where they (might) belong. The offensive resurgence led by Justin Blackmon didn't last long, and now it looks like they have to worry about 0-16 again. The defense is really bad, too, in case you were wondering.
1. Green Bay Packers
In a week of impressive wins for the top (4) teams, the Packers didn't need to rely on 5 opponent turnovers like the Broncos did. There offense is just having their way with every single team they play, and their defense has stepped up as well.
2. Denver Broncos
They broke away at the end with a 31-0 4th quarter, but this team just doesn't feel like the juggernaut it was at the beginning of the season. Still incredibly good though.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals putting up that kind of win against one of the better defenses in the NFL is one of the best games that any team has played this season. Offensively and defensively, this team now feels like it's right in the superbowl mix.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Another great win, but it's all relative. Sure they jump the Seahawks, but dominating the Jags is just not on the level of what the Bengals did (although, again, pretty much nothing is). It's still impressive though. They've significantly narrowed the once-wide gap between them and the top of the league.
5. Seattle Seahawks
They slip, and they should. The performance on both lines was atrocious. This was a just a really bad game for the Seahawks, but luckily, they're getting healthy soon enough to combat the issues that killed them against the awful Rams. And there's a lot of variance in the NFL. One terrible game isn't cause to give up on a team that has otherwise proven itself to be one of the elite teams in the league, especially given the dearth of good teams to take their place in the top 5. According to my algorithm, only the Bengals, 49ers, and Seahawks boast both top 10 offenses and defenses.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
What was once extraordinary has turned to shit under a quarterback catastrophe. However, my algorithm weights earlier games the same as recent ones, and those were some amazing offensive performances. They need Vick to get healthy, and they need it fast. Luckily for them, they're still only a game out of first in the division.
7. New York Giants
They're making their move, and they're looking good. In the same fortunate divisional circumstances as the Eagles, this formerly 0-6 team could find itself right in the playoff mix pretty soon. The defense is actually really, really, really good.
8. San Diego Chargers
Bye. Or should I say, SEE-YA! ...to opposing defenses. Because Rivers is pretty unstoppable.
9. Houston Texans
They've had a lot of bad luck this season, but they really aren't such a bad team. The passing game needs work, but the Texans can run the ball with the best of them, and they still have the best player in the world, although it's closer now than it's been in a while (see #13).
10. New Orleans Saints
This team is pretty much the same as the Chargers. They can put up a lot of points by passing the ball a lot of times, and usually that can overcome a suspect defense.
11. Carolina Panthers
This is a team that has looked really good for a while now. They aren't spectacular enough at anything to warrant a top 10 ranking, but everything has been clicking against the weaker opponents they've played recently.
12. Cleveland Browns
For a completely defense-based team, the offense played pretty well against the Chiefs on Sunday to go along with the 6 sacks by the D. Just like most teams that have played the incredibly lucky Chiefs, the Browns easily played well enough to win.
13. Detroit Lions
Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson. WHAT??!!!?!??! He outgained the entire Cowboys' offense! By a lot! That was the best game any player has had all season, and he didn't have to throw for more touchdowns than any quarterback since the merger (see Denver Broncos, week 1). This one player makes an otherwise pretty awful team competitive.
14. Oakland Raiders
They're 3-4. They've been an average team all year. And still nobody has noticed that they're not the bottom feeders they were expected to be. They're about to be ranked TEN FUCKING SPOTS ABOVE AN EIGHT AND OH TEAM! The Raiders!
15. Chicago Bears
Their offense has been really good. Has been. Their defense has not. And without their starting quarterback, I'm not so sure they'll be able to keep up anymore. But they're 4-3, they had a well-timed bye week, and Jay Cutler should be coming back in a few weeks. Whether or not they can win a game in his absence? Still up in the air.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Beating up on a bad Falcons team! Good for them. The defense is really good.
17. New York Jets
That was really bad. REALLY BAD. They beat the Patriots one week, and then they lose by 40 the next. The high-variance-in-football-should-make-us-forgive-bad-games principle only applies to reasonably close games. This was not one of those. But hey, a team could do a lot worse than 17th (See #24).
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
It's the Steelers. What do we expect? hmmm... Oh right, exactly what we get. A mediocre-at-best offense and a fringe top-10 defense. That's why they're at 18, and the Raiders are at 14. They don't do anything remotely special.
19. Indianapolis Colts
Now that Luck has evened out for a lot of teams, I think we need to do a new ranking of the Luckiest teams in football. And the Colts fall in at #2. They don't pass the ball that well, they don't play defense that well, and the guy they traded a first round pick for doesn't run the ball well (Everybody else on the team, on the other hand, seems to run it pretty well). The NFL has enough parity that mediocre teams can win a lot without being that Lucky though. That's why they aren't the team that's had the most Luck. Or even close, for that matter. Their Luck doesn't Angerer me the way the Chief's Luck does. In other news, Colts players have fun names.
20. Washington Redskins
Just when it looked like they had finally turned the corner, the 4th quarter happened. And it happened hard. It's like they were just about to solve the Rubix Cube, and then BAM! We all know what happened next. Shit. Everywhere.
21. Tennessee Titans
Remember the Bills a few weeks ago? When they were just a mediocre offense and defense? Before things got a lot worse? That's the Titans now. Hopefully Locker can get them out of the pit. They have an easy stretch coming up in their schedule.
22. Minnesota Vikings
For all that their defense got killed, they played pretty well on the other side of the ball. And they were playing the best team in the league.
23. Baltimore Ravens
There's just nothing interesting to say about them during a bye.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
This is the luckiest team in the NFL. It's not like they're way worse than everybody else: They're not. The difference between the 24th best team and the 6th best team isn't that big (I chose 6th because there is a huge gap between 5th and 6th, almost as big as that between the Chiefs and Eagles. The difference between the Chiefs and the Seahawks IS really big). But they are worse than most other teams. And they have beaten every team they've played. That takes some fucking crazy luck. And it pisses me off.
25. Dallas Cowboys
The offense wasn't good, but it wasn't bad. Romo played pretty poorly, especially against a weak Lions defense. That happens though. But there are some things that don't happen. Like receivers getting 329 yards in an NFL game. I get that he's 6-5, 240 with a 6-10 wingspan, 43 inch vertical, and 4.35 40. I get that those physical tools are way better than anyone else he's going up against (or any other receiver [ever], for that matter). But 329 yards is too much. Way too much. And this isn't the first time the Cowboys defense has been torched this season.
26. New England Patriots
They're just not good. 100 yards passing, a much worse defense due to injuries, only winning against other awful teams. If Gronk can't save them, no one can. They're done. Although it's still looking like they'll win the division, somehow.
27. Buffalo Bills
More like Biffalo Bullshit, am I right? The AFC East is the worst division in football. The Bills are 1 spot away from being the second best team in it.
28. Miami Dolphins
Remember when they were 3-0 and they weren't that good? Now they're 3-4 and not that good.
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They've supplanted the Browns for the title of worst offense in the NFL (surprisingly, the Jags have avoided it for a few weeks now). But the defense is average, so they could potentially hang in games, which they've done. Winning them is another question.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Firstly, this is the worst defense in the NFL. By a lot. Secondly, are they going to set a record for pass/run ratio this season? They've decided (smartly, I might add) that if they can't gain 2 yards per carry (which often happens), they might as well drop back to pass 65 times a game (which just happened). But with that defense, their receiving corps is just too injured to keep up.
31. St. Louis Rams
Out of the cellar! They put on a great performance against the Seahawks last night, but as I mentioned before, one game doesn't mean that much. This has been a really bad team the rest of the season.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Back where they (might) belong. The offensive resurgence led by Justin Blackmon didn't last long, and now it looks like they have to worry about 0-16 again. The defense is really bad, too, in case you were wondering.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 7
Forgot about it for a couple days, but here's the list (as of the end of week 7):
1. Denver Broncos
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. New York Jets
8. San Diego Chargers
9. Houston Texans
10. New York Giants
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Dallas Cowboys
14. Cleveland Browns
15. Oakland Raiders
16. Indianapolis Colts
17. Tennessee Titans
18. Kansas City Chiefs
19. Chicago Bears
20. Washington Redskins
21. New Orleans Saints
22. Baltimore Ravens
23. Atlanta Falcons
24. New England Patriots
25. Arizona Cardinals
26. Minnesota Vikings
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Miami Dolphins
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Detroit Lions
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
32. St. Louis Rams
1. Denver Broncos
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. New York Jets
8. San Diego Chargers
9. Houston Texans
10. New York Giants
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Dallas Cowboys
14. Cleveland Browns
15. Oakland Raiders
16. Indianapolis Colts
17. Tennessee Titans
18. Kansas City Chiefs
19. Chicago Bears
20. Washington Redskins
21. New Orleans Saints
22. Baltimore Ravens
23. Atlanta Falcons
24. New England Patriots
25. Arizona Cardinals
26. Minnesota Vikings
27. Buffalo Bills
28. Miami Dolphins
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Detroit Lions
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
32. St. Louis Rams
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