2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 4

I weighted last season as just 1 game (as opposed to 2) for these rankings. I'll probably keep it there for at least a few weeks.

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Bye. Bye. SEE-YA

2. Seattle Seahawks

See Bengals, Cincinnati

3. Denver Broncos

See Seahawks, Seattle

4. San Diego Chargers

It's the Jags. You'll see their ranking. It's basically a bye. So... See Broncos, Denver.

5. Detroit Lions

Finally a team that isn't on a bye! Despite everybody elsa's rankings, they beat a leJetimate contender on Sunday. Probably should be the favorite to win their division. The Lions, that is. And the Jets. Both those teams are better than people think.

6. Arizona Cardinals

See Broncos, Denver. At least they will next week. This might have been the worst week in NFL HISTORY in terms of being able to see the best teams play. 6 teams were on a bye. 7 if you include playing the Jags. And 4.5 of those 6.5 byes were taken by top 6 teams, and the 3.5 of the top 4. That's RIDICULOUS. But no, I'm not gonna look at this historically. That's too much work. I'll just acknowledge how amazing this is. Acknowledge HARD. Ok, it's about 1/1000 that at least 5 of the top 6 teams in the league will be on bye. And there have been much fewer than 1000 weeks in the NFL where byes have occurred. So yeah, this is amazing.

7. San Francisco 49ers

They CRUSHED the Eagles. The Eagles were lucky to be within 20, let alone a play away from winning. This game was really impressive.

8. New York Jets

They may be losing, but close losses with some bad luck aren't a problem for me. The defense is still one of the best in the league.

9. Baltimore Ravens

They've jumped a lot recently. That's what Steve Smith has to do because he's so short. Even shorter than Taylor Swift, in fact. But somehow he can still do things. The number of years he's been alive is more than half the number of inches he is tall. But I digress. I'm coming up short trying to think of more to say about Steve Smith. I really want to say the Ravens are inconsistent. Because that's exactly how they've been playing. But it's never actually like that. The Ravens are just pretty good. And they had a way-better-than-normal game last week (against what might just be a bad Panthers team), which is something that happens. That's all.

10. Washington Redskins

If you have a problem with me not dropping this team after their blowout loss to the Giants, go fund yourself. My algorithm doesn't care about turnovers. That's what killed them on Thursday. It's luck. The Redskins are still actually a pretty good team.

11. Green Bay Packers

What? The 2-1 Bears, who had beaten the 49ers, got shat on by the 1-2 Packers? At Soldier Field? Oh, right, the Bears just always had a terrible defense, and they got lucky in weeks 2 and 3. The Packers aren't that good. Just good enough to take advantage of said terrible defense. Ok, Aaron Rodgers was REALLY good. But not good enough to push the Packers into the top 10 over the Redskins. See-ya.

12. Tennessee Titans

What? This time I'm serious. I'm legitimately confused as to why the Titans are still so high. Confused enough that I rechecked my data. But maybe there's something to it. Maybe. Probably not. But MAYBE my algorithm is smarter than any of us and it recognized that the Titans sucking was just bad luck. Again, probably not, but it's enough for me to not dismiss them the way I dismiss the actually bad teams in the league. Like the Patriots.

13. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have a terrible defense, don't get me wrong, but they've probably been wronged by my algorithm more than anyone. First, they have to deal with last year's numbers from the completely injured squad they had to field back then. Now, they have to suffer the slings and arrows of TEDDY MOTHERFUCKING BRIDGEWATER and my algorithm can't tell the difference between the Cassel-AD Vikings and the Bridgewater-Asiata Vikings. So they get punished for getting pounded by a bad offense when really they got pounded by one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Either way, they have a top 5 offense now that they're healthy*.

*Injured as balls, but Julio Jones is healthy. That's it. Pretty much their whole line isn't. But Jake Matthews will be in a few weeks.

14. New Orleans Saints

HOLY SHIT THEY GOT SHAT ON. Ok, it was bad, but it wasn't that bad. They had some bad luck recovering fumbles. As in, 0 for 4. Not enough to explain the blowout, but enough to make it not be quite as bad.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Now, this is the team that REALLY got shat on. I discussed this in my 49ers section. They're just not that good this year. Not that bad, either, but not a contender like when they had Desean Jackson.

16. Buffalo Bills

Ok, they had a close loss. But a loss is to be expected when the greatest player in the world has the greatest game in nfl history for your opponent.

17. Indianapolis Colts

Another dominant win, another great performance for Andrew Luck. Maybe this is his breakout year. He's finally putting up numbers that are better than league average. And they're way better. This is the kind of thing you would have thought he was already doing his first two years given all the credit he got from the media.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

They lost. I don't care about that. That was as fair a matchup as we've seen in the NFL. Either team could have won that game. But I do care about the team they played. That would be the Bucs. The team that lost 56-14 the week before. You can't play evenly with the Bucs. That's just embarrassing.

19. Miami Dolphins

That was a really dominant win. Props to them. It was also the Raiders. The team that lost to the Patriots. But I'll give credit where credit is due. It's a feat to beat ANY team the way the Dolphins beat Oakland.

20. Houston Texans

Watt else is there to talk about? He had NINE qb knockdowns. NINE. That's not a bad number for a TEAM TOTAL AFTER 4 GAMES. He almost singlehandedly shut down the Bills' passing attack. Oh, and he had an 80 yard pick 6, no big deal. This game was the G.O.A.T. This player might be the G.O.A.T.  The team, not so much, but it definitely has a chance to win that division as long as JJ is playing.

21. Minnesota Vikings

And here comes JJ's competition. TEDDY YOU-KNOW-WHAT-MY-MIDDLE-NAME-IS BRIDGEWATER. That was an amazing game. Over 300 yards on 30 attempts, a rushing touchdown, brilliant poise and athleticism in the pocket, and an ankle sprain. But he'll be fine. And by fine I mean one of the greatest players to ever set foot on the gridiron. But not JJ Watt. Because when he retires, NO ONE will be CLOSE to JJ Watt. JJ Watt the fuck are you doing comparing me to ANYBODY.

22. Dallas Cowboys

They sure played like they were feeling 22 against the Saints. I'm not gonna link you because you know how to use the internet. Just kidding. Anyway, Tony looks good. Really good. And the running game looks good. Really good. Top 5 offense. Bottom 5 defense. That's good enough a lot of times. I mean, not for the Cowboys, they haven't had, you know, success, in a while, but they've had a great quarterback FOR a while. In fact, Romo's career passer rating, albeit through under 10 years, so it's a small sample size, is 22 points higher than Elway's through his first 10 years. Just to put things in perspective, Tom Brady's rating last year wasn't 22 points higher than ANY qualified passer.

23. New York Giants

I don't care, lalalalalala. You lucked into hella turnovers. That's what the Bears did, and they're bad, so I'm just gonna put the Giants in the same category. Mediocre NFC teams who've gotten lucky enough to be .500 in a conference where they could easily be struggling to win a game. We can also put the Panthers in that category.

24. Cleveland Browns

See Cardinals, Arizona. Except for the ranking.

25. New England Patriots

See, it's not that bad, you're still ranked higher than the really awful teams. And Garawhatthefuckishisname looked pretty good on that one drive.

26. Kansas City Chiefs

Good win. That's two blowout wins in a row. I'm still not impressed. Remember, this is the same team that got destroyed by the Titans.

27. Carolina Panthers

Wow, that was a bad game. They're done. In my mind.

28. Chicago Bears

See Panthers, Carolina. Except they've been done for a little longer. Still in my mind.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They had a game that looked like football. And that's enough to make it to the 20s.

30. Oakland Raiders

THIS is why THAT'S enough to make it to the 20s.

31. St. Louis Rams

I think they're going to start Shaun Hill over Austin Davis. TELL ME WHY!!!! They finally found their QB of the future. So what if it's not Bradford.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles is gonna be pretty good. His team just sucks. He should be forcing shit. He has to. His team sucks.

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 3

Here we go: old school

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Still number one after demolishing the Titans. Although it wasn't quite as dominant as the score showed. They lost (holy) ground on our number 2 team.

2. Seattle Seahawks

But let's face it, we know who's going to win the Superbowl this year. And the next 15. The Broncos we're lucky to play them as close as they did. Speaking of which...

3. Detroit Lions

You may think I'm Lion, but the Broncos don't crack the top 3. This team looks really good on offense AND defense. They won by double digits despite having two more turnovers than the Packers. They're just good. And it's week 3 already, we can start trusting these rankings at least a little bit.

4. Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning is god. Sorry good. Nah, god is probably closer. Their defense is good. Like, slightly better than average. It held Russell "best passer rating in the league" Wilson under the 100 mark for the first time this season (99.9, to be more precise). Couldn't do the same to Jermaine Kearse though. Couldn't even hold him under a 100 QBR! This is probably the first (and last) time I'll reference QBR. And that song I just linked to. Well not the first. But the last. Shit. Maybe that's just like when I mentioned QBR in my sentence about not referencing QBR. It doesn't count. At least it'd better not. But anyway, my next link will make up for it.

5. San Diego Chargers

Their offense is AMAZING. And by their offense, I mean quarterback. (Because let's face it, here's how much I care about rushing. Enough to make it count equally to passing in my algorithm. Except that doesn't really happen, because the numbers are all so much lower than passing numbers. And I use exponents >1.) Rivers had one of the best games of any quarterback this season against the Bills. He put up Russell Wilson numbers. As in he went 18/25 for 2 TDs (In case you missed it, that was RW's line in the Superbowl.).

6. Arizona Cardinals

Before I go on, I want to point out that FOUR of the 6 best teams in the league have a bye this week. Which is ridiculous. I mean, it's not like they were trying to do it. But back to the Cardinals. They shat on the 49ers. They have one of the best defenses in the league. Again. It's not like they weren't amazing last year. You just didn't notice. Oh wait you did. Because you read my blog last year.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

That was a fun game.

8. New York Jets

I don't care about winning, remember? That's why the Jets are 21 spots ahead of the Bears. They played better. And got unlucky.

9. San Francisco 49ers. They're worse this year. Maybe bad enough to miss the playoffs in a division with the Seahawks and Cardinals. But it's not like they're actually a bad team.

10. Washington Redskins

See Eagles, Philadelphia

11. New Orleans Saints

They won! And looked pretty good doing it. It's going to be a dogfight between them and the number twelve team for the NFC South.

12. Atlanta Falcons

This is the team that gets punished for last year way too much. Or maybe just the right amount. I really don't know. But I do know that they're ranked 2nd just based on 2014 (to the team they lost to. And right ahead of the defending champions). I might decrease the weight of 2013 next week. To one and a half games or so. I'll let you know then. Anyway, that win was impressive as shit. Did the Seahawks beat the Bucs by 42 last year? It's good to win by fewer points, right? That's why Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL. Except for this week. But actually, he - never mind, I'll get to that later.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers

They ran the ball really well. REALLY WELL. Against one of the best front 7s in the league. 264 yards well.

14. Tennessee Titans

Cincinnati is good, and the loss wasn't nearly as bad as it looked. They'll be just fine cruising to a division title.

15. Green Bay Packers

They've played 3 top 10 teams. And 2 top 3 teams. And have been destroyed. Let's see if they'll be able to keep using the strength of schedule excuse.

16. Buffalo Bills

Didn't look quite so good this week. But maybe Rivers is just that good. Maybe the Bills are just a poor man's Seahawks. And by poor, I mean homeless as shit. Like the guy responsible for the Browns drafting Johnny Manziel.

17. Carolina Panthers

I don't know what to make of this team. Are they actually that bad? Was the Pittsburgh game just a fluke? Welll, the answer is always a little of both. They're probably just average.

18. New England Patriots

They won! At home! Against the Raiders! On a penalty at the end of the game! They're gonna win the Superbowl now! Surrrrrrrre, Tannerrrrrrr.

19. Miami Dolphins

I don't know what happened. Like, no fucking clue. Next.

20. Baltimore Ravens

See Patriots, New England. And adjust as necessary. The biggest difference is probably that it hasn't been a decade since the Ravens won the Superbowl.

21. Houston Texans

JJ Watt. Everybody else. JJ Watt. Everybody else. JJ Watt. Yeah, the Texans are 21, he's not that good. And by not that good, I mean he's by far* the best player of all time. He's just not a quarterback. Specifically, he's not Peyton Manning.

*He could get there. Fo realz.

22. Cleveland Browns

Lucky Cleveland. The Browns get to be 22. Maybe they can forget about their homeless problem for a short while.

23. New York Giants

See, it isn't so bad, you can win every once in a while when you Luck into 3 interceptions.

24. Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of which... Ok, now back to that Andrew Luck conversation. He gets hyped and hyped after all these wins where he plays like shit and eeks out a lucky win. And then when he ACTUALLY HAS A GREAT GAME FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HIS CAREER, nobody seems to notice/care. He deserves this one. Don't give him the others, but god dammit, give him this one.

25. Minnesota Vikings

TEDDY'S PLAYING!!! AND HE'S STARTING FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON!!! WATCH OUT NFL. I mean, they'll probably give up a fortyburger to the Falcons this week, but they STILL better watch out.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Romo is just really good. This has been true for almost a decade now. The media is really bad at judging quarterbacks. This has been true for even longer (see Elway, John). Oh, the Cowboys still suck though.

27. Oakland Raiders

Here come the really bad teams. The ones I don't want to talk about.

28. Kansas City Chiefs

They won, big whoop, I'm not convinced.

29. Chicago Bears

SHOCKER! They've lucked into their two wins. The defense is still completely awful.

30. St. Louis Rams

I want to talk about them. Well, not the team. Just Austin Davis. I'd never heard of the guy. I don't watch tape on quarterbacks who aren't supposed to be drafted. I don't even know if they have that tape on youtube. But I believe in Austin Davis. Already. This is the next great quarterback in our league. You don't see young guys jump in and play this well. And by "this well" I mean a completion percentage over 70. With 100 attempts. So it's not THAT flukey. You DON'T see this. At least not on a bad team like the Rams.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

See Rams, St. Louis. And change some stuff. I know it was just one game, and I know there were a couple picks, but Blake Bortles is the next Austin Davis. He is, as I described JJ Watt's greatest-ever campaign, fo realz. Much smaller sample size. But I think we have an amazing wave of new quarterbacks starting to play here. Bridgewater, Davis, and Bortles will be the faces of the NFL in 10 years. Because Russell Wilson will have ascended to heaven by then. Or something like that. Everyone will get bored with the Seahawks winning the Superbowl every year.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 2

Hell just froze over.

1. Cincinnati Bengals (1)

For the first time in forever, we have a new number 1. I don't actually think the Seahawks deserve to be dethroned, but I can let it go. The Bengals dominated both weeks. Good for them. In the AFC, the 16-0 watch can already begin. Just kidding. They'll probably swap with the Seahawks next week anyway and everything will go back to normal.

2. Seattle Seahawks (4)

I'm not going to think about this game. Do you want to build a snowman? I realize it can hit almost 120 on the field in summer, but I'm done here. I don't know whether to go to San Diego or leave it for good.

3. Detroit Lions (2)

It wasn't as bad as it looked. Just some problems holding onto the ball.

4. Denver Broncos (17)

This was just Peyton Manning being better than everybody. I mean, not better than Watt, but Peyton was a god this week. And he plays QB. We'll see if he can keep it up at Qwest next week. My guess is no.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (12)

That game never should have been as close as it was. Their opponent's quarterback was terrible. Speaking of which, you're all in Luck. I'm done with these links. Even the (c)link link. Football time.

6. San Francisco 49ers (5)

More about luck: That's what turnovers are, in general. That's why the 49ers lost despite being way better than the Bears.

7. Buffalo Bills (3)

They might be legit!! Maybe. Probably not. They're the Bills. But there's a chance. They dominated the passing game on both sides of the ball and started off 2-0. Kinda like the Seahawks last year. Not suggesting anything, but- Oh wait, I am. We have 3 of our 4 AFC divisions decided already.

8. Arizona Cardinals (19)

Here's a chance for me to talk about my algorithm. Week 2 is probably its worst week. The week where it's most vital that I use last season's data. As you can see, the Cardinals ranked 19th based on just the first 2 weeks despite dominating both games. This is because they're being heavily punished for not dominating the Giants quite as badly as the Lions did (and not dominating the Chargers as badly as the Seahawks did, but we'll get to that later). Add in any more games, and this stops being such a problem. But the parenthetical rankings are VERY untrustworthy.

9. Carolina Panthers (7)

They took advantage of the Lions' mistakes and handily beat what still may be a very dangerous team. Cam looked good in his first game (back).

10. New York Jets (6)

It looked so good early for them! 21-3! And then it fell apart. But even so, they're a top 10 team, and top 4 in their conference.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers (15)

They were as good as the Ravens Thursday night. We know the turnovers are luck. But the Ravens were still the team that put together drives. BUT, more surprisingly, that's also luck. See-ya. Only once we start accepting that EVERYTHING is luck can we make a solid measurement of how lucky certain events are. If I gave it to you as a math problem about a weighted coin, sure, you'd say that Bob and his 20% heads coming the first flip wasn't quite as lucky as Joe and his 80% heads coming up the first 10 times. But introduce a sports context, and everything changes intuitively. We think that the better athletes are just better. They'll beat the worse athletes. It's a game of skill. And you're just wrong. Football has hella luck, CHESS has hella luck,  everything has hella luck. Especially the Colts. But back to the drives. Just kidding, I already explained that. Being consistent is lucky. Consistently not having bad luck can be just as lucky as having a few fluky plays go against you.

12. Green Bay Packers (10)

Nice comeback. Props to them. Still aren't gonna beat the Seahawks. Like, ever. Whoops, sorry. Hopefully it'll be the last time. Shit. Sorry about that again. Like, more than last time. But now I feel like I need to give you good links to make up for that. So here we go: this, this, and this. Now we're even. Or something like that. Oh wait, I have another link, and this one's actually relevant to the topic. Which I had forgotten. As you may have noticed.

13. Tennessee Titans (13)

Not as bad as it looked. Titans = ok/good, Cowboys = bad, no matter what numbers we saw on the scoreboard.

14. New Orleans Saints (26)

You can't lose to the Browns. I mean, sure, the Saints outplayed them, but the Browns were just fucking around. They actually put JOHNNY MANZIEL in the game. Like they expected him to complete a pass or something. They didn't put this guy in the wildcat, it wasn't some gimmick, they just gave Hoyer a breather. WHAT??? Oh right, it's the Browns. Well, hey, the Browns can get lucky too sometimes. They deserve it after that Pats game last year. No link, yay! Oh, you wanted a link this time? Well, too bad. You don't deserve it.

15. Washington Redskins (9)

Dominant. It's the Jags, but huge wins against bad teams are WAY more significant than close wins against good teams. Hence the Redskins making the top half of the power rankings.

16. Miami Dolphins (14)

That was just bad. But looking at their first two opponents before the season, I'm sure most football fans wouldn't have been surprised by their 1-1 record and the fact that both their games were blowouts.

17. San Diego Chargers (27)

See Steelers, Pittsburgh, for a description of why I'm not impressed. There's a reason why they're underdogs against the Bills and the Seahawks are favorites against the Broncos next weekend.

18. New England Patriots (18)

They won a game! Just brilliant by Belichick. If it weren't for him, the Vikings never would have been starting Matt 4-picks Cassel.

19. Baltimore Ravens (11)

I've said everything that needs to be said about them. The same is not true for the next team on this list.

20. Minnesota Vikings (23)

Ahhh, the Vikings. The team that doesn't use last names. Or at least, I can't think of any other excuse for them. They just reinstated Adrian Peterson because they attributed their blowout loss to having to use his backup, Matt ASIATA, rather than to the FOUR INTERCEPTIONS thrown by Matt CASSEL. What I really mean to say is: JUST PUT IN TEDDY BRIDGEWATER ALREADY. I WANT TEDDY. I realize interceptions are mainly luck, but TEDDY BRIDGEWATER IS SO FUCKING GOOD AT FOOTBALL.

21. New York Giants (28)

As discussed in the Cardinals' entry, the Giants performed better in week 2 than in week 1. By virtue of not being destroyed in every aspect of the game. And by virtue of destroying the Cardinals. The -4 turnover margin may have destroyed their chances of winning, but the Giants played like the better team Sunday afternoon.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16)

I don't know about you, but it seemed like Josh McCown channelled his inner T-Swizzle this week to earn the best power ranking. (Twenty-) Two bad he couldn't have attempted one more pass. He played well enough to beat the Rams.

23. Chicago Bears (20)

Interceptions are lucky and they make your team look good. I've said this before. They were worse than the 49ers. Other than the turnovers, their defense was terrible. They were like Dallas, just with WAY better luck in the turnover department.

24. Indianapolis Colts (24)

Andrew Luck? More like Andrew SUCK, am I right? Just kidding, he's actually pretty good. Like, competent good, not good good. Eli Manning good. Carson Palmer good. Mediocre good. But he's a good runner and comebacker. Just like Vince Young. JUST like Vince Young.

25. Houston Texans (8)

They blew them out, but I was kinda expecting them to dominate even more than they did. Maybe they were too busy letting the best player in the world play offense.

26. Dallas Cowboys (26)

See, Titans, Tennessee. For the answer to the question: "Who was the best team playing in Nashville on Sunday?"

27. Atlanta Falcons (22)

Well, that ended quickly. But the Bengals are really good, and Matt Ryan was really unlucky, so you can't blame the Falcons THAT much.

28. Cleveland Browns (32)

I don't know about you, but I'm feeling THIRTY TWO. Again, that's just because they were outplayed by a Saints team that allowed Matt Ryan to pass at will against them week 1. The 28 is more accurate. Not much better though. Maybe if they didn't put in JOHNNY FUCKING MANZIEL (I know I said this before. It needs to be repeated. A lot.). What is this team doing. The owner drafted him because a homeless guy told him to. Maybe that's why they put him in as well.

29. St. Louis Rams (31)

They're bad. Bad teams win sometimes.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (30)

They're bad, but it's hard to blame them for letting Peyton do what he did. He does that to everybody. Well, almost everybody.

31. Oakland Raiders (29)

Well, at least they didn't lose by 31 to the Redskins.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (25)

See Raiders, Oakland for what the Jags shouldn't have done.


Well, the links didn't stop. Or at least they didn't stop when I thought they would. But it's over now. We can forget this week and try to move on.

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 1

Now we come to the second season of my power rankings. Before starting I had one big question to figure out: whether or not last season’s results should count this season. On one hand, it’s a huge amount of data that IS relevant to determining how good these teams are, and since it’s averaged over a 16 game season, a lot of the random fluctuations in performance have dissipated. However, we have to realize these aren’t the same teams as last season. The best example is the Falcons. This may have been one of the worst teams in the league last year, but this year, they’re healthier. They really are a different team, and if their offense really is as good as it performed in week 1, they shouldn’t be punished all this season for being injured during the last one. So I tried to find a balance. I weighted all the games last season as 2 toward this season. So each 2013 game gets counted an eighth as much as normal. The early season variance won’t be able to take too much of a hold, and the overall rankings won’t be too affected by the 2013 numbers if they’re shown to be consistent over a number of games in 2014.

But let’s face it, this isn’t a perfect system by any means. It’s hard to tell after week 1. These rankings are gonna be maybe 30% last season’s skill, 15% this season’s skill, 15% last season’s luck, and 40% this season’s luck (yes, I’m just making up these numbers, but there’s a lot of truth to them). Sorry, those are the wrong percentages. I meant 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, and 50% pain. Or something like that. Don’t remember those. Just the name.  But anyway, as you can see, these numbers aren’t THAT trustworthy. They’ll be way more reliable even just next week though. I also put the rankings based on just 2014 in parentheses.

And without further ado, here are your 2014 week 1 power rankings. Ok, a little further ado. Everybody else calls these the week 2 power rankings. Everybody else is wrong. Now here we go:

1. Seattle Seahawks (6)

The best team last year went out and dominated a team whose ranking last year was affected by injury in a major way. It also wasn’t the kind of dominance some other teams showed, where they just put up some huge numbers on a couple big plays, and we all know a fair chunk of that is just pure luck. The Seahawks are actually just this good. Time will tell for our second place team.

2. Detroit Lions (1)

The big week one winner. Calvin Johnson was unstoppable, the defense was stifling, and the Giants were steamrolled. But we’ve seen the Lions have games like this before. Like against the Packers last year. It’s hard to tell how much they’ll be able to keep it up, but until they fall off, they’ve dominated enough to overcome last season’s mediocrity and earn the number 2 ranking.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4)

Good last year, and still really good this year. The Chargers were lucky to get the lead they did before the Cards came storming back. I’ll admit, I questioned how the Cardinals’ defense could hold together after Docket’s injury, but so far, it looks promising for them; the Chargers have one of the best offensive units in the league, and they were shut down for most of the game.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (7)

The other good AFC team. Let’s start giving this team some more credit. They might have Andy Dalton instead of Tom Brady, but the Patriots suck. They got killed by the fucking Dolphins. If the AFC is a two team race this year like everybody predicts, the Broncos had better make sure they’re looking in the right direction. Northeast. Ok, the same direction. Just not as far in that direction.

5. Denver Broncos (15)

They had a bad second half against the Colts, but Peyton Manning. They couldn’t run the ball very well. But Peyton Manning. They were incapable of covering a 35 year old wide receiver coming off an ACL injury. But – well, you get the idea. The rest of the team might have a lot more flaws than it seemed after last season’s dominance and after their spectacular offseason, but as long as they have the best quarterback in the league, they’ll be a Superbowl contender.

6. New York Jets (2)

The second of the 3 big winners of week 1. They looked pretty good. Or Oakland might just be really bad. But shutting down any NFL team as well as they shut down Oakland is impressive. Best defensive performance of week 1. Now they get the Packers. We’ll see if they can defend them as well as the Seahawks did. My guess is no. But right now my algorithm ranks them as having the 3^rd best defense in the league (2^nd is the Cardinals, and you know who’s first). They might have as good a shot as anybody else (and by else, I mean besides the Seahawks).

7. San Francisco 49ers (14)

I was very pleasantly surprised by how TERRIBLY this team played against an AWFUL Cowboys team. Yeah, they won by double digits. But the Cowboys turned the ball over 4 times in the first half. That’s essentially all luck, remember? You’d better win by double digits when your opponent does that. The 49ers are a team that could fall off this year. Even if they’re a little better than average, it probably won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in the NFC West. And I’m not so sure they’re even that. Ok, they’re above average if we count the AFC, but that’s barely even a conference. I mean, the PATRIOTS went 12-4 in the AFC. The COLTS went 11-5. Those teams are BAD. That conference is BAD. So I guess that’s just BAD luck for the 49ers.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5)

Ben Fuckfuckfuckfuck looked REALLY good. Especially in the first half. This team looked pretty alive offensively, and while the Browns offense, especially passing, may be a shit show, they did have one of the better defenses in the league last year. The Steelers are looking like a good choice for a wild card team at the moment. By virtue of being in the AFC and not being terrible.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (10)

That was a pretty bad first half against a pretty bad opponent, even when you acknowledge that the turnovers are mainly luck. But speaking of turns, they really turned it around in the second half. No need to worry about this team anymore. Unless you’re not an Eagles fan. Then be very worried. Chip Kelly is essentially a football god.

10. Tennessee Titans (8)

The Titans looked good. Against the Chiefs. And this blog has known for a long time how bad the Chiefs actually are. Even when they were undefeated. But hey, beating down bad teams is what you gotta do in the AFC.  This Titans team is first in their division right now. That might not change all season.

11. Minnesota Vikings (9)

They weren’t that bad last year. And the Rams WERE that bad last year. And the Vikings got a little better. And they got lucky to win by so much. But they still completely outplayed St. Louis. And they have TEDDY MOTHERFUCKING BRIDGEWATER THE GREATEST FOOTBALL PLAYER IN THE WORLD. Just kidding, that’s JJ MOTHERFUCKING WATT, but they do have the same middle name. Anyway I really do believe in the Bridge. Enough to call him the Bridge. No clue if anyone else calls him that.

12. Carolina Panthers (18)

They were pretty good last year, but not great. Then they lost all their receivers. And their quarterback. But Kelvin Benjamin looks really good, and they weren’t even that bad without Cam. This team should be fine. Fine enough to make the playoffs in the NFC, I don’t know. Because you have to be really really good to make the playoffs in the NFC.

13. Miami Dolphins (12)

They beat the Pats. Whoop-de-doo. But they actually beat them pretty bad. And that’s actually legit. It’s just one game, but the whole AFC East actually seems reasonable. Except for the Pats, who are in clear last. But they have Brady, they’ll get a few wins in that Conference. Oh right, back to the Dolphins. Yeah, they’re ok. I can definitely see why I got bored talking about them.

14. New Orleans Saints (25)

That was a fun game. They couldn’t seem to play much defense, but there’s no way it’s actually as bad as it looked against the Falcons. It’s one bad game. Luck will even out.

15. Buffalo Bills (13)

They played really well, straight up. Absolutely deserved that win. But there’s no way the Bills offense is ACTUALLY any good, right? The Bears were worst in the league last year on D, maybe they just didn’t get much better.

16. San Diego Chargers (23)

They couldn’t get much of anything going against the Cards. Unusual for what was the third best offense in the league last year. But the Cards were also the third best defense, so you can’t blame the Chargers THAT much. That’s why they only dropped to 16.

17. Atlanta Falcons (3)

The third and final big winner of week 1. Matt Ryan just looked unstoppable. That is all. The defense still sucked. They look like a team that’s going to play a lot of high scoring games.

18. Indianapolis Colts (16)

I wonder if this is the highest the Colts have ever been ranked. I don’t really want to go back and check. But either way, it’s a step forward for this team. They played pretty well for half that game. Time will tell if they can keep it up.

19. Green Bay Packers (30)

I’m still assuming this team is better than 19. Their ranking is just a product of last year’s injuries and having to play the Seahwawks week 1. But it would be REALLY funny if they got killed by the Jets, too.

20. Cleveland Browns (28)

Another team with a big comeback that fell short. But in this case, they were just completely outplayed and lucky to come as close as they did. Johnny won’t help. That dude just isn’t good. But there’s still hope for them that the defense will look more like it did last year than it did in week 1. And the running game looked kinda promising. But let’s face it, things just look good for the Browns when we pick and choose the good parts. And we know that the best part is the conference they play in.

21. Chicago Bears (24)

It’s possible that the defense didn’t get much better from last year. This could be a problem. The hope was that it would become mediocre and BrandonMarshall/AlshonJeffery/MattForte would just dominate enough to make this team a contender. But it didn’t look good against the Bills.

22. Baltimore Ravens (22)

I don’t know about you, but this team just feels 22. But not in the good way. Or maybe in a really good way, because everybody else is worse. Hell, why shouldn’t 22 make the playoffs in the AFC? Ok, maybe it won’t, but the point is it could.

23. Houston Texans (11)

They looked a little better. And by they, I don’t really mean the Texans as a team, because most of that team is bad. I really just mean JJ Watt. I feel like I don’t talk enough about him. But you know how he’s always just way better than anybody else on the field. And how it’s never even close? Yeah, that’s all. I mean, Watt else is there to say? Oh right, that he’s the best football player in the world. Can never say that too many times. He’s the best football player in the world. And he’s also a really nice person. He’s almost too perfect. Like Tay.

24. Dallas Cowboys (19)

That game was not as bad as it could have been.

25. New England Patriots (26)

I’ve talked about them enough. In fact, I’ve probably mentioned already that they’re in clear last in one of the worst divisions in football.

26. St. Louis Rams (29)

Yeah, they’re bad. It doesn’t actually matter if Sam Bradford is healthy.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (17)

Congrats, you played reasonably good defense against a Panthers team without Cam Newton. And lost. But you know how much I care about wins and losses.

28. Washington Redskins (20)

It wasn’t THAT bad. Robert actually played pretty well. It’s just that JJ played better. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team score only 6 points before when their quarterback had a completion percentage within two points of 80.

29. New York Giants (31)

Now we get to the loser of the really really bad game this week. Their offense was always bad, but I don’t know if their D will look more like it did last season or like it did week 1. I’m leaning towards somewhere in the middle. Maybe even slightly above average. This game was at least somewhat a fluke.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (21)

To have the first half they did against the Eagles is impressive, even though they completely blew it. They’re probably a much better team this year. Still really bad, but much better.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (27)

They just aren’t good. I guess the defense is ok. Ok, not good. Probably not even average.  But serviceable in the AFC. The offense on the other hand…

32. Oakland Raiders (32)

There’s no excuse for playing as bad as they did. There’s no hope for this team. Actually there is. Week 1 could have been a fluke, and they could be an average AFC team. Which means they could still get lucky and make they playoffs. But let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.

Ok, so I’ve been bashing the American Football Conference A LOT in this post. And here’s why. I’ll show you the final power rankings from last season with only the conferences shown, not the team names. (The week one rankings are just a case of winning teams going high in the rankings and losing teams going low, and most games were within the conference, so those rankings don’t really have a chance to show the disparity the way last year’s rankings do.)

And here they are:

1. NFC

2. NFC

3. AFC

4. NFC

5. NFC

6. AFC

7. NFC

8. NFC

9. AFC

10. NFC

11. NFC

12. NFC

13. AFC

14. AFC

15. AFC

16. NFC

17. AFC

18. AFC

19. NFC

20. NFC

21. AFC

22. AFC

23. AFC

24. AFC

25. AFC

26. AFC

27. AFC

28. NFC

29. AFC

30. NFC

31. NFC

32. AFC

Notice how there are way more NFCs at the top. If the NFL just sent the 12 best teams to the playoffs, there would be 9 NFC teams and 3 AFC teams. But that’s obviously not how it works, and this is why terrible teams make the playoffs in that conference.