2014 NFL Power Rankings Weeks 14-16

I'm not going to spell anything out this week. Just some charts:

The order on the right hand side is the power rankings for week 16. And as we can see, the league has been the Broncos and then everybody else for a while now. But the Seahawks have finally entered that conversation. And no one else.

Now we get to the defensive chart (based on defensive rank - lower is better):

And offense:

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 13

1. Denver Broncos

Dominant defensive performance, but an off-week for Peyton Manning and the offense, combined with a huge output from the Colts, have pushed the Broncos off from their 1st in O/1st in D pinnacle. Their overall ranking is still 3.14 standard deviations above league average, however. They aren't losing the #1 overall rank anytime soon. So anytime this season.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Still comfortable at #2, and the defense is starting to look better now that it's getting healthier. They could still win the conference.

3. Indianapolis Colts

They dominated a Redskins team that isn't actually so bad. They're no Broncos, they don't have the defense, but they could make a run. A short run.

4. Green Bay Packers

Similar team to the Colts. Great offense, pretty bad defense. I don't think Aaron Rodgers gets enough credit for convincing the media they're a reasonable team on that side of the ball. My rankings have them at 25. That's worse than the Raiders and the Titans. But still 4th overall, thanks to a(n almost) complete lack of good teams this year.

5. Baltimore Ravens

It's Ngata good sign when you lose your best (?) player for the last 4 weeks of the season in the middle of a tight race for a wild card spot.

6. San Diego Chargers

They probably don't get enough rain in San Diego to Phillip Rivers. Ok, that was bad, but Weddle you do about it? I mean Watt will you do about it (Oh, you don't know Watt Watt I'm talking about. Obviously the Chargers' guard Chris Watt).  Now the Rivers one doesn't seem so bad, does it?

7. New England Patriots
8. Detroit Lions
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Philadelphia Cream Cheese
12. Houston Texans

JJ Watt had probably his third best game of the season. And possibly the third greatest game in NFL history.

13. Miami Dolphins

You just gave up 277 rushing yards to the Jets. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

You just lost to the fucking Saints. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

15. San Francisco 49ers

You can't play offense. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

16. Dallas Cowboys

You can't play defense. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

17. Cleveland Browns

You tried to solve your offensive woes by putting in a quarterback you drafted because of a homeless guy. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

18. New Orleans Saints

You're even worse at defense than the Cowboys. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

19. Tennessee Titans

You just allowed 6 TDs to Ryan Fitzpatrick. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

20. Kansas City Chiefs

You're in the same division as the Broncos. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

21. Arizona Cardinals

See, 9ers, San Francisco 4. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

22. Washington Redskins

See Cowboys, Dallas. I'm also running out of problems to mention. THAT'S A PROBLEM. UH OH.

23. Chicago Bears

See Redskins, Washington. Except you don't have a good number like them. You have a shitty number. But maybe your city won't mind.

24. St. Louis Rams

You just lost 52-0 to the Raiders. THAT'S A PROBLEM. Whoops, I got the game backwards. THAT'S NOT A PROBLEM. You're still hopeless. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

25. New York Jets

You can't pass the ball. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

26-32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, New York Giants

THAT'S A PROBLEM.

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 12

Ok, I'm back.

1. Denver Broncos

Still the best offense and defense in the league. Still 3.3 standard deviations above the mean. A couple fluke losses don't mean much. This is the best team in the league, and it's not close.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is the best running quarterback (at running) since Michael Vick. He's currently 40 yards away from being top 10 in the league in rushing. The defense isn't where it was last year, with the pass rush falling off the map, but it's still top 5.

3. New England Patriots

Yup, they've moved up. Gronk is the second best football player in the world. Or something like that. Although he really shouldn't get all the credit. A terrible offensive line early on has just started playing way better. Maybe that's all Gronk, but it's not. For comparison's sake, this team has about the 10th best offense and 10th best defense in the league. Yet they're the 3rd best team. This is how mediocre the NFL is this year. Except the Broncos.

4. Baltimore Ravens

Another team that's just pretty solid. Just In Four Set is balling out.

5. Indianapolis Colts

Tea Why Hill Ton is also balling out.

6. Miami Dolphins

Wow. Another big jump. Camera In Way K is also balling out. I'm gonna stop now.

7. San Diego Chargers
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Washington Redskins
12. Buffalo Bills
13. Cincinnati Bengals
14. San Francisco 49ers
15. Arizona Cardinals
16. Philadelphia Eagles
17. Detroit Lions
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Kansas City Chiefs
20. Houston Texans
21. Cleveland Browns
22. Chicago Bears
23. New Orleans Saints (Finally got to the NFC South!)
24. New York Jets
25. Oakland Raiders
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Minnesota Vikings
29. Carolina Panthers
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. New York Giants

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 8

I'm back. And on a Wednesday, in a cafe, you watched it begin again. At least I assume all y'all'll read this on a Wednesday in a cafe.

1.  Denver Broncos

Holy shit. This team is the best in the league. It's not close. The Broncos are 3.32 standard deviations above the mean. The Seahawks are 1.17 standard deviations above the mean. The Broncos have the number 1 offense AND defense in the league. Nobody can touch this team. I mean, the Seahawks beat them, but everyone loses at some point. The Seahawks were good last year. REALLY good. And they were less than 2 and a half standard deviations above the mean. The Broncos could be the best team of all time.

2. Seattle Seahawks

It might be ugly, but it's been ugly for everyone. Except the Broncos. And it's not like the Seahawks are a dominant 2nd in the league. They are only 1.17 SDs above the mean, after all. The NFL this year is just the Broncos and everybody else. But the top teams in each conference are the same. It's very possible that the Superbowl will be a rematch and the people who ignore football for longer stretches than I do won't realize that everything has changed.

3. Washington Redskins

Too bad I didn't publish my rankings last week with the Redskins here so everybody could see this blog call the shit out of the MNF game. This team might be 3-5, but they're good. Again, it's ugly for everybody; all the non-Broncos games this year are mainly decided by luck. Andrew Luck. Just kidding.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of which... Andrew Luck is finally good. I'll admit, I wish he would've stayed bad. The Colts have a top 5 offense. Maybe top 3. And the defense is wildly inconsistent. As in one of the top 5 defensive performances of the season against the Bengals followed by a bottom 5 performance against the Steelers. Conclusion: they're probably average. Unlike the Broncos.

5. San Diego Chargers

No shame in losing to the Broncos. The Chiefs on the other hand... no clue how they lost that. I mean, I almost do. Luck. Not Andrew. But maybe something else. Maybe they're just not as elite as we thought. Because no one is. Except the Broncos. But the Broncos don't count.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

They got shat on by Indianapolis. Maybe this is the year when everyone gets shat on by everybody else. Except the Broncos. And this won't be the last time I mention them.

7. San Francisco 49ers

Bye. See-ya. See-ya everybody who isn't the Broncos that is. I'm sure the 9ers remember their last game all too well.

8. Baltimore Ravens

They lost a close one to the Bengals, but they're a pretty good team. Then again, a lot of teams are pretty good. Or pretty ok. This season looks pretty treacherous for EVERYONE who isn't Denver.

9. Green Bay Packers

Rodgers had a good run. And by good run, I mean fucking amazing run. But it's over. And he's not doing it again. Like, ever. Nobody is. For a long time. Except maybe Peyton Manning. Because he does things like that. I mean, he hasn't, but he's done similar things.

10. Houston Texans

JJ Watt might be having the 3 best seasons of all time. Not the best 3 season stretch. The best season, the second best season, and the third best season. And now it's time for them to start winning. To take their rightful title as the best team in the state. Exclusively because of JJ Watt. As an aside, I'd like to compare the Texans and Broncos. The Broncos have the most valuable player in the league, because Peyton's a QB. They also might have the best roster in the league ignoring the quarterback position. That's why they're 1, and the Texans are 10. Ok, I didn't really want to do that much comparing.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

Wow, that was a great game by Fuckfuckfuckfuck. Good for them blowing out the number 4 team in the league. Not that 4 is much different from anything other than 1. As I said before, this season everybody shits on everybody. Except the Broncos. The Broncos are not the front seat of Petey's car.

12. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's pretty good. It's like starlight. People in real cities don't realize it's there. But it is, and every once in a while you notice it. On this scale, the Broncos are sunlight.

13. Dallas Cowboys

Losing to the Skins might have been sad. Tragic even. But it was beautiful to see the right team win. Maybe everything is right in the NFL. And by the NFL I mean the regular NFL and the Broncos. Because the Broncos are really in a different league right now.

14. Detroit Lions

Their offense goes from borderline top 5 to borderline bottom 5 when Calvin Johnson disappears. But either way, the defense is elite. With a healthy CJ, this might be the best team in the NFC. That's what a top 5 offense and defense means. But wait, there's trouble. They have to compete with a team that has a top ONE offense and defense. That's just not fair.

15. Tennessee Titans

Still top half! At 2-6. Maybe they're unlucky. Maybe. Although right now, the Broncos might be the unluckiest team in the league. They're that good. Alright, probably not, losing to #2 on the road in overtime is just tough. They weren't really unlucky that game.

16. Miami Dolphins

Do you realize how good the Broncos are? Looking at this entry was the moment I knew the Broncos would be more interesting than every other team combined.

17. Kansas City Chiefs

They have a winning record now, and shockingly, they aren't just winning at home. They even played the Broncos close. I mean, the score was close, the game really wasn't. But the Broncos are really really good, so it's ok.

18. Philadelphia Eagles

They're gonna be here when every game is a comeback. They just aren't convincingly good. Maybe when Evan Mathis is healthy. He might be the second best player in the NFL. Probably not, but top 10. Kinda like what the Broncos are in offense AND defense. Oh wait, that's top ONE.

19. 89 Intermission

No. Just no. That's for the New England Patriots, who are in this spot and get skipped over for the intermission. Now back to 1989. No. Just no. It's not hannenin. 1989 compared to Red is like any team in the NFL compared to the Broncos. And that's Red. Compared to Speak now it's like the '76 Bucs compared to the Broncos. Speaking of the Bucs, guess who's the worst team in the NFL this year. Yeah I'm done. Peace. Long Live Long Live and the Taylor Swift of years past.

20. New Orleans Saints
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. New York Jets
23. Cleveland Browns
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. Minnesota Vikings
26. Chicago Bears
27. Atlanta Falcons
28. Carolina Panthers
29. Oakland Raiders
30. New York Giants
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Things Done Changed

I'm done with football for a while.

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 5

1. Denver Broncos

Surprise number 1. But they just won by 21 against the previously perfect Cardinals, so it's very deserved.

2. Seattle Seahawks

They're really good. This has been true for a lot of weeks. And will be true for at least that many more years. Terrible luck with penalties against Washington kept them out of first since my algorithm doesn't count plays that don't officially happen (like Percy Harvin's 3 TDs).

3. Cincinnati Bengals

The lopsided score was due to luck: the Patriots recovering all 4 fumbles in the game 3 of which were by the Bengals, 0/7 on 3rd down and 0/1 on 4th, etc. But the Bengals didn't outplay the Pats apart from the lucky parts. This is the Pats. If you're an elite team, you should dominate them.

4. San Diego Chargers

They look REALLY good. REALLY REALLY good. Rivers looks like an MVP.

5. Detroit Lions

Still top 5. But they seem to need Calvin Johnson healthy. What a surprise, a 6'5'' receiver with 4.35 speed and a 43" vertical (who is also just really good) is an important component of the Lions' success.

6. San Francisco 49ers

They're good. Fine. They just don't look it. But they belong here.

7. Green Bay Packers

They pooped on the Vikings.

8. Washington Redskins

Probably helped a bit in the rankings by the Percy Harvin TDs getting called back. Also by Desean Jackson being really fast.

9. Buffalo Bills

Great win.

10. Arizona Cardinals

Shitty loss. But it's Denver, they're good, and the Cards stayed in it for a while.

11. Tennessee Titans

Are you from Tennessee? Because HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ELEVENTH?

12. Miami Dolphins

Hm.

13. Baltimore Ravens
14. Indianapolis Colts

Both teams played a lot of bad offense. The Colts just played a little more good offense.

15. Houston Texans

WATT

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

No.

17. Atlanta Falcons

It really wasn't that bad.

18. New York Jets

It was that bad. But the Chargers have been doing this to everyone. Basically. The defense is good, it's just that Rivers can beat good defenses.

19. New Orleans Saints

It might be that bad.

20. Philadelphia Eagles

For a team that was ranked 2nd last year and is 4-1 this year, they're ranked really low by an algorithm that incorporates last season. They need Evan Mathis healthy. Badly. Like the Lions need CJ.

21. Kansas City Chiefs

Why?

22. New England Patriots

I don't know about you, but I'm still not sold. More than a week ago, but that's not saying much.

23. Dallas Cowboys

They might be winning, and dominating on offense while doing so, but the other side of the ball isn't going to keep keeping up.

24. Cleveland Browns

Good thing Homeless Guy didn't ask for Johnny to start.

25. New York Giants

They got lucky. Next.

26. Minnesota Vikings

They need Teddy like the Lions need CJ and the Eagles need Mathis.

27. Chicago Bears
28. Carolina Panthers

Close game between two teams that are both a lot worse than people think they are.

29. St. Louis Rams

I BELIEVE IN AUSTIN DAVIS. EVEN MORE THAN BEFORE (but still slightly less than Teddy).

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ok, I'm done.

31. Oakland Raiders

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 4

I weighted last season as just 1 game (as opposed to 2) for these rankings. I'll probably keep it there for at least a few weeks.

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Bye. Bye. SEE-YA

2. Seattle Seahawks

See Bengals, Cincinnati

3. Denver Broncos

See Seahawks, Seattle

4. San Diego Chargers

It's the Jags. You'll see their ranking. It's basically a bye. So... See Broncos, Denver.

5. Detroit Lions

Finally a team that isn't on a bye! Despite everybody elsa's rankings, they beat a leJetimate contender on Sunday. Probably should be the favorite to win their division. The Lions, that is. And the Jets. Both those teams are better than people think.

6. Arizona Cardinals

See Broncos, Denver. At least they will next week. This might have been the worst week in NFL HISTORY in terms of being able to see the best teams play. 6 teams were on a bye. 7 if you include playing the Jags. And 4.5 of those 6.5 byes were taken by top 6 teams, and the 3.5 of the top 4. That's RIDICULOUS. But no, I'm not gonna look at this historically. That's too much work. I'll just acknowledge how amazing this is. Acknowledge HARD. Ok, it's about 1/1000 that at least 5 of the top 6 teams in the league will be on bye. And there have been much fewer than 1000 weeks in the NFL where byes have occurred. So yeah, this is amazing.

7. San Francisco 49ers

They CRUSHED the Eagles. The Eagles were lucky to be within 20, let alone a play away from winning. This game was really impressive.

8. New York Jets

They may be losing, but close losses with some bad luck aren't a problem for me. The defense is still one of the best in the league.

9. Baltimore Ravens

They've jumped a lot recently. That's what Steve Smith has to do because he's so short. Even shorter than Taylor Swift, in fact. But somehow he can still do things. The number of years he's been alive is more than half the number of inches he is tall. But I digress. I'm coming up short trying to think of more to say about Steve Smith. I really want to say the Ravens are inconsistent. Because that's exactly how they've been playing. But it's never actually like that. The Ravens are just pretty good. And they had a way-better-than-normal game last week (against what might just be a bad Panthers team), which is something that happens. That's all.

10. Washington Redskins

If you have a problem with me not dropping this team after their blowout loss to the Giants, go fund yourself. My algorithm doesn't care about turnovers. That's what killed them on Thursday. It's luck. The Redskins are still actually a pretty good team.

11. Green Bay Packers

What? The 2-1 Bears, who had beaten the 49ers, got shat on by the 1-2 Packers? At Soldier Field? Oh, right, the Bears just always had a terrible defense, and they got lucky in weeks 2 and 3. The Packers aren't that good. Just good enough to take advantage of said terrible defense. Ok, Aaron Rodgers was REALLY good. But not good enough to push the Packers into the top 10 over the Redskins. See-ya.

12. Tennessee Titans

What? This time I'm serious. I'm legitimately confused as to why the Titans are still so high. Confused enough that I rechecked my data. But maybe there's something to it. Maybe. Probably not. But MAYBE my algorithm is smarter than any of us and it recognized that the Titans sucking was just bad luck. Again, probably not, but it's enough for me to not dismiss them the way I dismiss the actually bad teams in the league. Like the Patriots.

13. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have a terrible defense, don't get me wrong, but they've probably been wronged by my algorithm more than anyone. First, they have to deal with last year's numbers from the completely injured squad they had to field back then. Now, they have to suffer the slings and arrows of TEDDY MOTHERFUCKING BRIDGEWATER and my algorithm can't tell the difference between the Cassel-AD Vikings and the Bridgewater-Asiata Vikings. So they get punished for getting pounded by a bad offense when really they got pounded by one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Either way, they have a top 5 offense now that they're healthy*.

*Injured as balls, but Julio Jones is healthy. That's it. Pretty much their whole line isn't. But Jake Matthews will be in a few weeks.

14. New Orleans Saints

HOLY SHIT THEY GOT SHAT ON. Ok, it was bad, but it wasn't that bad. They had some bad luck recovering fumbles. As in, 0 for 4. Not enough to explain the blowout, but enough to make it not be quite as bad.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Now, this is the team that REALLY got shat on. I discussed this in my 49ers section. They're just not that good this year. Not that bad, either, but not a contender like when they had Desean Jackson.

16. Buffalo Bills

Ok, they had a close loss. But a loss is to be expected when the greatest player in the world has the greatest game in nfl history for your opponent.

17. Indianapolis Colts

Another dominant win, another great performance for Andrew Luck. Maybe this is his breakout year. He's finally putting up numbers that are better than league average. And they're way better. This is the kind of thing you would have thought he was already doing his first two years given all the credit he got from the media.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

They lost. I don't care about that. That was as fair a matchup as we've seen in the NFL. Either team could have won that game. But I do care about the team they played. That would be the Bucs. The team that lost 56-14 the week before. You can't play evenly with the Bucs. That's just embarrassing.

19. Miami Dolphins

That was a really dominant win. Props to them. It was also the Raiders. The team that lost to the Patriots. But I'll give credit where credit is due. It's a feat to beat ANY team the way the Dolphins beat Oakland.

20. Houston Texans

Watt else is there to talk about? He had NINE qb knockdowns. NINE. That's not a bad number for a TEAM TOTAL AFTER 4 GAMES. He almost singlehandedly shut down the Bills' passing attack. Oh, and he had an 80 yard pick 6, no big deal. This game was the G.O.A.T. This player might be the G.O.A.T.  The team, not so much, but it definitely has a chance to win that division as long as JJ is playing.

21. Minnesota Vikings

And here comes JJ's competition. TEDDY YOU-KNOW-WHAT-MY-MIDDLE-NAME-IS BRIDGEWATER. That was an amazing game. Over 300 yards on 30 attempts, a rushing touchdown, brilliant poise and athleticism in the pocket, and an ankle sprain. But he'll be fine. And by fine I mean one of the greatest players to ever set foot on the gridiron. But not JJ Watt. Because when he retires, NO ONE will be CLOSE to JJ Watt. JJ Watt the fuck are you doing comparing me to ANYBODY.

22. Dallas Cowboys

They sure played like they were feeling 22 against the Saints. I'm not gonna link you because you know how to use the internet. Just kidding. Anyway, Tony looks good. Really good. And the running game looks good. Really good. Top 5 offense. Bottom 5 defense. That's good enough a lot of times. I mean, not for the Cowboys, they haven't had, you know, success, in a while, but they've had a great quarterback FOR a while. In fact, Romo's career passer rating, albeit through under 10 years, so it's a small sample size, is 22 points higher than Elway's through his first 10 years. Just to put things in perspective, Tom Brady's rating last year wasn't 22 points higher than ANY qualified passer.

23. New York Giants

I don't care, lalalalalala. You lucked into hella turnovers. That's what the Bears did, and they're bad, so I'm just gonna put the Giants in the same category. Mediocre NFC teams who've gotten lucky enough to be .500 in a conference where they could easily be struggling to win a game. We can also put the Panthers in that category.

24. Cleveland Browns

See Cardinals, Arizona. Except for the ranking.

25. New England Patriots

See, it's not that bad, you're still ranked higher than the really awful teams. And Garawhatthefuckishisname looked pretty good on that one drive.

26. Kansas City Chiefs

Good win. That's two blowout wins in a row. I'm still not impressed. Remember, this is the same team that got destroyed by the Titans.

27. Carolina Panthers

Wow, that was a bad game. They're done. In my mind.

28. Chicago Bears

See Panthers, Carolina. Except they've been done for a little longer. Still in my mind.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They had a game that looked like football. And that's enough to make it to the 20s.

30. Oakland Raiders

THIS is why THAT'S enough to make it to the 20s.

31. St. Louis Rams

I think they're going to start Shaun Hill over Austin Davis. TELL ME WHY!!!! They finally found their QB of the future. So what if it's not Bradford.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Bortles is gonna be pretty good. His team just sucks. He should be forcing shit. He has to. His team sucks.