2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 3

Here we go: old school

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Still number one after demolishing the Titans. Although it wasn't quite as dominant as the score showed. They lost (holy) ground on our number 2 team.

2. Seattle Seahawks

But let's face it, we know who's going to win the Superbowl this year. And the next 15. The Broncos we're lucky to play them as close as they did. Speaking of which...

3. Detroit Lions

You may think I'm Lion, but the Broncos don't crack the top 3. This team looks really good on offense AND defense. They won by double digits despite having two more turnovers than the Packers. They're just good. And it's week 3 already, we can start trusting these rankings at least a little bit.

4. Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning is god. Sorry good. Nah, god is probably closer. Their defense is good. Like, slightly better than average. It held Russell "best passer rating in the league" Wilson under the 100 mark for the first time this season (99.9, to be more precise). Couldn't do the same to Jermaine Kearse though. Couldn't even hold him under a 100 QBR! This is probably the first (and last) time I'll reference QBR. And that song I just linked to. Well not the first. But the last. Shit. Maybe that's just like when I mentioned QBR in my sentence about not referencing QBR. It doesn't count. At least it'd better not. But anyway, my next link will make up for it.

5. San Diego Chargers

Their offense is AMAZING. And by their offense, I mean quarterback. (Because let's face it, here's how much I care about rushing. Enough to make it count equally to passing in my algorithm. Except that doesn't really happen, because the numbers are all so much lower than passing numbers. And I use exponents >1.) Rivers had one of the best games of any quarterback this season against the Bills. He put up Russell Wilson numbers. As in he went 18/25 for 2 TDs (In case you missed it, that was RW's line in the Superbowl.).

6. Arizona Cardinals

Before I go on, I want to point out that FOUR of the 6 best teams in the league have a bye this week. Which is ridiculous. I mean, it's not like they were trying to do it. But back to the Cardinals. They shat on the 49ers. They have one of the best defenses in the league. Again. It's not like they weren't amazing last year. You just didn't notice. Oh wait you did. Because you read my blog last year.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

That was a fun game.

8. New York Jets

I don't care about winning, remember? That's why the Jets are 21 spots ahead of the Bears. They played better. And got unlucky.

9. San Francisco 49ers. They're worse this year. Maybe bad enough to miss the playoffs in a division with the Seahawks and Cardinals. But it's not like they're actually a bad team.

10. Washington Redskins

See Eagles, Philadelphia

11. New Orleans Saints

They won! And looked pretty good doing it. It's going to be a dogfight between them and the number twelve team for the NFC South.

12. Atlanta Falcons

This is the team that gets punished for last year way too much. Or maybe just the right amount. I really don't know. But I do know that they're ranked 2nd just based on 2014 (to the team they lost to. And right ahead of the defending champions). I might decrease the weight of 2013 next week. To one and a half games or so. I'll let you know then. Anyway, that win was impressive as shit. Did the Seahawks beat the Bucs by 42 last year? It's good to win by fewer points, right? That's why Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL. Except for this week. But actually, he - never mind, I'll get to that later.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers

They ran the ball really well. REALLY WELL. Against one of the best front 7s in the league. 264 yards well.

14. Tennessee Titans

Cincinnati is good, and the loss wasn't nearly as bad as it looked. They'll be just fine cruising to a division title.

15. Green Bay Packers

They've played 3 top 10 teams. And 2 top 3 teams. And have been destroyed. Let's see if they'll be able to keep using the strength of schedule excuse.

16. Buffalo Bills

Didn't look quite so good this week. But maybe Rivers is just that good. Maybe the Bills are just a poor man's Seahawks. And by poor, I mean homeless as shit. Like the guy responsible for the Browns drafting Johnny Manziel.

17. Carolina Panthers

I don't know what to make of this team. Are they actually that bad? Was the Pittsburgh game just a fluke? Welll, the answer is always a little of both. They're probably just average.

18. New England Patriots

They won! At home! Against the Raiders! On a penalty at the end of the game! They're gonna win the Superbowl now! Surrrrrrrre, Tannerrrrrrr.

19. Miami Dolphins

I don't know what happened. Like, no fucking clue. Next.

20. Baltimore Ravens

See Patriots, New England. And adjust as necessary. The biggest difference is probably that it hasn't been a decade since the Ravens won the Superbowl.

21. Houston Texans

JJ Watt. Everybody else. JJ Watt. Everybody else. JJ Watt. Yeah, the Texans are 21, he's not that good. And by not that good, I mean he's by far* the best player of all time. He's just not a quarterback. Specifically, he's not Peyton Manning.

*He could get there. Fo realz.

22. Cleveland Browns

Lucky Cleveland. The Browns get to be 22. Maybe they can forget about their homeless problem for a short while.

23. New York Giants

See, it isn't so bad, you can win every once in a while when you Luck into 3 interceptions.

24. Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of which... Ok, now back to that Andrew Luck conversation. He gets hyped and hyped after all these wins where he plays like shit and eeks out a lucky win. And then when he ACTUALLY HAS A GREAT GAME FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HIS CAREER, nobody seems to notice/care. He deserves this one. Don't give him the others, but god dammit, give him this one.

25. Minnesota Vikings

TEDDY'S PLAYING!!! AND HE'S STARTING FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON!!! WATCH OUT NFL. I mean, they'll probably give up a fortyburger to the Falcons this week, but they STILL better watch out.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Romo is just really good. This has been true for almost a decade now. The media is really bad at judging quarterbacks. This has been true for even longer (see Elway, John). Oh, the Cowboys still suck though.

27. Oakland Raiders

Here come the really bad teams. The ones I don't want to talk about.

28. Kansas City Chiefs

They won, big whoop, I'm not convinced.

29. Chicago Bears

SHOCKER! They've lucked into their two wins. The defense is still completely awful.

30. St. Louis Rams

I want to talk about them. Well, not the team. Just Austin Davis. I'd never heard of the guy. I don't watch tape on quarterbacks who aren't supposed to be drafted. I don't even know if they have that tape on youtube. But I believe in Austin Davis. Already. This is the next great quarterback in our league. You don't see young guys jump in and play this well. And by "this well" I mean a completion percentage over 70. With 100 attempts. So it's not THAT flukey. You DON'T see this. At least not on a bad team like the Rams.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

See Rams, St. Louis. And change some stuff. I know it was just one game, and I know there were a couple picks, but Blake Bortles is the next Austin Davis. He is, as I described JJ Watt's greatest-ever campaign, fo realz. Much smaller sample size. But I think we have an amazing wave of new quarterbacks starting to play here. Bridgewater, Davis, and Bortles will be the faces of the NFL in 10 years. Because Russell Wilson will have ascended to heaven by then. Or something like that. Everyone will get bored with the Seahawks winning the Superbowl every year.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 2

Hell just froze over.

1. Cincinnati Bengals (1)

For the first time in forever, we have a new number 1. I don't actually think the Seahawks deserve to be dethroned, but I can let it go. The Bengals dominated both weeks. Good for them. In the AFC, the 16-0 watch can already begin. Just kidding. They'll probably swap with the Seahawks next week anyway and everything will go back to normal.

2. Seattle Seahawks (4)

I'm not going to think about this game. Do you want to build a snowman? I realize it can hit almost 120 on the field in summer, but I'm done here. I don't know whether to go to San Diego or leave it for good.

3. Detroit Lions (2)

It wasn't as bad as it looked. Just some problems holding onto the ball.

4. Denver Broncos (17)

This was just Peyton Manning being better than everybody. I mean, not better than Watt, but Peyton was a god this week. And he plays QB. We'll see if he can keep it up at Qwest next week. My guess is no.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (12)

That game never should have been as close as it was. Their opponent's quarterback was terrible. Speaking of which, you're all in Luck. I'm done with these links. Even the (c)link link. Football time.

6. San Francisco 49ers (5)

More about luck: That's what turnovers are, in general. That's why the 49ers lost despite being way better than the Bears.

7. Buffalo Bills (3)

They might be legit!! Maybe. Probably not. They're the Bills. But there's a chance. They dominated the passing game on both sides of the ball and started off 2-0. Kinda like the Seahawks last year. Not suggesting anything, but- Oh wait, I am. We have 3 of our 4 AFC divisions decided already.

8. Arizona Cardinals (19)

Here's a chance for me to talk about my algorithm. Week 2 is probably its worst week. The week where it's most vital that I use last season's data. As you can see, the Cardinals ranked 19th based on just the first 2 weeks despite dominating both games. This is because they're being heavily punished for not dominating the Giants quite as badly as the Lions did (and not dominating the Chargers as badly as the Seahawks did, but we'll get to that later). Add in any more games, and this stops being such a problem. But the parenthetical rankings are VERY untrustworthy.

9. Carolina Panthers (7)

They took advantage of the Lions' mistakes and handily beat what still may be a very dangerous team. Cam looked good in his first game (back).

10. New York Jets (6)

It looked so good early for them! 21-3! And then it fell apart. But even so, they're a top 10 team, and top 4 in their conference.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers (15)

They were as good as the Ravens Thursday night. We know the turnovers are luck. But the Ravens were still the team that put together drives. BUT, more surprisingly, that's also luck. See-ya. Only once we start accepting that EVERYTHING is luck can we make a solid measurement of how lucky certain events are. If I gave it to you as a math problem about a weighted coin, sure, you'd say that Bob and his 20% heads coming the first flip wasn't quite as lucky as Joe and his 80% heads coming up the first 10 times. But introduce a sports context, and everything changes intuitively. We think that the better athletes are just better. They'll beat the worse athletes. It's a game of skill. And you're just wrong. Football has hella luck, CHESS has hella luck,  everything has hella luck. Especially the Colts. But back to the drives. Just kidding, I already explained that. Being consistent is lucky. Consistently not having bad luck can be just as lucky as having a few fluky plays go against you.

12. Green Bay Packers (10)

Nice comeback. Props to them. Still aren't gonna beat the Seahawks. Like, ever. Whoops, sorry. Hopefully it'll be the last time. Shit. Sorry about that again. Like, more than last time. But now I feel like I need to give you good links to make up for that. So here we go: this, this, and this. Now we're even. Or something like that. Oh wait, I have another link, and this one's actually relevant to the topic. Which I had forgotten. As you may have noticed.

13. Tennessee Titans (13)

Not as bad as it looked. Titans = ok/good, Cowboys = bad, no matter what numbers we saw on the scoreboard.

14. New Orleans Saints (26)

You can't lose to the Browns. I mean, sure, the Saints outplayed them, but the Browns were just fucking around. They actually put JOHNNY MANZIEL in the game. Like they expected him to complete a pass or something. They didn't put this guy in the wildcat, it wasn't some gimmick, they just gave Hoyer a breather. WHAT??? Oh right, it's the Browns. Well, hey, the Browns can get lucky too sometimes. They deserve it after that Pats game last year. No link, yay! Oh, you wanted a link this time? Well, too bad. You don't deserve it.

15. Washington Redskins (9)

Dominant. It's the Jags, but huge wins against bad teams are WAY more significant than close wins against good teams. Hence the Redskins making the top half of the power rankings.

16. Miami Dolphins (14)

That was just bad. But looking at their first two opponents before the season, I'm sure most football fans wouldn't have been surprised by their 1-1 record and the fact that both their games were blowouts.

17. San Diego Chargers (27)

See Steelers, Pittsburgh, for a description of why I'm not impressed. There's a reason why they're underdogs against the Bills and the Seahawks are favorites against the Broncos next weekend.

18. New England Patriots (18)

They won a game! Just brilliant by Belichick. If it weren't for him, the Vikings never would have been starting Matt 4-picks Cassel.

19. Baltimore Ravens (11)

I've said everything that needs to be said about them. The same is not true for the next team on this list.

20. Minnesota Vikings (23)

Ahhh, the Vikings. The team that doesn't use last names. Or at least, I can't think of any other excuse for them. They just reinstated Adrian Peterson because they attributed their blowout loss to having to use his backup, Matt ASIATA, rather than to the FOUR INTERCEPTIONS thrown by Matt CASSEL. What I really mean to say is: JUST PUT IN TEDDY BRIDGEWATER ALREADY. I WANT TEDDY. I realize interceptions are mainly luck, but TEDDY BRIDGEWATER IS SO FUCKING GOOD AT FOOTBALL.

21. New York Giants (28)

As discussed in the Cardinals' entry, the Giants performed better in week 2 than in week 1. By virtue of not being destroyed in every aspect of the game. And by virtue of destroying the Cardinals. The -4 turnover margin may have destroyed their chances of winning, but the Giants played like the better team Sunday afternoon.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16)

I don't know about you, but it seemed like Josh McCown channelled his inner T-Swizzle this week to earn the best power ranking. (Twenty-) Two bad he couldn't have attempted one more pass. He played well enough to beat the Rams.

23. Chicago Bears (20)

Interceptions are lucky and they make your team look good. I've said this before. They were worse than the 49ers. Other than the turnovers, their defense was terrible. They were like Dallas, just with WAY better luck in the turnover department.

24. Indianapolis Colts (24)

Andrew Luck? More like Andrew SUCK, am I right? Just kidding, he's actually pretty good. Like, competent good, not good good. Eli Manning good. Carson Palmer good. Mediocre good. But he's a good runner and comebacker. Just like Vince Young. JUST like Vince Young.

25. Houston Texans (8)

They blew them out, but I was kinda expecting them to dominate even more than they did. Maybe they were too busy letting the best player in the world play offense.

26. Dallas Cowboys (26)

See, Titans, Tennessee. For the answer to the question: "Who was the best team playing in Nashville on Sunday?"

27. Atlanta Falcons (22)

Well, that ended quickly. But the Bengals are really good, and Matt Ryan was really unlucky, so you can't blame the Falcons THAT much.

28. Cleveland Browns (32)

I don't know about you, but I'm feeling THIRTY TWO. Again, that's just because they were outplayed by a Saints team that allowed Matt Ryan to pass at will against them week 1. The 28 is more accurate. Not much better though. Maybe if they didn't put in JOHNNY FUCKING MANZIEL (I know I said this before. It needs to be repeated. A lot.). What is this team doing. The owner drafted him because a homeless guy told him to. Maybe that's why they put him in as well.

29. St. Louis Rams (31)

They're bad. Bad teams win sometimes.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (30)

They're bad, but it's hard to blame them for letting Peyton do what he did. He does that to everybody. Well, almost everybody.

31. Oakland Raiders (29)

Well, at least they didn't lose by 31 to the Redskins.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (25)

See Raiders, Oakland for what the Jags shouldn't have done.


Well, the links didn't stop. Or at least they didn't stop when I thought they would. But it's over now. We can forget this week and try to move on.

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 1

Now we come to the second season of my power rankings. Before starting I had one big question to figure out: whether or not last season’s results should count this season. On one hand, it’s a huge amount of data that IS relevant to determining how good these teams are, and since it’s averaged over a 16 game season, a lot of the random fluctuations in performance have dissipated. However, we have to realize these aren’t the same teams as last season. The best example is the Falcons. This may have been one of the worst teams in the league last year, but this year, they’re healthier. They really are a different team, and if their offense really is as good as it performed in week 1, they shouldn’t be punished all this season for being injured during the last one. So I tried to find a balance. I weighted all the games last season as 2 toward this season. So each 2013 game gets counted an eighth as much as normal. The early season variance won’t be able to take too much of a hold, and the overall rankings won’t be too affected by the 2013 numbers if they’re shown to be consistent over a number of games in 2014.

But let’s face it, this isn’t a perfect system by any means. It’s hard to tell after week 1. These rankings are gonna be maybe 30% last season’s skill, 15% this season’s skill, 15% last season’s luck, and 40% this season’s luck (yes, I’m just making up these numbers, but there’s a lot of truth to them). Sorry, those are the wrong percentages. I meant 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, and 50% pain. Or something like that. Don’t remember those. Just the name.  But anyway, as you can see, these numbers aren’t THAT trustworthy. They’ll be way more reliable even just next week though. I also put the rankings based on just 2014 in parentheses.

And without further ado, here are your 2014 week 1 power rankings. Ok, a little further ado. Everybody else calls these the week 2 power rankings. Everybody else is wrong. Now here we go:

1. Seattle Seahawks (6)

The best team last year went out and dominated a team whose ranking last year was affected by injury in a major way. It also wasn’t the kind of dominance some other teams showed, where they just put up some huge numbers on a couple big plays, and we all know a fair chunk of that is just pure luck. The Seahawks are actually just this good. Time will tell for our second place team.

2. Detroit Lions (1)

The big week one winner. Calvin Johnson was unstoppable, the defense was stifling, and the Giants were steamrolled. But we’ve seen the Lions have games like this before. Like against the Packers last year. It’s hard to tell how much they’ll be able to keep it up, but until they fall off, they’ve dominated enough to overcome last season’s mediocrity and earn the number 2 ranking.

3. Arizona Cardinals (4)

Good last year, and still really good this year. The Chargers were lucky to get the lead they did before the Cards came storming back. I’ll admit, I questioned how the Cardinals’ defense could hold together after Docket’s injury, but so far, it looks promising for them; the Chargers have one of the best offensive units in the league, and they were shut down for most of the game.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (7)

The other good AFC team. Let’s start giving this team some more credit. They might have Andy Dalton instead of Tom Brady, but the Patriots suck. They got killed by the fucking Dolphins. If the AFC is a two team race this year like everybody predicts, the Broncos had better make sure they’re looking in the right direction. Northeast. Ok, the same direction. Just not as far in that direction.

5. Denver Broncos (15)

They had a bad second half against the Colts, but Peyton Manning. They couldn’t run the ball very well. But Peyton Manning. They were incapable of covering a 35 year old wide receiver coming off an ACL injury. But – well, you get the idea. The rest of the team might have a lot more flaws than it seemed after last season’s dominance and after their spectacular offseason, but as long as they have the best quarterback in the league, they’ll be a Superbowl contender.

6. New York Jets (2)

The second of the 3 big winners of week 1. They looked pretty good. Or Oakland might just be really bad. But shutting down any NFL team as well as they shut down Oakland is impressive. Best defensive performance of week 1. Now they get the Packers. We’ll see if they can defend them as well as the Seahawks did. My guess is no. But right now my algorithm ranks them as having the 3^rd best defense in the league (2^nd is the Cardinals, and you know who’s first). They might have as good a shot as anybody else (and by else, I mean besides the Seahawks).

7. San Francisco 49ers (14)

I was very pleasantly surprised by how TERRIBLY this team played against an AWFUL Cowboys team. Yeah, they won by double digits. But the Cowboys turned the ball over 4 times in the first half. That’s essentially all luck, remember? You’d better win by double digits when your opponent does that. The 49ers are a team that could fall off this year. Even if they’re a little better than average, it probably won’t be good enough to make the playoffs in the NFC West. And I’m not so sure they’re even that. Ok, they’re above average if we count the AFC, but that’s barely even a conference. I mean, the PATRIOTS went 12-4 in the AFC. The COLTS went 11-5. Those teams are BAD. That conference is BAD. So I guess that’s just BAD luck for the 49ers.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5)

Ben Fuckfuckfuckfuck looked REALLY good. Especially in the first half. This team looked pretty alive offensively, and while the Browns offense, especially passing, may be a shit show, they did have one of the better defenses in the league last year. The Steelers are looking like a good choice for a wild card team at the moment. By virtue of being in the AFC and not being terrible.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (10)

That was a pretty bad first half against a pretty bad opponent, even when you acknowledge that the turnovers are mainly luck. But speaking of turns, they really turned it around in the second half. No need to worry about this team anymore. Unless you’re not an Eagles fan. Then be very worried. Chip Kelly is essentially a football god.

10. Tennessee Titans (8)

The Titans looked good. Against the Chiefs. And this blog has known for a long time how bad the Chiefs actually are. Even when they were undefeated. But hey, beating down bad teams is what you gotta do in the AFC.  This Titans team is first in their division right now. That might not change all season.

11. Minnesota Vikings (9)

They weren’t that bad last year. And the Rams WERE that bad last year. And the Vikings got a little better. And they got lucky to win by so much. But they still completely outplayed St. Louis. And they have TEDDY MOTHERFUCKING BRIDGEWATER THE GREATEST FOOTBALL PLAYER IN THE WORLD. Just kidding, that’s JJ MOTHERFUCKING WATT, but they do have the same middle name. Anyway I really do believe in the Bridge. Enough to call him the Bridge. No clue if anyone else calls him that.

12. Carolina Panthers (18)

They were pretty good last year, but not great. Then they lost all their receivers. And their quarterback. But Kelvin Benjamin looks really good, and they weren’t even that bad without Cam. This team should be fine. Fine enough to make the playoffs in the NFC, I don’t know. Because you have to be really really good to make the playoffs in the NFC.

13. Miami Dolphins (12)

They beat the Pats. Whoop-de-doo. But they actually beat them pretty bad. And that’s actually legit. It’s just one game, but the whole AFC East actually seems reasonable. Except for the Pats, who are in clear last. But they have Brady, they’ll get a few wins in that Conference. Oh right, back to the Dolphins. Yeah, they’re ok. I can definitely see why I got bored talking about them.

14. New Orleans Saints (25)

That was a fun game. They couldn’t seem to play much defense, but there’s no way it’s actually as bad as it looked against the Falcons. It’s one bad game. Luck will even out.

15. Buffalo Bills (13)

They played really well, straight up. Absolutely deserved that win. But there’s no way the Bills offense is ACTUALLY any good, right? The Bears were worst in the league last year on D, maybe they just didn’t get much better.

16. San Diego Chargers (23)

They couldn’t get much of anything going against the Cards. Unusual for what was the third best offense in the league last year. But the Cards were also the third best defense, so you can’t blame the Chargers THAT much. That’s why they only dropped to 16.

17. Atlanta Falcons (3)

The third and final big winner of week 1. Matt Ryan just looked unstoppable. That is all. The defense still sucked. They look like a team that’s going to play a lot of high scoring games.

18. Indianapolis Colts (16)

I wonder if this is the highest the Colts have ever been ranked. I don’t really want to go back and check. But either way, it’s a step forward for this team. They played pretty well for half that game. Time will tell if they can keep it up.

19. Green Bay Packers (30)

I’m still assuming this team is better than 19. Their ranking is just a product of last year’s injuries and having to play the Seahwawks week 1. But it would be REALLY funny if they got killed by the Jets, too.

20. Cleveland Browns (28)

Another team with a big comeback that fell short. But in this case, they were just completely outplayed and lucky to come as close as they did. Johnny won’t help. That dude just isn’t good. But there’s still hope for them that the defense will look more like it did last year than it did in week 1. And the running game looked kinda promising. But let’s face it, things just look good for the Browns when we pick and choose the good parts. And we know that the best part is the conference they play in.

21. Chicago Bears (24)

It’s possible that the defense didn’t get much better from last year. This could be a problem. The hope was that it would become mediocre and BrandonMarshall/AlshonJeffery/MattForte would just dominate enough to make this team a contender. But it didn’t look good against the Bills.

22. Baltimore Ravens (22)

I don’t know about you, but this team just feels 22. But not in the good way. Or maybe in a really good way, because everybody else is worse. Hell, why shouldn’t 22 make the playoffs in the AFC? Ok, maybe it won’t, but the point is it could.

23. Houston Texans (11)

They looked a little better. And by they, I don’t really mean the Texans as a team, because most of that team is bad. I really just mean JJ Watt. I feel like I don’t talk enough about him. But you know how he’s always just way better than anybody else on the field. And how it’s never even close? Yeah, that’s all. I mean, Watt else is there to say? Oh right, that he’s the best football player in the world. Can never say that too many times. He’s the best football player in the world. And he’s also a really nice person. He’s almost too perfect. Like Tay.

24. Dallas Cowboys (19)

That game was not as bad as it could have been.

25. New England Patriots (26)

I’ve talked about them enough. In fact, I’ve probably mentioned already that they’re in clear last in one of the worst divisions in football.

26. St. Louis Rams (29)

Yeah, they’re bad. It doesn’t actually matter if Sam Bradford is healthy.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (17)

Congrats, you played reasonably good defense against a Panthers team without Cam Newton. And lost. But you know how much I care about wins and losses.

28. Washington Redskins (20)

It wasn’t THAT bad. Robert actually played pretty well. It’s just that JJ played better. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team score only 6 points before when their quarterback had a completion percentage within two points of 80.

29. New York Giants (31)

Now we get to the loser of the really really bad game this week. Their offense was always bad, but I don’t know if their D will look more like it did last season or like it did week 1. I’m leaning towards somewhere in the middle. Maybe even slightly above average. This game was at least somewhat a fluke.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (21)

To have the first half they did against the Eagles is impressive, even though they completely blew it. They’re probably a much better team this year. Still really bad, but much better.

31. Kansas City Chiefs (27)

They just aren’t good. I guess the defense is ok. Ok, not good. Probably not even average.  But serviceable in the AFC. The offense on the other hand…

32. Oakland Raiders (32)

There’s no excuse for playing as bad as they did. There’s no hope for this team. Actually there is. Week 1 could have been a fluke, and they could be an average AFC team. Which means they could still get lucky and make they playoffs. But let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.

Ok, so I’ve been bashing the American Football Conference A LOT in this post. And here’s why. I’ll show you the final power rankings from last season with only the conferences shown, not the team names. (The week one rankings are just a case of winning teams going high in the rankings and losing teams going low, and most games were within the conference, so those rankings don’t really have a chance to show the disparity the way last year’s rankings do.)

And here they are:

1. NFC

2. NFC

3. AFC

4. NFC

5. NFC

6. AFC

7. NFC

8. NFC

9. AFC

10. NFC

11. NFC

12. NFC

13. AFC

14. AFC

15. AFC

16. NFC

17. AFC

18. AFC

19. NFC

20. NFC

21. AFC

22. AFC

23. AFC

24. AFC

25. AFC

26. AFC

27. AFC

28. NFC

29. AFC

30. NFC

31. NFC

32. AFC

Notice how there are way more NFCs at the top. If the NFL just sent the 12 best teams to the playoffs, there would be 9 NFC teams and 3 AFC teams. But that’s obviously not how it works, and this is why terrible teams make the playoffs in that conference.

Super Bowl Prediction

Seahawks 31, Broncos 17

At the beginning of the year, I would not have expected to be picking against Denver. They were playing as well as any football team ever, and it didn't look like anyone would come close. But due to the nonlinear nature of my metric, their ranking was based on a value that could come down pretty fast. And it did. Not out of the top few teams in the league, mind you, but when there's a cubic term, there can be a big difference between first by a lot and first by a little. And half way through the season, the Seahawks pulled ahead. And never looked back. They snuck into the number one spot defensively only in the last week of the season. But what went unnoticed to the mainstream was their offense. They may not have piled up a lot of yards, which happens when you run the ball a lot. But still, only seven teams managed to score more points. In fact, a lot of fans would be shocked to learn that neither the Saints nor the Chargers were able to score as much as the offenseless Seahawks. And those teams didn't have to face the Cardinals and 49ers twice. The Seahawks have the skill to dominate on offense as much as any team sitting at home. When they open up the passing game, they're lethal. And they will. Darrell Bevell finally showed a willingness to make non-horrendous decisions during the conference championship game. Against a defense that has Terrance Knighton in the middle, he'd be hard pressed not to do it again. And exploiting this mismatch is going to be the big difference in the game. The Seahawks are actually the team with the practically unstoppable offense. Bevell was the only thing stopping them all season.

As we can see with my rankings, the Seahawks are the much better team. The gap between them and the Broncos was almost twice the gap between the league's third place team, the Patriots, and its last place team, the Texans (ok, that's more of a function of the luck (or lack thereof) for the Pats and Texans, but the Seahawks are clearly superior to Denver).

...

But something's being overlooked. Injuries. And the fact is, the Seahawks are a much healthier team. I want to talk about two players specifically. To do this, I'll take us back to a time when we could see both of them playing healthy for an extended period of time. Specifically, midway through the 2012 season. Let's go.

So it's the start of November now, and we're trying to decide on the ten best players in the league. The Broncos aren't very far into that 11 game winning streak, but Peyton still makes it. We realize he's back. Adrian Peterson has been good, but his first half just isn't at MVP level yet. But it turns out we're lying to ourselves, because the top two MVP candidates in the future aren't the two best players right now. In fact, they AREN'T THE BEST PLAYERS ON THEIR OWN TEAMS. That's right. Other than JJ Watt, the two best players in the world are their teammates: Von Miller and Percy Harvin. And on that note, we come back to the present, when one of these two players is about to be a world champion. But one of them isn't playing. That .1 difference between the Seahawks and Broncos? That was with a top 3 player in the NFL playing half the season. And more importantly, with another top 3 player not playing (pretty much) at all. But it's all switched now. And the Seahawks have a huge advantage.

I will acknowledge the variance in football, and I will acknowledge that my predicted score does not, by any means, represent an actual, calculated, median score, or even average score, for each team. But it's no fun to give a real prediction, like: the Seahawks' score will be (approximately) normally distributed with mean 26 and standard deviation 8, and the Broncos' score will be (even more approximately) normally distributed with mean 21 and standard deviation 12. Which leads to a probability .64 for the Seahawks winning. If you want to judge me based on a prediction, judge me based on this one. And don't give me credit for my first one. I did that to grab attention. And show the strength of my convictions about my model. And that's all any "expert" on espn is doing as well. The probability that the final score is 31-17 is pretty much identical to the probability that it's 26-21 (In fact, it's higher, because 26 isn't that common a football score.). And wouldn't it be wonderful if I were right?

A Super Matchup (Part 2: Rushing)

Rushing. Like that matters. Yeah, right.

A Super Matchup (Part 1: Passing)

Here, I'm just going to look at the passing games. Clearly, the Broncos' passing offense is better. But that doesn't matter. The Seahawks passing defense is better. But that doesn't matter either. This will be a look into the passing game in today's NFL. And we'll see why it's the Seahawks, not the Broncos, who should be wishing the game were played in a dome.

Normally, the offense dictates the passing game. Good quarterbacks put up good numbers. Peyton Manning dominates pretty much everyone. And good defenses get carved up by good quarterbacks. Nowadays, it's just too hard to stop someone who can consistently make the right read and put the ball on the money. Passing games have taken off. So normally, we should be placing much more weight on the Broncos' offensive strength rather than the Seahawks' defensive advantage.

But these Seahawks are different. It's not just how good they are. It's not just that they allow an average passer rating of 63.4 (The Bengals are second, allowing an average passer rating that's more than 10 points higher.). It's that they have transcended the norm. In the Seahawks' case, the first sentence of the second paragraph doesn't hold.

For a typical defense like the Broncos, the correlation between passer rating allowed and opponent's season passer rating is about .6 (I did the exact calculation, going through each game including postseason and looking at the opponent's starting quarterback's passer rating in the specific game and for the whole season, and r=.605.). Since r^2 = .6^2 = .36, this means that 36% of the variation in an opposing QB's passer rating vs. the Broncos can be explained by the variation in his actual season-long passer rating. Most of the rest of the variation can be attributed to luck*. For the Bengals, r^2 was .18: much lower, but still a reasonably significant factor. However, for the Seahawks, that r^2 value was less than .1 (!). They were so good at defense that the success of their opponent's passing game was almost entirely attributable to luck, and only as important as the Seahawks' own defensive skill.

This leads to a least squares regression line for the Seahawks' passer-rating-against of:
RatingAgainst = .874*opponentSeasonRating - 8.187.
For the Broncos, it's:
RatingAgainst = 1.28*opponentSeasonRating - 21.167
For Peyton Manning, we have:
PasserRating = .6024*opponentSeasonRatingAgainst + 58.8
And finally, for Russell Wilson, we have:
PasserRating = 1.535*opponentSeasonRatingAgainst - 34.1

Each of these, respectively, predict passer ratings of:
Peyton Manning rating of 92.42
Russell Wilson rating of 108.41
Peyton Manning rating of 96.99
Russell Wilson rating of 95.66

Manning's average is 94.7, Wilson's is 102. These predictions not only took into account the skills of the offenses and defenses, but how much each depended on the other team's skill. After doing that, we see that it is in fact the Seahawks that have a huge advantage in the passing game, mainly due to a defense that dominates good quarterbacks almost as well as it dominates bad ones. Given how strongly passer rating correlates with winning, this is a good sign for the Seattle Seahawks.

And it makes sense. Normally, a passing attack involves a set of receivers that more talented secondaries will shut down more effectively. The more solid defensive backs a defense has, the fewer receivers that will be open consistently. Similarly, and more importantly, the more stacked a receiving core is (and the more accurate their QB is), the more consistently those receivers will be open enough against overmatched secondaries. There will always be variance, and as I've talked about many times before, way more of it than most people assume, but an overmatched DB is an overmatched DB, and when the probability of some receiver getting open gets close to 1, the variance decreases. Let's look more closely at this. No defense allows less than a 50% completion percentage, so we don't see the variance drop-off from a lower-than-.5 probability of someone getting open (again, open enough. Because the quarterback matters.). If p is the probability that someone gets open enough for a completion, then the variance of completion percentage is attempts*p*(1-p), which clearly gets smaller as completion percentage (p) increases (again, note that in what we're looking at p is always above .5.). So that's one element. But it's not just that. Every quarterback in the NFL can hit an open slant pretty consistently, and every receiver can get open on a slant reasonably often. This will happen against the Seahawks, too. Because some things are just unstoppable (or at least close). What the Seahawks do with their secondary, which is probably the best secondary of all time, is they take away the stuff that's not unstoppable. Which also happens to be the stuff that separates good passing offenses from bad ones. When every offense is reduced to doing something that every offense does pretty well, the good ones don't stand out any more. And this is probably the bigger reason. Getting open deep against Sherman, Maxwell, Thurmond, or Thomas isn't a sign that you're good. It's just a fluke that happens on a blown coverage a couple times a year, irrespective of how good the receiver or quarterback is. And that's why the Seahawks are such a roadblock for good passing games.

*For a typical quarterback, like Andy Dalton (We were talking about the Bengals, and Peyton and Russell are too good to be considered typical), the correlation between passer rating in a given game and that opponent's passer rating allowed (over the season) is about .3 (This was the calculated r value for Dalton. It was only .25 for Manning.), so only about 9% of the variation is due to defense. That's a fourth as much as the variation due to QB against an average defense like the Broncos.

New Playoff Simulation

It's interesting that the two worst teams remaining have been matched up against each other in each of the first two rounds. And it will actually happen again in the next round if the Chargers beat the Broncos. And clearly it will be true for the Super Bowl by virtue of the fact that there are only two teams remaining.

Seahawks
Championship %: 36.1921985
Making Super Bowl %: 56.7616887
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 74.3278182

Broncos
Championship %: 34.5214005
Making Super Bowl %: 66.2177433
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 76.473966

49ers
Championship %: 9.318069399999999
Making Super Bowl %: 18.6722192
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 51.2433869

Panthers
Championship %: 5.3916135
Making Super Bowl %: 13.2613655
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 48.7566131

Saints
Championship %: 5.363147
Making Super Bowl %: 11.304726599999999
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 25.6721818

Chargers
Championship %: 4.1272912
Making Super Bowl %: 12.2613634
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 23.526034000000003

Patriots
Championship %: 3.4121841
Making Super Bowl %: 13.820838599999998
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 60.9514125

Colts
Championship %: 1.6740958
Making Super Bowl %: 7.7000547
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 39.0485875