Let's actually get into some details now. The Seahawks offense is one of the best in the league despite their scoring totals because they run. A lot. And really well. And that's not gonna manifest itself on the scoreboard because a lot of (successful) running means long drives and few drives. And that's what's going to happen in the Superbowl. The Seahawks are going to run. And then they're gonna run some more. Because that's what they've been doing all season. And by all season I mean the past few seasons with the exception of Percy Harvin's healthy games.
And it's gonna work. The Patriots are probably the only team in the NFL that Bevell's play-calling is good against. But against a team that's that good against the pass and that bad at stopping consistent gains on the ground, it actually might be the right strategy. And that's going to be the difference between the reality and the predictions. The Seahawks' offense, which is rarely given credit for being the borderline top 5 unit that it is, will be able to prove its worth in the Superbowl. Enough so that it will take an incredible effort on the other side of the ball for the Patriots to stay in the game.
But on that side of the ball, things are less clear. The Patriots throw a lot of short passes, and the Seahawks aren't particularly good at stopping those, even with a healthy secondary. And I for one have no clue how much the injuries to Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor are going to affect them. But it might not matter much. Because the Patriots won't test them very much. They'll just keep throwing underneath. Now, the Patriots strategy of throwing underneath seems like this consistent way to score every drive, especially considering the point totals New England put up this year. But really, Tom Brady only completed 64% of his passes. Reasonable, but nothing special. It puts him 14th in the league. Which isn't that great considering how short the throws are. He's 21st in yards per attempt. The truth of the matter is that the Patriots aren't actually the machine we think of them as, with the unstoppable Tom Brady methodically moving down the field gaining 10 yards every play.
They're just an offense that calls the right plays (like passes on 2nd and long) and doesn't have bad ones (like sacks). What beats them is a dominant pass rush. Coverage doesn't matter because they get open with scheme (and size, in the case of Gronk). This is what differentiates them from the rest of the league. If you don't get to Brady, the Patriots will keep putting him in good situations until he beats you.
And I don't know how much the Seahawks pass rush is going to find. This is the biggest difference between last year's Seahawks and this year's. They just aren't getting as much pressure with the front 4. But the Pats' line has weaknesses. And the Seahawks are just going to need to put Michael Bennett in places where he can exploit those weaknesses. Which is easier said than done.
Overall though, there's a lot more question about how consistently the Patriots offense will be able to move the ball in this game. This could be a game where there aren't too many drives, since the Seahawks will take a long time on each of theirs. And fewer drives means more chance for a couple lucky plays to swing the game. This game could be low scoring despite the dominance of Seattle's offense, opening the door for a lucky break to bring the Patriots right back into the mix. Or it could end up like the Seahawks-Giants game this season, where the Seahawks run the ball 45 times for 350 yards and completely pull away. I'll put my pick in the middle of these extremes:
Seahawks 27, Patriots 17
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