Tuesday, October 29, 2013

NFL Power Rankings Week 8

Some big changes at the top. Here we go:

1. Green Bay Packers

In a week of impressive wins for the top (4) teams, the Packers didn't need to rely on 5 opponent turnovers like the Broncos did. There offense is just having their way with every single team they play, and their defense has stepped up as well.

2. Denver Broncos

They broke away at the end with a 31-0 4th quarter, but this team just doesn't feel like the juggernaut it was at the beginning of the season. Still incredibly good though.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals putting up that kind of win against one of the better defenses in the NFL is one of the best games that any team has played this season. Offensively and defensively, this team now feels like it's right in the superbowl mix.

4. San Francisco 49ers

Another great win, but it's all relative. Sure they jump the Seahawks, but dominating the Jags is just not on the level of what the Bengals did (although, again, pretty much nothing is). It's still impressive though. They've significantly narrowed the once-wide gap between them and the top of the league.

5. Seattle Seahawks

They slip, and they should. The performance on both lines was atrocious. This was a just a really bad game for the Seahawks, but luckily, they're getting healthy soon enough to combat the issues that killed them against the awful Rams. And there's a lot of variance in the NFL. One terrible game isn't cause to give up on a team that has otherwise proven itself to be one of the elite teams in the league, especially given the dearth of good teams to take their place in the top 5. According to my algorithm, only the Bengals, 49ers, and Seahawks boast both top 10 offenses and defenses.

6. Philadelphia Eagles

What was once extraordinary has turned to shit under a quarterback catastrophe. However, my algorithm weights earlier games the same as recent ones, and those were some amazing offensive performances. They need Vick to get healthy, and they need it fast. Luckily for them, they're still only a game out of first in the division.

7. New York Giants

They're making their move, and they're looking good. In the same fortunate divisional circumstances as the Eagles, this formerly 0-6 team could find itself right in the playoff mix pretty soon. The defense is actually really, really, really good.

8. San Diego Chargers

Bye. Or should I say, SEE-YA! ...to opposing defenses. Because Rivers is pretty unstoppable.

9. Houston Texans

They've had a lot of bad luck this season, but they really aren't such a bad team. The passing game needs work, but the Texans can run the ball with the best of them, and they still have the best player in the world, although it's closer now than it's been in a while (see #13).

10. New Orleans Saints

This team is pretty much the same as the Chargers. They can put up a lot of points by passing the ball a lot of times, and usually that can overcome a suspect defense.

11. Carolina Panthers

This is a team that has looked really good for a while now. They aren't spectacular enough at anything to warrant a top 10 ranking, but everything has been clicking against the weaker opponents they've played recently.

12. Cleveland Browns

For a completely defense-based team, the offense played pretty well against the Chiefs on Sunday to go along with the 6 sacks by the D. Just like most teams that have played the incredibly lucky Chiefs, the Browns easily played well enough to win.

13. Detroit Lions

Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson. WHAT??!!!?!??! He outgained the entire Cowboys' offense! By a lot! That was the best game any player has had all season, and he didn't have to throw for more touchdowns than any quarterback since the merger (see Denver Broncos, week 1). This one player makes an otherwise pretty awful team competitive.

14. Oakland Raiders

They're 3-4. They've been an average team all year. And still nobody has noticed that they're not the bottom feeders they were expected to be. They're about to be ranked TEN FUCKING SPOTS ABOVE AN EIGHT AND OH TEAM! The Raiders!

15. Chicago Bears

Their offense has been really good. Has been. Their defense has not. And without their starting quarterback, I'm not so sure they'll be able to keep up anymore. But they're 4-3, they had a well-timed bye week, and Jay Cutler should be coming back in a few weeks. Whether or not they can win a game in his absence? Still up in the air.

16. Arizona Cardinals

Beating up on a bad Falcons team! Good for them. The defense is really good.

17. New York Jets

That was really bad. REALLY BAD. They beat the Patriots one week, and then they lose by 40 the next. The high-variance-in-football-should-make-us-forgive-bad-games principle only applies to reasonably close games. This was not one of those. But hey, a team could do a lot worse than 17th (See #24).

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

It's the Steelers. What do we expect? hmmm... Oh right, exactly what we get. A mediocre-at-best offense and a fringe top-10 defense. That's why they're at 18, and the Raiders are at 14. They don't do anything remotely special.

19. Indianapolis Colts

Now that Luck has evened out for a lot of teams, I think we need to do a new ranking of the Luckiest teams in football. And the Colts fall in at #2. They don't pass the ball that well, they don't play defense that well, and the guy they traded a first round pick for doesn't run the ball well (Everybody else on the team, on the other hand, seems to run it pretty well). The NFL has enough parity that mediocre teams can win a lot without being that Lucky though. That's why they aren't the team that's had the most Luck. Or even close, for that matter. Their Luck doesn't Angerer me the way the Chief's Luck does. In other news, Colts players have fun names.

20. Washington Redskins

Just when it looked like they had finally turned the corner, the 4th quarter happened. And it happened hard. It's like they were just about to solve the Rubix Cube, and then BAM! We all know what happened next. Shit. Everywhere.

21. Tennessee Titans

Remember the Bills a few weeks ago? When they were just a mediocre offense and defense? Before things got a lot worse? That's the Titans now. Hopefully Locker can get them out of the pit. They have an easy stretch coming up in their schedule.

22. Minnesota Vikings

For all that their defense got killed, they played pretty well on the other side of the ball. And they were playing the best team in the league.

23. Baltimore Ravens

There's just nothing interesting to say about them during a bye.

24. Kansas City Chiefs

This is the luckiest team in the NFL. It's not like they're way worse than everybody else: They're not. The difference between the 24th best team and the 6th best team isn't that big (I chose 6th because there is a huge gap between 5th and 6th, almost as big as that between the Chiefs and Eagles. The difference between the Chiefs and the Seahawks IS really big). But they are worse than most other teams. And they have beaten every team they've played. That takes some fucking crazy luck. And it pisses me off.

25. Dallas Cowboys

The offense wasn't good, but it wasn't bad. Romo played pretty poorly, especially against a weak Lions defense. That happens though. But there are some things that don't happen. Like receivers getting 329 yards in an NFL game. I get that he's 6-5, 240 with a 6-10 wingspan, 43 inch vertical, and 4.35 40. I get that those physical tools are way better than anyone else he's going up against (or any other receiver [ever], for that matter). But 329 yards is too much. Way too much. And this isn't the first time the Cowboys defense has been torched this season.

26. New England Patriots

They're just not good. 100 yards passing, a much worse defense due to injuries, only winning against other awful teams. If Gronk can't save them, no one can. They're done. Although it's still looking like they'll win the division, somehow.

27. Buffalo Bills

More like Biffalo Bullshit, am I right? The AFC East is the worst division in football. The Bills are 1 spot away from being the second best team in it.

28. Miami Dolphins

Remember when they were 3-0 and they weren't that good? Now they're 3-4 and not that good.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They've supplanted the Browns for the title of worst offense in the NFL (surprisingly, the Jags have avoided it for a few weeks now). But the defense is average, so they could potentially hang in games, which they've done. Winning them is another question.

30. Atlanta Falcons

Firstly, this is the worst defense in the NFL. By a lot. Secondly, are they going to set a record for pass/run ratio this season? They've decided (smartly, I might add) that if they can't gain 2 yards per carry (which often happens), they might as well drop back to pass 65 times a game (which just happened). But with that defense, their receiving corps is just too injured to keep up.

31. St. Louis Rams

Out of the cellar! They put on a great performance against the Seahawks last night, but as I mentioned before, one game doesn't mean that much. This has been a really bad team the rest of the season.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars

Back where they (might) belong. The offensive resurgence led by Justin Blackmon didn't last long, and now it looks like they have to worry about 0-16 again. The defense is really bad, too, in case you were wondering.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

NFL Power Rankings Week 7

Forgot about it for a couple days, but here's the list (as of the end of week 7):

1. Denver Broncos

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Seattle Seahawks

4. San Francisco 49ers

5. Cincinnati Bengals

6. Philadelphia Eagles

7. New York Jets

8. San Diego Chargers

9. Houston Texans

10. New York Giants

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

12. Carolina Panthers

13. Dallas Cowboys

14. Cleveland Browns

15. Oakland Raiders

16. Indianapolis Colts

17. Tennessee Titans

18. Kansas City Chiefs

19. Chicago Bears

20. Washington Redskins

21. New Orleans Saints

22. Baltimore Ravens

23. Atlanta Falcons

24. New England Patriots

25. Arizona Cardinals

26. Minnesota Vikings

27. Buffalo Bills

28. Miami Dolphins

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

30. Detroit Lions

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

32. St. Louis Rams

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

NFL Power Rankings Week 6

1. Denver Broncos

Not a good game Sunday, but they'll be getting Von Miller back, and Peyton plays like he did in weeks 1-5 a lot more often than he plays like he did week 6 (surprisingly, 5 times more often this year).

2. Green Bay Packers

The running game has come alive this season. They shouldn't be allowing the Ravens to come within 2 points of them though.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

It's like everybody Chip sticks at QB turns into Joe Montana. Too bad they don't have Ronnie Lott on D.

4. Seattle Seahawks

Pretty unlucky for the second game in a row: They played at a level where they should have won by at least 3 scores. But their offense just hasn't been on the level of the teams above them this season.

5. San Francisco 49ers

This is a good team. They still have one of the best defenses and offensive lines in the NFL, even if they're not the all-time great units they were last season.

6. New York Jets

They looked bad against the Steelers, but that defense still is going to keep the Jets in games all season.

7. Cincinnati Bengals

They actually feel a lot like the Jets. Mediocre offense that can still make some plays at times, and a really good defense that looked worse than it really is.

8. Houston Texans

This is the second unluckiest team in the NFL. They played well enough to beat the Rams on Sunday, and they just had everything go wrong. The pass protection has to improve though. And something feels weird with JJ Watt. No tackles for the best player in the world? Then again, the Rams didn't play much offense on Sunday. Just a bunch of big returns.

9. Carolina Panthers

The quarterback was amazing. Good for him. This team cam still win the division.

10. San Diego Chargers

We all got to see this pretty good team beat the average Colts. on Monday night. If their offense had played on the level it had played at all season, the game might have been a lot uglier.

11. New York Giants

Yet another game of dominating the opposition only to let a few fluke plays turn the game in the other direction. The fluke plays will regress to the mean, or at least close to it.

12. Cleveland Browns

They had this game. They really should have won it. They played a lot better, especially on the ground. But they're the Browns. Shit happens. Especially in the front seat of Petey's car.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers

Props to them for finally winning a game. They deserved to win this one too, against a pretty good opponent, at least defensively. Ben Fuckfuckfuckfuck outplayed Geno by quite a bit.

14. Washington Redskins

Huh? Didn't expect that. But their game was a lot like the Browns' game. They looked better than the Cowboys on Sunday (even gaining 216 yards rushing), but just some turnovers and special teams plays killed them.

15. Oakland Raiders

They turned the ball over too much, but they held Kansas City to 105 yards passing. This team is a lot better than they get credit for.

16. Indianapolis Colts

They did a surprisingly good job defensively against a really good Chargers offense, but the fact is that the Colts really are just an average team.

17. Tennessee Titans

They were bad and really lucky on Sunday. Not lucky enough. They need their hurt Locker to come back.

18. Kansas City Chiefs

They don't deserve to be perfect by any means, nor to have won more than 3 games, but I will give credit where credit is due. The defense is probably a top 10 unit. And the offense is bottom 5. They won't keep up this charade for long.

19. New Orleans Saints

For most of that game, they played amazingly against the Pats. Amazingly enough that they shouldn't have had to deal with the final drive. But they did, and they blew it. The D is not good.

20. Baltimore Ravens

Good job for them playing the Packers so close. But this just isn't a good offense without Joe Flacco going ham like he did for a few games last year that happened to be at just the right time.

21. Chicago Bears

The Bears are who we thought they were. Well, not really. They've almost turned into an offensive juggernaut. And a defense that, just like last year, has made a lot of big plays and will regress in the second half of the season.

22. Arizona Cardinals

They really weren't so bad against a good 49ers team. Cut down on the turnovers and they could have even won.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Newton cam to Minnesota and just dominated. AD was actually pretty good though. But he only got 10 carries.

24. Dallas Cowboys

They got gashed by the Redskins. That defense is bad. Tony Romo is the only thing holding this team together, but he's done a good enough job for 1st place in the division.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why do they even exist? I shouldn't say that. They actually did a better job against the Eagle's run game than everybody else. Part of that is Vick's absence though. Glennon wasn't great, but he brought a spark to the passing game they hadn't seen all year.

26. Buffalo Bills

See last week entry. I actually just don't care to talk about them. I mean, they're from Buffalo. Buffalo?

27. New England Patriots

Yes, 27th. They were bad against a bad Saints team, what can I say? I don't care if the two teams have 2 losses between them or that the Patriots have Tom Brady. They did an awful job protecting him and an awful job catching his passes for most of the game. And they don't stop the run very well without Wilfork either.

28. Detroit Lions

Worse teams win. Better teams lose. They were better last year. Just a lot unluckier.

29. Miami Dolphins

See #28

30. Atlanta Falcons

The only way they don't get gashed is by taking the week off. Worst defense in the NFL.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

Justin Blackmon has completely revitalized the offense. The defense isn't even looking that bad. Wouldn't it be awesome if they went on a run and won the divsion?

32. St. Louis Rams

You can't trick the algorithm, St. Louis. It knows you still suck.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

NFL Power Rankings Week 5

1. Denver Broncos

The first time they were tested all season. The defense looked like it could really use some help. That help being Von Miller. The Broncos are still worlds better than any other team in football (and JJ Watt is the best football player in all those worlds. Too bad he doesn't play quarterback).

2. Green Bay Packers

Moving up in the world. The offense has been great all season, but this week the defense stepped up. Hence the step up in the rankings.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

I'm going to say this almost as much as I say that JJ Watt is the best player in the world: I believe in Chip Kelly. This team kinda feels like last year's Redskins. At any moment they could just stop losing (until something catastrophic happens: probably against the Seahawks).

4. Seattle Seahawks

Well they finally lost, but unlike the Patriots, they actually played well and had a lot of breaks go the Colts way. Not well enough to keep their spot safe from the suddenly not-awful Packers defense, but they were definitely still the better team on Sunday.

5. New York Jets

They're good. I wouldn't be that surprised to see them take the AFC East, especially given the Patriots inability to score any touchdowns (which is weird, because just hearing about struggling to score makes me think of the Jets).

6. San Francisco 49ers

Don't worry, they were never that bad. Just a little hiccup. And a not-so-great quarterback. And an amazing defense.

7.  Houston Texans

Don't worry, they aren't that bad. Just a little hiccup. And a not-so-great quarterback. And an amazing defense.

8. San Diego Chargers

Don't worry, they aren't that bad. Just a little hiccup. And a not-so-great defense. And an amazing quarterback.

9. Cincinnati Bengals

SEE-YA Patriots offense! The Bengals just did to the Patriots what the Browns did to the Bengals...

10. Cleveland Browns

Perhaps the defense in the NFL. For real. And every once in while, they can score, too.

11. New York Giants

The unluckiest team in the NFL so far. Yet they're closer to the division lead than the Falcons. Funny how it all works out. Well, not really funny, but you know what I mean. Or maybe you don't.

12. Tennessee Titans

Jake Locker. That defense. Nah, never mind. Ryan Fitzpatrick. Mediocrity. They looked about as good as the Chiefs (who are the luckiest team in the NFL. And who have worse odds to win the division than the Redskins) on Sunday. Which is a very bad thing.

13. Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo just had one of the best games in NFL history. He has carried an awful team to a division lead (a REALLY awful team. and a REALLY unimpressive division lead). For that team to be able to play with one of the best teams in the history of the NFL is a miracle. Or should I say, a miROMOcle. No, I probably shouldn't.

14. Carolina Panthers

They still have a good D and run game. And Cam isn't bad either. They just need to give him a little better protection. Fine, a LOT better protection. 7 sacks isn't ok.

15. Baltimore Ravens

I don't know what to think of this team. Last year, it seemed, especially in the playoffs, that they had become an offensive football team. Now their offense sucks, and it's their defense that's carrying them. We'll see how it turns out. But right now, they're just another middle of the pack team.

16. Pittsburg Steelers

They've been mediocre, don't get me wrong, but this football team isn't 0-5 bad. I mean, they're better than the 5-0 chiefs. And Saints. I don't see them in the running for a top pick. Other teams will fall faster than them.

17. Indianapolis Colts

They won, but it took a blocked field goal return for a touchdown, a bad pass interference call on seemingly every drive, and a whole lot of other flukey plays to do it. On the other hand, they did make Russell Wilson look pretty bad throwing the ball. Running? Different story. That run defense is really bad. They allowed two 100 yard rushers on Sunday (RW was one of them).

18. Oakland Raiders

I don't know why they don't suck. How a team of backups can be reasonably mediocre. I guess it's just Pryor being way better than Gabbert. That's a running quarterback who just went 18 for 23. I'm impressed.

19. Minnesota Vikings

I was in Minnesota, but I missed them. It's almost as if they didn't play. I really want to see Cassel again.

20. Chicago Bears

Cutler played so well. They were so much better than the Saints on Sunday. Even the defense looked good. I don't care about the loss, this was their best game all season.

21. Buffalo Bills

Mediocre offense, mediocre defense, 2-3. Sounds about right. They can run the ball though. And sometimes pass it when EJ is healthy.

22. Kansas City Chiefs

Their offense is bad, their defense is ok, but they just keep winning. That's just the luck of football though. They'll regress.

23. New England Patriots

More like New England Tom Brady Sucks, am I right? That offense is atrocious. Their D is pretty good though. Although it's just not the same without Wilfork.

24. Washington Redskins

Their offense really isn't bad, although it could be so much better with a healthier Robert. It couldn't do anything on Sunday. Mainly because they weren't playing. But still.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You know, sometimes your offense just isn't good enough. Top 10 D though. Maybe something good will happen for them.

26. New Orleans Saints

They were awful against the Bears. Sometimes points don't tell the whole story, and this year, for the Saints defense, they don't. It's still bad. Really bad. Not historically bad like last year, but one of the worst in the league. I still consider the Chiefs luckier to be 5-0, just because it's easier to beat better teams with a good offense (which the Saints do have), but the Saints are pretty lucky too. I'm not even convinced they'll beat out the Panthers in the division.

27. Detroit Lions

They got destroyed on Sunday. The score didn't tell the whole story. They didn't belong on the same field as the Packers.

28. Arizona Cardinals

7 sacks is impressive, but it might have just been a fluke. They only had 7 all season going into the game. And that offense really isn't good.

29. Miami Dolphins

I don't know why I should talk about this team. I'm going to stop. Maybe for a while.

30. Atlanta Falcons

The defense is really, really, really bad. Julio Jones could be done for the season. Without him their offense could still be good, but not even top 10. And this looks like a team that's going to need to score a lot of points to keep pace with whoever gets to play their defense.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

They turned the ball over a few times, and that was what cost them. But for the most part, they actually outplayed the Rams. That doesn't prevent them from 0-16 though.

32. St. Louis Rams

The Rams have one of the worst offenses and defenses in the league. They should not be 2-3. They might end up 3-13 if they're lucky. Which they have been so far.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

NFL Power Rankings Week 4

I'm late. Whoops. Here they are anyway from after week 4.

1. Broncos

2. Eagles

3. Seahawks

4. Jets

5. Texans

JJ Watt is the best player in the world. Just had to say that.

6. Packers

7. 49ers

8. Chargers

9. Browns

10. Saints

11. Titans

12. Bengals

13. Patriots

14. Giants

15. Panthers

16. Colts

17. Ravens

18. Bills

19. Buccaneers

20. Lions

21. Raiders

22. Vikings

23. Cardinals

24. Redskins

25. Steelers

26. Chiefs

27. Falcons

28. Dolphins

29. Cowboys

30. Bears

31. Jaguars

32. Dolphins