Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Superbowl Preview

I haven't posted on here in a while, so I figure I might as well come back for the Super Bowl. Because it's an easy one. Here's all you need to know: The Seahawks have a significantly better offense than the Patriots. Yes, I said offense. In fact, it isn't close. The difference between the Seahawks' offense and Patriots' offense is bigger than the difference between the Patriots' offense and that of the Browns or Titans. Would you give the Titans a shot against the Patriots? No? Good. So why the fuck are we giving the Patriots a shot in this game? They're going up against the devil himself. They won't come within 73 points.

Monday, December 22, 2014

2014 NFL Power Rankings Weeks 14-16

I'm not going to spell anything out this week. Just some charts:























The order on the right hand side is the power rankings for week 16. And as we can see, the league has been the Broncos and then everybody else for a while now. But the Seahawks have finally entered that conversation. And no one else.

Now we get to the defensive chart (based on defensive rank - lower is better):


And offense:



Thursday, December 4, 2014

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 13

1. Denver Broncos

Dominant defensive performance, but an off-week for Peyton Manning and the offense, combined with a huge output from the Colts, have pushed the Broncos off from their 1st in O/1st in D pinnacle. Their overall ranking is still 3.14 standard deviations above league average, however. They aren't losing the #1 overall rank anytime soon. So anytime this season.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Still comfortable at #2, and the defense is starting to look better now that it's getting healthier. They could still win the conference.

3. Indianapolis Colts

They dominated a Redskins team that isn't actually so bad. They're no Broncos, they don't have the defense, but they could make a run. A short run.

4. Green Bay Packers

Similar team to the Colts. Great offense, pretty bad defense. I don't think Aaron Rodgers gets enough credit for convincing the media they're a reasonable team on that side of the ball. My rankings have them at 25. That's worse than the Raiders and the Titans. But still 4th overall, thanks to a(n almost) complete lack of good teams this year.

5. Baltimore Ravens

It's Ngata good sign when you lose your best (?) player for the last 4 weeks of the season in the middle of a tight race for a wild card spot.

6. San Diego Chargers

They probably don't get enough rain in San Diego to Phillip Rivers. Ok, that was bad, but Weddle you do about it? I mean Watt will you do about it (Oh, you don't know Watt Watt I'm talking about. Obviously the Chargers' guard Chris Watt).  Now the Rivers one doesn't seem so bad, does it?

7. New England Patriots
8. Detroit Lions
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Philadelphia Cream Cheese
12. Houston Texans

JJ Watt had probably his third best game of the season. And possibly the third greatest game in NFL history.

13. Miami Dolphins

You just gave up 277 rushing yards to the Jets. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

You just lost to the fucking Saints. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

15. San Francisco 49ers

You can't play offense. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

16. Dallas Cowboys

You can't play defense. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

17. Cleveland Browns

You tried to solve your offensive woes by putting in a quarterback you drafted because of a homeless guy. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

18. New Orleans Saints

You're even worse at defense than the Cowboys. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

19. Tennessee Titans

You just allowed 6 TDs to Ryan Fitzpatrick. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

20. Kansas City Chiefs

You're in the same division as the Broncos. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

21. Arizona Cardinals

See, 9ers, San Francisco 4. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

22. Washington Redskins

See Cowboys, Dallas. I'm also running out of problems to mention. THAT'S A PROBLEM. UH OH.

23. Chicago Bears

See Redskins, Washington. Except you don't have a good number like them. You have a shitty number. But maybe your city won't mind.

24. St. Louis Rams

You just lost 52-0 to the Raiders. THAT'S A PROBLEM. Whoops, I got the game backwards. THAT'S NOT A PROBLEM. You're still hopeless. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

25. New York Jets

You can't pass the ball. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

26-32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, New York Giants

THAT'S A PROBLEM.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 12

Ok, I'm back.

1. Denver Broncos

Still the best offense and defense in the league. Still 3.3 standard deviations above the mean. A couple fluke losses don't mean much. This is the best team in the league, and it's not close.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is the best running quarterback (at running) since Michael Vick. He's currently 40 yards away from being top 10 in the league in rushing. The defense isn't where it was last year, with the pass rush falling off the map, but it's still top 5.

3. New England Patriots

Yup, they've moved up. Gronk is the second best football player in the world. Or something like that. Although he really shouldn't get all the credit. A terrible offensive line early on has just started playing way better. Maybe that's all Gronk, but it's not. For comparison's sake, this team has about the 10th best offense and 10th best defense in the league. Yet they're the 3rd best team. This is how mediocre the NFL is this year. Except the Broncos.

4. Baltimore Ravens

Another team that's just pretty solid. Just In Four Set is balling out.

5. Indianapolis Colts

Tea Why Hill Ton is also balling out.

6. Miami Dolphins

Wow. Another big jump. Camera In Way K is also balling out. I'm gonna stop now.

7. San Diego Chargers
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Washington Redskins
12. Buffalo Bills
13. Cincinnati Bengals
14. San Francisco 49ers
15. Arizona Cardinals
16. Philadelphia Eagles
17. Detroit Lions
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Kansas City Chiefs
20. Houston Texans
21. Cleveland Browns
22. Chicago Bears
23. New Orleans Saints (Finally got to the NFC South!)
24. New York Jets
25. Oakland Raiders
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. St. Louis Rams
28. Minnesota Vikings
29. Carolina Panthers
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. New York Giants


Monday, October 27, 2014

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 8

I'm back. And on a Wednesday, in a cafe, you watched it begin again. At least I assume all y'all'll read this on a Wednesday in a cafe.

1.  Denver Broncos

Holy shit. This team is the best in the league. It's not close. The Broncos are 3.32 standard deviations above the mean. The Seahawks are 1.17 standard deviations above the mean. The Broncos have the number 1 offense AND defense in the league. Nobody can touch this team. I mean, the Seahawks beat them, but everyone loses at some point. The Seahawks were good last year. REALLY good. And they were less than 2 and a half standard deviations above the mean. The Broncos could be the best team of all time.

2. Seattle Seahawks

It might be ugly, but it's been ugly for everyone. Except the Broncos. And it's not like the Seahawks are a dominant 2nd in the league. They are only 1.17 SDs above the mean, after all. The NFL this year is just the Broncos and everybody else. But the top teams in each conference are the same. It's very possible that the Superbowl will be a rematch and the people who ignore football for longer stretches than I do won't realize that everything has changed.

3. Washington Redskins

Too bad I didn't publish my rankings last week with the Redskins here so everybody could see this blog call the shit out of the MNF game. This team might be 3-5, but they're good. Again, it's ugly for everybody; all the non-Broncos games this year are mainly decided by luck. Andrew Luck. Just kidding.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of which... Andrew Luck is finally good. I'll admit, I wish he would've stayed bad. The Colts have a top 5 offense. Maybe top 3. And the defense is wildly inconsistent. As in one of the top 5 defensive performances of the season against the Bengals followed by a bottom 5 performance against the Steelers. Conclusion: they're probably average. Unlike the Broncos.

5. San Diego Chargers

No shame in losing to the Broncos. The Chiefs on the other hand... no clue how they lost that. I mean, I almost do. Luck. Not Andrew. But maybe something else. Maybe they're just not as elite as we thought. Because no one is. Except the Broncos. But the Broncos don't count.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

They got shat on by Indianapolis. Maybe this is the year when everyone gets shat on by everybody else. Except the Broncos. And this won't be the last time I mention them.

7. San Francisco 49ers

Bye. See-ya. See-ya everybody who isn't the Broncos that is. I'm sure the 9ers remember their last game all too well.

8. Baltimore Ravens

They lost a close one to the Bengals, but they're a pretty good team. Then again, a lot of teams are pretty good. Or pretty ok. This season looks pretty treacherous for EVERYONE who isn't Denver.

9. Green Bay Packers

Rodgers had a good run. And by good run, I mean fucking amazing run. But it's over. And he's not doing it again. Like, ever. Nobody is. For a long time. Except maybe Peyton Manning. Because he does things like that. I mean, he hasn't, but he's done similar things.

10. Houston Texans

JJ Watt might be having the 3 best seasons of all time. Not the best 3 season stretch. The best season, the second best season, and the third best season. And now it's time for them to start winning. To take their rightful title as the best team in the state. Exclusively because of JJ Watt. As an aside, I'd like to compare the Texans and Broncos. The Broncos have the most valuable player in the league, because Peyton's a QB. They also might have the best roster in the league ignoring the quarterback position. That's why they're 1, and the Texans are 10. Ok, I didn't really want to do that much comparing.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

Wow, that was a great game by Fuckfuckfuckfuck. Good for them blowing out the number 4 team in the league. Not that 4 is much different from anything other than 1. As I said before, this season everybody shits on everybody. Except the Broncos. The Broncos are not the front seat of Petey's car.

12. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's pretty good. It's like starlight. People in real cities don't realize it's there. But it is, and every once in a while you notice it. On this scale, the Broncos are sunlight.

13. Dallas Cowboys

Losing to the Skins might have been sad. Tragic even. But it was beautiful to see the right team win. Maybe everything is right in the NFL. And by the NFL I mean the regular NFL and the Broncos. Because the Broncos are really in a different league right now.

14. Detroit Lions

Their offense goes from borderline top 5 to borderline bottom 5 when Calvin Johnson disappears. But either way, the defense is elite. With a healthy CJ, this might be the best team in the NFC. That's what a top 5 offense and defense means. But wait, there's trouble. They have to compete with a team that has a top ONE offense and defense. That's just not fair.

15. Tennessee Titans

Still top half! At 2-6. Maybe they're unlucky. Maybe. Although right now, the Broncos might be the unluckiest team in the league. They're that good. Alright, probably not, losing to #2 on the road in overtime is just tough. They weren't really unlucky that game.

16. Miami Dolphins

Do you realize how good the Broncos are? Looking at this entry was the moment I knew the Broncos would be more interesting than every other team combined.

17. Kansas City Chiefs

They have a winning record now, and shockingly, they aren't just winning at home. They even played the Broncos close. I mean, the score was close, the game really wasn't. But the Broncos are really really good, so it's ok.

18. Philadelphia Eagles

They're gonna be here when every game is a comeback. They just aren't convincingly good. Maybe when Evan Mathis is healthy. He might be the second best player in the NFL. Probably not, but top 10. Kinda like what the Broncos are in offense AND defense. Oh wait, that's top ONE.

19. 89 Intermission

No. Just no. That's for the New England Patriots, who are in this spot and get skipped over for the intermission. Now back to 1989. No. Just no. It's not hannenin. 1989 compared to Red is like any team in the NFL compared to the Broncos. And that's Red. Compared to Speak now it's like the '76 Bucs compared to the Broncos. Speaking of the Bucs, guess who's the worst team in the NFL this year. Yeah I'm done. Peace. Long Live Long Live and the Taylor Swift of years past.

20. New Orleans Saints
21. Arizona Cardinals
22. New York Jets
23. Cleveland Browns
24. Jacksonville Jaguars
25. Minnesota Vikings
26. Chicago Bears
27. Atlanta Falcons
28. Carolina Panthers
29. Oakland Raiders
30. New York Giants
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Wednesday, October 8, 2014

2014 NFL Power Rankings Week 5

1. Denver Broncos

Surprise number 1. But they just won by 21 against the previously perfect Cardinals, so it's very deserved.

2. Seattle Seahawks

They're really good. This has been true for a lot of weeks. And will be true for at least that many more years. Terrible luck with penalties against Washington kept them out of first since my algorithm doesn't count plays that don't officially happen (like Percy Harvin's 3 TDs).

3. Cincinnati Bengals

The lopsided score was due to luck: the Patriots recovering all 4 fumbles in the game 3 of which were by the Bengals, 0/7 on 3rd down and 0/1 on 4th, etc. But the Bengals didn't outplay the Pats apart from the lucky parts. This is the Pats. If you're an elite team, you should dominate them.

4. San Diego Chargers

They look REALLY good. REALLY REALLY good. Rivers looks like an MVP.

5. Detroit Lions

Still top 5. But they seem to need Calvin Johnson healthy. What a surprise, a 6'5'' receiver with 4.35 speed and a 43" vertical (who is also just really good) is an important component of the Lions' success.

6. San Francisco 49ers

They're good. Fine. They just don't look it. But they belong here.

7. Green Bay Packers

They pooped on the Vikings.

8. Washington Redskins

Probably helped a bit in the rankings by the Percy Harvin TDs getting called back. Also by Desean Jackson being really fast.

9. Buffalo Bills

Great win.

10. Arizona Cardinals

Shitty loss. But it's Denver, they're good, and the Cards stayed in it for a while.

11. Tennessee Titans

Are you from Tennessee? Because HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ELEVENTH?

12. Miami Dolphins

Hm.

13. Baltimore Ravens
14. Indianapolis Colts

Both teams played a lot of bad offense. The Colts just played a little more good offense.

15. Houston Texans

WATT

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

No.

17. Atlanta Falcons

It really wasn't that bad.

18. New York Jets

It was that bad. But the Chargers have been doing this to everyone. Basically. The defense is good, it's just that Rivers can beat good defenses.

19. New Orleans Saints

It might be that bad.

20. Philadelphia Eagles

For a team that was ranked 2nd last year and is 4-1 this year, they're ranked really low by an algorithm that incorporates last season. They need Evan Mathis healthy. Badly. Like the Lions need CJ.

21. Kansas City Chiefs

Why?

22. New England Patriots

I don't know about you, but I'm still not sold. More than a week ago, but that's not saying much.

23. Dallas Cowboys

They might be winning, and dominating on offense while doing so, but the other side of the ball isn't going to keep keeping up.

24. Cleveland Browns

Good thing Homeless Guy didn't ask for Johnny to start.

25. New York Giants

They got lucky. Next.

26. Minnesota Vikings

They need Teddy like the Lions need CJ and the Eagles need Mathis.

27. Chicago Bears
28. Carolina Panthers

Close game between two teams that are both a lot worse than people think they are.

29. St. Louis Rams

I BELIEVE IN AUSTIN DAVIS. EVEN MORE THAN BEFORE (but still slightly less than Teddy).

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ok, I'm done.

31. Oakland Raiders

32. Jacksonville Jaguars