1. Seattle Seahawks
At this point, it's not close. The Seahawks are first by a bigger margin than anybody this season other than the Broncos at the very beginning. But here, we've seen 11 games. There's a lot less variance. This is the best team in football.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
That offense with Nick Foles at the helm is unstoppable. And speaking of not getting stops, the Eagles' defense, but this team feels like the Redskins last year. They're just going to keep winning. Until they play the Seahawks in the playoffs.
3. Denver Broncos
That was Peyton's worst game in years. I don't care about the comeback, that was just a matter of when each team had bad enough luck to cough up the ball repeatedly. But Manning wasn't hitting anyone. It was ugly. For a quarterback who didn't have less than 7 yards per attempt in any game all season (for reference, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck are averaging 6.7 on the year (ok, those guys are 27th and 28th in the league, respectively, but still)), throwing for 4.2 ypa is atrocious. One-Ring-Peyton has never done that bad. I don't know if it was a product of the cold, or if it was just a fluke of all his bad throws happening in the same game, but this broncos offense looks a lot more mortal than it used to. Despite their running game dominance. Now their defensive woes are relevant again.
4. New Orleans Saints
Their defense has been playing a lot better recently, and while they're still worse than average, they can stop some people. And that's all they need with Drew Brees throwing the ball. I mean, not on Monday, they'll probably get blown out (possibly in the snow), but against any team that's not way better than everybody else in the league, I like their chances.
5. Green Bay Packers
Their defense sucks, but they might not lose once Aaron Rodgers comes back. I still think they'll make the playoffs, and nobody's going to want to play them. Except the Seahawks, but as I mentioned for the Saints, they don't count. On the other hand, they made BY FAR THE WORST 4TH DOWN DECISION I'VE EVER SEEN to completely blow their game against Minnesota. They had 4th and goal from the 2, on the first drive in OT, and they kicked a field goal. Let's look at that. First, consider how bad kicking is in general on that first OT drive with the new rule in place. It's so bad, in fact, that it's been shown to be better to punt from your opponent's 30 on 4th and 20 than to kick (or go for it, because, you know, 4th and 20). It's also so bad to kick from the 2 even not in overtime, the idea behind that being the amazing field position you get even if you don't convert. In the Packers' case, they combined both awful mistakes. It was actually about as good for them to FAIL TO CONVERT ON 4TH than to kick the field goal. I hope that decision costs them a playoff spot.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
After that rant, we can take a more chill team. They're pretty good, not spectacular, and while the injury hurts, it seems like they can hold it together without Geno Atkins. But they don't threaten anyone the way the top 5 do. Or even maybe the next couple teams. It's NFC west time.
7. San Francisco 49ers
They've been on this on-the-verge level all year. They aren't the team they were last year, but they have a pretty good offense and defense, just like the Bengals, and they can do some of the spectacular things the Bengals can't. Then again, they also have the potential to poop the bed more than the Bengals do. Sometimes they can't pass. Like, at all. Like, worse than Peyton's game on Sunday. And multiple times, too.
8. Arizona Cardinals
What can I say, they're good! That is a top 3 defense in the league, maybe top 1. And they just put up a fortyburger on the Colts. Too bad they play in the wrong division.
9. Detroit Lions
There's way too much unpredictability with this team. They're based on just throwing to a wide receiver who is WAY better than anyone else he goes up against. Sometimes, that leads to amazing things. Other times, Stafford just throws 4 picks. Their defense doesn't help things.
10. New York Giants
Remember when they couldn't run the ball at all? They just ran all over the Cowboys. But it still wasn't enough. Kinda like the Broncos' game. That D is still really good though, unlike the Broncos. But, you know, wrong Manning.
11. Carolina Panthers
They've been here for a while now. They looked bad against the Dolphins, which they haven't done for a while now. But they've been an above-average-but-not-great team for a while now. Including last year.
12. Cleveland Browns
Still love their defense! Their offense, on the other hand, has been giving up almost as many points recently.
13. New York Jets
Kinda like the Browns. They do some awful things on O.
14. San Diego Chargers
The opposite. They just gave up almost 40 to a bottom-five offense in the league. Luckily, they can throw. Really well.
15. New England Patriots
I'd say good win, but it wasn't. But good job stopping Peyton. Not so good against the run though. Or running (without fumbling). The passing game is doing a lot better with Gronk and Amendola back.
16. Houston Texans
Just like the Broncos, they had a flukey bad game passing. This team has been unlucky all season (since the first couple games). If this team played the Jags 10 more times, they'd probably win 8 of them. If you just look at wins, of course you won't see a difference between the Jags and Texans. But they're a lot more that happens in football that can demonstrate the difference between a bad loser, like the Jags, and an unlucky loser, like the Texans.
17. Tennessee Titans
Good for you, you beat the Raiders. But it took a +2 turnover differential and a last minute touchdown. Face it, you were the worse team on Sunday. The better team this season, but worse on Sunday. But you won, and I'm glad the better team won.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
This time it took a +4 turnover margin. Count yourselves lucky. Because you sure as hell aren't good.
19. Minnesota Vikings
Great game on the ground on O. On D, not so much. But they were saved by the horrendous 4th down decision, so they could escape with a tie. Ponder has actually been playing reasonably well recently.
20. Oakland Raiders
I don't have anything to say about you. You lost to a team that lost to the fucking Jags. (Just like the Seahawks lost to a team (Colts) that lost to a team (Rams) that lost to a team (Titans) that lost to the Jags. Or lost to a team (Colts) that lost to a team (Chargers) that lost to a team (Texans) that lost to the Jags. It's fun to do that. It's fun watching other people non-jokingly use individual games to argue that one team is better than another. That logic ends up working really well.). Ok, they're not actually that bad. They should have even won that last game. They're just not good either.
21. Baltimore Ravens
Solid win. They have a pretty good D. If they do what they did last year, turing the number 15 offense into the number 1 playoff offense, then this year, they'll be turning the number 29 offense into the number 15 (?) playoff offense... I think it's better to assume they just won't make the playoffs. Maybe a team that can actually score will make the playoffs. Like the Chargers. Because unfortunately, it doesn't look like the 3rd best AFC team will (the Browns, at 12th in the league).
22. Washington Redskins
They did a surprisingly good job against the league's #6 (in yards) running game. That's about all I can say that's good about this team.
23. Buffalo Bills
I couldn't tell the difference between their bye and their actual games.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Their offense has gotten substantially better recently (since Glennon took over). It's not the Broncos', or even the Titans' at this point, but it's better. And with that defense, especially LD (see, because it sounds like LT... Get it?), that's good enough to win some football games.
25. Chicago Bears
The run defense. Other than that, they're actually a pretty good team. Now you see how bad the run D is.
26. Miami Dolphins
Way to almost beat the Panthers. Eerily similar to their score last week. In fact, starting in week 5, the winner of Dolphins games hasn't scored over 27, and the loser hasn't scored under 16. And only one of the margins has been over 4 points. The Dolphins basically just play the same game every week.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Ick. You're supposed to keep it under cover how bad you are. That's the second awful blowout you've had. As I've said before, good teams lose games, that's just a function of the variance in football. But the BAD losses? That means something. That something being that your team is not good.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Now that they've lost, will they win again? But actually. They were near the cellar of the league before the best part of the team got injured.
29. St. Louis Rams
They're out of the 31 spot! They've done well recently to get some huge wins. And they're really just as low as they are because of the two awful losses they suffered in weeks 3 and 4. Discounting those, they're 13th. Now, a lot of teams would make a big jump if you ignored their two worst games, but not close to this big. There's just been a lot more variance in how well this team has played than there has been for anyone else.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Yeah, they're bad.
31. Dallas Cowboys
I'm surprised they're this low, but they've been gashed pretty much all season. And their offense has too many bad stretches to keep up over the long haul. They're not going to keep this run going for long.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Still the Jags. Still the worst.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Thursday, November 21, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 11
The new power rankings (not including Thursday Night Football):
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Detroit Lions
10. New York Jets
11. New York Giants
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Houston Texans
I've now seen them ranked as the worst team in the league. They're not (especially because the Jaguars exist). They're still better than average. They still have the best football player in the world.
15. Chicago Bears
16. New England Patriots
17. San Diego Chargers
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Washington Redskins
20. Oakland Raiders
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
22. Minnesota Vikings
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Baltimore Ravens
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Miami Dolphins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
It's interesting that they lost 27-17 when they have the 27th best offense and the 17th best defense in the league. What an awful team.
28. Indianapolis Colts
They're bad, too.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Dallas Cowboys
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Denver Broncos
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Detroit Lions
10. New York Jets
11. New York Giants
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Cleveland Browns
14. Houston Texans
I've now seen them ranked as the worst team in the league. They're not (especially because the Jaguars exist). They're still better than average. They still have the best football player in the world.
15. Chicago Bears
16. New England Patriots
17. San Diego Chargers
18. Tennessee Titans
19. Washington Redskins
20. Oakland Raiders
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
22. Minnesota Vikings
23. Buffalo Bills
24. Baltimore Ravens
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Miami Dolphins
27. Kansas City Chiefs
It's interesting that they lost 27-17 when they have the 27th best offense and the 17th best defense in the league. What an awful team.
28. Indianapolis Colts
They're bad, too.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Dallas Cowboys
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Thursday, November 14, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 10
Here they are, right before Thursday Night Football:
1. Denver Broncos
Back in first thanks in no small part to Aaron Rodgers's injury, but any small slip up against a weak Chiefs team next week could cost them their spot.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Right on the Broncos' heels. And speaking of heels, Achilles didn't make two free throws after his heel got fucked up. But I digress. This team is getting healthy at just the right time, and they were about a Peyton Manning incompletion away from number 1 already.
3. Green Bay Packers
Still a team to watch out for when Rodgers gets back. But it's their running game that has really been huge for them this season. After going 44 games without a 100 yard rusher, they're now averaging a whopping 4.8 yards per carry, 4th in the league and 1st among teams without a super-athletic QB bumping up the average (not counting Seneca Wallace).
4. Philadelphia Eagles
They're back and as good as ever before. Nick Foles has been the best passer in the NFL this season, and Vick was pretty good, too. The whole offense is amazing, just like the Packers', with the same kind of injury-induced hiccup slowing them down for a couple of games.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
They've been really good. They had a tough game in Baltimore, though, and I'm not as sold on their D without Geno Atkins.
6. San Francisco 49ers
They just can't throw the ball. Kaep just isn't being carried by his teammates (especially on the line) the way he was last year. But they do everything else really well, and are still one of the best teams in the league.
7. New Orleans Saints
That offense is amazing. 625 yards!! Everybody was too busy looking at what Brees did to notice that they also piled up 242 rushing yards as well. But they can't stop the run. At all. They're the only team worse at it than the Chiefs. And the Chiefs are awful. They're going to need to fix that up a little by the time they head to Seattle.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Yes the Cardinals. By my rankings, they should get the second of the NFC wild Cards. That's 3 NFC West teams in the top 8. And the other one just beat a team by 30 that everybody else thought was top 3 in the league. The Cardinals defense is for real.
9. New York Giants
Speaking of defenses that are for real, the Giants have what could be the best in the entire NFL. After starting 0-6, they've won 3 straight and look like they could even make an improbable run at the playoffs.
10. New York Jets
Another good defense combined with an O that often self-destructs.
11. Detroit Lions
A good defense combined with a D that often self-destructs. There seem to be a lot of teams like that this year (Broncos, Packers, Eagles, Saints, Bears, Redskins, Chargers, Falcons). No team outside of the NFC west is good at both (I define good as top 10).
12. Carolina Panthers
They keep making their run, and it looks really good. It does. They are pretty good. But let's chill our horses for a little bit. They aren't actually a threat to the Seahawks in the NFC, although they're definitely way better than some other really bad teams in playoff position (see Colts, Chiefs). I really want to see them match up with the Saints though. The Saints will have trouble stopping the running game.
13. Cleveland Browns
See #10. But worse. They're still a better than average team though. And they're the fucking Browns, so that means something.
14. Houston Texans
They've easily been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this season. It's going to be nearly impossible for them to catch the much-worse Colts in the division. But the best player in the world isn't going to go down easily.
15. New England Patriots
I don't know what to make of this team. On one hand, they're the Patriots. On the other, for the whole season other than their game against the Steelers, they've been one of the worst offenses in the league, and their defense has injury issues. On the third hand (don't question it), the offense is tossing aside their injury issues. They might actually be elite once healthy.
16. Chicago Bears
See #11. But worse.
17. Washington Redskins
They might be coming alive with Robert getting healthier. But as #11 mentions, the D self-destructs.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Ponder just went 17/21. Ponder. 17/21. Just throwing that out there. But they're still going to end up like Petey's front seat on Sunday.
19. Tennessee Titans
So what they lost to the Jags. That's just the variance of the NFL. They had some bad breaks. And it's not like they're a great team themselves.
20. San Diego Chargers
Don't let their holding Denver to 28 fool you. They were never in that game. The D was never going to be able to hold up. But the offense is good. I'd be shocked to see this team with the worst D in the league lose to the Chiefs in a couple weeks.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Not a great win, but a solid one. The defense played well. Maybe that's not so hard against the Bills though, at least in the passing game.
22. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals may have gotten lucky on the hail mary, but the Ravens were on the other side of the breaks for the rest of the game. They didn't really move the ball, although they somehow passed for 11 first downs on just 104 yards. And I can't give them credit for all the penalties that the Bengals committed.
23. Oakland Raiders
They did a good job keeping it close against the Giants, but there's a fine line between good mediocrity and bad mediocrity in the NFL. It's too easy to cross, and the Raiders did. Don't count them out though, at least from getting back to good mediocrity. As I mentioned recently, there's a very little difference between the teams in the middle of the pack (this week, the teams not in the top 7 or bottom 6).
24. Buffalo Bills
Why do I really just not want to talk about the Bills? I don't know, but I don't. So I won't.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They won! Yay! And they actually have a pretty good defense. There's no real reason why they should be the team with just 1 win and the Chiefs should have 9. Just luck. Not that the Bucs are good. Just that the Chiefs are bad. Really bad.
26. Miami Dolphins
And the team that gave the Bucs that first win. Their D is kinda okay too.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Yeah, the Colts. That "good" team that beat the top 2 teams (and #6). But it's luck. And not with a capital L. Same reason they lost to a worse Rams team by 30. There's a lot of variance in the NFL. But at least they're better than our #28 team (whom they play in week 16).
28. Kansas City Chiefs
I've already mentioned how bad they are. They don't stand a chance against the Broncos. Neither does the spread (Broncos by 7.5).
29. Atlanta Falcons
They just got decimated. That defense is atrocious. This team is actually worse than the Chiefs. The fucking Chiefs!
30. Dallas Cowboys
See #29
31. St. Louis Rams
Good for them beating the Colts. Really good for them beating the Colts by a lot. But the Colts suck. And the Rams got pretty lucky.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Winning is nice, but this team is still awful. They shouldn't expect much more of it.
1. Denver Broncos
Back in first thanks in no small part to Aaron Rodgers's injury, but any small slip up against a weak Chiefs team next week could cost them their spot.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Right on the Broncos' heels. And speaking of heels, Achilles didn't make two free throws after his heel got fucked up. But I digress. This team is getting healthy at just the right time, and they were about a Peyton Manning incompletion away from number 1 already.
3. Green Bay Packers
Still a team to watch out for when Rodgers gets back. But it's their running game that has really been huge for them this season. After going 44 games without a 100 yard rusher, they're now averaging a whopping 4.8 yards per carry, 4th in the league and 1st among teams without a super-athletic QB bumping up the average (not counting Seneca Wallace).
4. Philadelphia Eagles
They're back and as good as ever before. Nick Foles has been the best passer in the NFL this season, and Vick was pretty good, too. The whole offense is amazing, just like the Packers', with the same kind of injury-induced hiccup slowing them down for a couple of games.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
They've been really good. They had a tough game in Baltimore, though, and I'm not as sold on their D without Geno Atkins.
6. San Francisco 49ers
They just can't throw the ball. Kaep just isn't being carried by his teammates (especially on the line) the way he was last year. But they do everything else really well, and are still one of the best teams in the league.
7. New Orleans Saints
That offense is amazing. 625 yards!! Everybody was too busy looking at what Brees did to notice that they also piled up 242 rushing yards as well. But they can't stop the run. At all. They're the only team worse at it than the Chiefs. And the Chiefs are awful. They're going to need to fix that up a little by the time they head to Seattle.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Yes the Cardinals. By my rankings, they should get the second of the NFC wild Cards. That's 3 NFC West teams in the top 8. And the other one just beat a team by 30 that everybody else thought was top 3 in the league. The Cardinals defense is for real.
9. New York Giants
Speaking of defenses that are for real, the Giants have what could be the best in the entire NFL. After starting 0-6, they've won 3 straight and look like they could even make an improbable run at the playoffs.
10. New York Jets
Another good defense combined with an O that often self-destructs.
11. Detroit Lions
A good defense combined with a D that often self-destructs. There seem to be a lot of teams like that this year (Broncos, Packers, Eagles, Saints, Bears, Redskins, Chargers, Falcons). No team outside of the NFC west is good at both (I define good as top 10).
12. Carolina Panthers
They keep making their run, and it looks really good. It does. They are pretty good. But let's chill our horses for a little bit. They aren't actually a threat to the Seahawks in the NFC, although they're definitely way better than some other really bad teams in playoff position (see Colts, Chiefs). I really want to see them match up with the Saints though. The Saints will have trouble stopping the running game.
13. Cleveland Browns
See #10. But worse. They're still a better than average team though. And they're the fucking Browns, so that means something.
14. Houston Texans
They've easily been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this season. It's going to be nearly impossible for them to catch the much-worse Colts in the division. But the best player in the world isn't going to go down easily.
15. New England Patriots
I don't know what to make of this team. On one hand, they're the Patriots. On the other, for the whole season other than their game against the Steelers, they've been one of the worst offenses in the league, and their defense has injury issues. On the third hand (don't question it), the offense is tossing aside their injury issues. They might actually be elite once healthy.
16. Chicago Bears
See #11. But worse.
17. Washington Redskins
They might be coming alive with Robert getting healthier. But as #11 mentions, the D self-destructs.
18. Minnesota Vikings
Ponder just went 17/21. Ponder. 17/21. Just throwing that out there. But they're still going to end up like Petey's front seat on Sunday.
19. Tennessee Titans
So what they lost to the Jags. That's just the variance of the NFL. They had some bad breaks. And it's not like they're a great team themselves.
20. San Diego Chargers
Don't let their holding Denver to 28 fool you. They were never in that game. The D was never going to be able to hold up. But the offense is good. I'd be shocked to see this team with the worst D in the league lose to the Chiefs in a couple weeks.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Not a great win, but a solid one. The defense played well. Maybe that's not so hard against the Bills though, at least in the passing game.
22. Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals may have gotten lucky on the hail mary, but the Ravens were on the other side of the breaks for the rest of the game. They didn't really move the ball, although they somehow passed for 11 first downs on just 104 yards. And I can't give them credit for all the penalties that the Bengals committed.
23. Oakland Raiders
They did a good job keeping it close against the Giants, but there's a fine line between good mediocrity and bad mediocrity in the NFL. It's too easy to cross, and the Raiders did. Don't count them out though, at least from getting back to good mediocrity. As I mentioned recently, there's a very little difference between the teams in the middle of the pack (this week, the teams not in the top 7 or bottom 6).
24. Buffalo Bills
Why do I really just not want to talk about the Bills? I don't know, but I don't. So I won't.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They won! Yay! And they actually have a pretty good defense. There's no real reason why they should be the team with just 1 win and the Chiefs should have 9. Just luck. Not that the Bucs are good. Just that the Chiefs are bad. Really bad.
26. Miami Dolphins
And the team that gave the Bucs that first win. Their D is kinda okay too.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Yeah, the Colts. That "good" team that beat the top 2 teams (and #6). But it's luck. And not with a capital L. Same reason they lost to a worse Rams team by 30. There's a lot of variance in the NFL. But at least they're better than our #28 team (whom they play in week 16).
28. Kansas City Chiefs
I've already mentioned how bad they are. They don't stand a chance against the Broncos. Neither does the spread (Broncos by 7.5).
29. Atlanta Falcons
They just got decimated. That defense is atrocious. This team is actually worse than the Chiefs. The fucking Chiefs!
30. Dallas Cowboys
See #29
31. St. Louis Rams
Good for them beating the Colts. Really good for them beating the Colts by a lot. But the Colts suck. And the Rams got pretty lucky.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
Winning is nice, but this team is still awful. They shouldn't expect much more of it.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 9
They're late, but they're here. Rankings do not include Thursday Night Football results.
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Denver Broncos
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Nick Foles
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Houston Texans
9. New York Giants
10. New York Jets
11. Cleveland Browns
12. Detroit Lions
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Chicago Bears
15. Carolina Panthers
16. San Diego Chargers
17. Washington Redskins
18. New England Patriots
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Baltimore Ravens
21. Indianapolis Colts
22. Oakland Raiders
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Miami Dolphins
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Dallas Cowboys
28. Kansas City Chiefs
It's not that their offense (by my algorithm, ranked 28th in the league) is awful and their great D has been lucky to make up for it every game: a defensive team that has won a bunch of low scoring coin-flip games. Their defense is the 20th best in the league. They've just made a ridiculous number of lucky plays.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Denver Broncos
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Nick Foles
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Houston Texans
9. New York Giants
10. New York Jets
11. Cleveland Browns
12. Detroit Lions
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Chicago Bears
15. Carolina Panthers
16. San Diego Chargers
17. Washington Redskins
18. New England Patriots
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Baltimore Ravens
21. Indianapolis Colts
22. Oakland Raiders
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Buffalo Bills
25. Miami Dolphins
26. Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Dallas Cowboys
28. Kansas City Chiefs
It's not that their offense (by my algorithm, ranked 28th in the league) is awful and their great D has been lucky to make up for it every game: a defensive team that has won a bunch of low scoring coin-flip games. Their defense is the 20th best in the league. They've just made a ridiculous number of lucky plays.
29. Atlanta Falcons
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
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