Let me preface these rankings with a brief introduction. As
they are entirely computer based, and based off of just this season at that,
there are elements that cannot be controlled for at this point. For example,
the algorithm doesn’t look at any Jaguars games or Broncos games other than
week 1, so the Chiefs can be overly rewarded for playing a bad team while the
Ravens can be overly punished for playing a good team. However, with these
rankings, we can still see what demonstrated skill is likely to be repeatable
and which is not (such as 6 turnovers for the Giants). The rankings are all
computer, and the comments on the teams are all me. Enjoy:
1. Denver Broncos
This is what happens when your quarterback has the best game
of anyone since the merger. Given their schedule, 14-2 or 15-1 looks well
within their reach as long as Peyton stays healthy. The scary thing is they’ll
be even better when they get back one of the five best players in the entire
NFL in Von Miller. Watch out.
2. New York Giants
Surprise! When you turn the ball over 6 times, you should
lose by a lot. At least that’s what should happen when you have some of the worst luck
I’ve ever seen. Those turnovers aren’t going to happen again. Eli Manning and
the passing game being almost unstoppable other than the turnovers? Much more
repeatable, although I still expect a regression.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The best team in the league last year gets off to the same
kind of start in this one. That’s a good Packers secondary that they lit up.
I’d say I expect them to stay in the top 3 for a while, but anything can happen
in their huge week 2 matchup (see the team at 4)
4. Seattle Seahawks
A dominant defense and a superstar quarterback were barely
able to mask some huge issues on that offensive line. But with that
combination, they’re still one of the toughest teams to beat in the league,
especially at home. It’ll be a huge test next week against the 49ers. Both
those teams should be in the mix for the NFC championship until the very end no
matter how much they beat up on each other.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
This team was really bad last year. The Jags were too. But
while Jacksonville looks like they’re just repeating all of last year’s woes,
Kansas City might have turned a corner. I still want to see them dominate this
much against someone who looks like they belong in the NFL, but beating any
team as badly as they did is incredibly impressive.
6. Tennessee Titans
Wow. This game was the shocker of the week for me. The
Titans defense was bad last year. Not Saints bad, but really bad. And while the
Steelers aren’t the most prolific offense in the NFL, shutting them down the
way they did is impressive. In a weak AFC, the Titans might actually be able to
squeeze into the playoffs. I’m much more impressed by their win than the
Chiefs’. The Steelers were a really solid football team.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
Ahh, the Bengals. The second loser in the top 10. Dalton
threw his two picks, but as I’ve mentioned before, I don’t really care. He went
26/33 against the Bears. That’s really, really, really good. A.J. Green looks
better than ever. This team looks like the team to beat in the AFC North (and they’re
still in first place!).
8. St. Louis Rams
The battle for 3rd in the NFL’s best division,
and the Rams deserve this one. The Cards defense is pretty good, and Bradford
seems like he might take the big step this year. Cook looked legit,
and Austin can be a big plus, too. It’s just too bad this team couldn’t play in
a division that matches their current geographical location.
9. Houston Texans
The team that we saw in the second half last night after the
east coast went to bed could be the best in the AFC. JJ Watt is still the best
football player in the world, and Andre Johnson can still get open at will. The
team we saw in the first half… uggghhh. You made Philip Rivers look like Peyton
Manning. I expect this team to look a little more like the second half version
as the season goes on, and they can probably cruise to a 2 seed, although the
Titans might actually be a team to watch out for in their division.
10. Miami Dolphins
Great D. Cameron Wake is as good as ever, and they played
exactly as they were supposed to. The offense is a different story. Tannehill
wasn’t great, but he was good enough to get the job done. The running game on
the other hand? Maybe worse than the Ravens pass defense. 20 yards on 23
carries. And the Browns might be improved, but they aren’t that good. At this
point, here’s my advice to you: Just stop running the football. Entirely.
Tannehill can put up enough points to win with that defense, especially against
what, I must repeat, is an awful AFC.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
I believe in Chip! They passed! They ran! Oh did they run.
McCoy must love Chip’s offense. And even the D too! RG3 (Robert) is an
incredible quarterback, and they pretty much shut him down in the first half on
their way to a 33-7 lead. They can go from the cellar to the playoffs. I give
them as much credit as any other team in the league this week. Because they did
it against a good team. A really good team.
12. Oakland Raiders
I don’t know if Pryor is just this good, or if the Colts D
is just that bad. Probably a combination of both. I don’t expect them to go
very far this year, but they seem a hell of a lot more competitive than I
though they’d be.
13. New Orleans Saints
They lit up the Falcons, who had a bad defense, and they got
lit up by the Falcons, who had a good offense. But they limited their losses,
and they beat a team that was 13-3 last year. That limit of their losses was
mainly luck, but even the god-awful D they displayed is a huge improvement over
their maybe-the-worst-ever defense last year.
14. Cleveland Browns
I finally get to talk about a game I’ve talked about before.
This team is as high as it is because of that run defense. Maybe it’s luck.
Maybe it’s not. But teams don’t get that lucky that often. If the offense can
step up just a little bit, the Browns can compete for a playoff spot.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bad luck, and the LaVonte David hit might have even been
clean. But they were playing the Jets, and while the Jets are kind of like the
Cardinals with their good D and bad O, Josh Freeman looked bad. But given the
defenses of the Saints and Falcons, he might be able to still do some damage in
that division.
16. Detroit Lions
17. Minnesota Vikings
The fun game of the week. Reggie Bush all over the place,
the Lions looking like a pretty good team, and Adrian Peterson putting up a
hell of a lot of fantasy points for someone who was pretty much shut down other
than the first play. Both of these teams should be fun to watch the rest of the
season as they fight for a 9-7 record in a not-as-good-as-people-think NFC
North.
18. New York Jets
They got the win, and Geno Smith looked like a real
quarterback, but so would a lot of people compared to Mark Sanchez. In reality,
their offense wasn’t that good, and the D just carried them enough down the
stretch to keep them in a position to get lucky at the end.
19. Atlanta Falcons
20. Green Bay Packers
Two of last year’s top teams whose defenses were awful in
week 1, but they were both playing elite offenses, so maybe we can give them a
break. Both teams still put up enough points to keep them in the game until the
end. I think the 49ers are MUCH better than the Saints though, so I would be
MUCH more worried about the Falcons moving forward. The Pack should do just
fine, and they’ll probably win the division fairly handily.
21. Arizona Cardinals
You know, 21 isn’t so bad for this team. Carson Palmer is a
huge improvement at quarterback, and while this team will likely be out of the
playoff hunt halfway through the season, a lot of that can be attributed to
their division (and their conference). This team might be better than half the
AFC, but they still won’t sniff contention.
22. Chicago Bears
They won, but it wasn’t that impressive. Dalton dominated
them, and they just look mediocre. But the Bengals are a good team, so the
Bears will take what they can get. Looking mediocre against the Bengals might
be a good thing.
23. Buffalo Bills
24. New England Patriots
I found it interesting that my algorithm ranked both
competitors in this matchup so low. It’s almost entirely attributable to pretty
inefficient passing offenses (5.5 and 5.6 yards per attempt) on both sides.
Brady looked human, just as he did at the end of the Ravens game in the
playoffs last year, and the Bills didn’t even have Jarius Bryd at safety. Maybe
when he gets Gronk back he’ll be able to play like we’re used to, but until
then, I’m not sure if Julian Edelman and co. can keep the Patriots looking like
the Patriots of old.
25. Pittsburg Steelers
I’ll admit it. I had them winning the division. And I’ll
admit it. They looked horrible. The D wasn’t so bad (it never is), but the
offense was much, much worse than the mediocre one we saw last year. We’ll see
if they can right the ship.
26. San Diego Chargers
I’ve said most of it in the Texans entry. JJ Watt can make
anyone look bad. Maybe the first half was a sign of good things to come. But
considering the game on the whole, neither their offense nor their defense was
particularly good.
27. Washington Redskins
This team didn’t have a particularly good defense last year,
but they didn’t look like they could stop anybody on the ground in week 1.
However, last year, Robert led the league in yards per attempt and yards per
carry on the way to a well-deserved ROY award (over Russell Wilson, who had by
far the second best rookie season for any QB ever). Hopefully for the Redskins,
the Eagles were just good, and this first game was just a fluke for a QB who
had been injured for a while. They did seem to pick it up a little bit in the
second half. Time will tell.
28. Indianapolis Colts
Just like last year, the Colts played terribly and barely
beat a bad team. Unlike last year, however, Andrew Luck was actually pretty
good. He wasn’t amazing by any means, and he still got sacked too much, but he
was better, even considering the Raiders defense being made up of backups. The defense,
on the other hand, was bad. Really bad. There’s just no way Pryor is actually
that good. I don’t believe in this Colts team at all.
29. Carolina Panthers
Here’s a team I do still believe in. They won’t have to play
the Seahawks D and Russell Wilson every week, and their front 7 looked really
good, including rookie DT Star Lotulelei. They could still win this division.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
They’re bad.
31. Baltimore Ravens
Denver’s good. The Ravens are average.
32. Dallas Cowboys
They got lucky to win that first game, forcing 6 turnovers.
Maybe forcing isn’t the right word. Lucking into 6 turnovers is more accurate.
They couldn’t stop Eli Manning. Tony Romo wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t good either.
The Cowboys need to shore up their pass defense fast, or this could be a long
season for them.
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