Wednesday, January 29, 2014
A Super Matchup (Part 1: Passing)
Here, I'm just going to look at the passing games. Clearly, the Broncos' passing offense is better. But that doesn't matter. The Seahawks passing defense is better. But that doesn't matter either. This will be a look into the passing game in today's NFL. And we'll see why it's the Seahawks, not the Broncos, who should be wishing the game were played in a dome.
Normally, the offense dictates the passing game. Good quarterbacks put up good numbers. Peyton Manning dominates pretty much everyone. And good defenses get carved up by good quarterbacks. Nowadays, it's just too hard to stop someone who can consistently make the right read and put the ball on the money. Passing games have taken off. So normally, we should be placing much more weight on the Broncos' offensive strength rather than the Seahawks' defensive advantage.
But these Seahawks are different. It's not just how good they are. It's not just that they allow an average passer rating of 63.4 (The Bengals are second, allowing an average passer rating that's more than 10 points higher.). It's that they have transcended the norm. In the Seahawks' case, the first sentence of the second paragraph doesn't hold.
For a typical defense like the Broncos, the correlation between passer rating allowed and opponent's season passer rating is about .6 (I did the exact calculation, going through each game including postseason and looking at the opponent's starting quarterback's passer rating in the specific game and for the whole season, and r=.605.). Since r^2 = .6^2 = .36, this means that 36% of the variation in an opposing QB's passer rating vs. the Broncos can be explained by the variation in his actual season-long passer rating. Most of the rest of the variation can be attributed to luck*. For the Bengals, r^2 was .18: much lower, but still a reasonably significant factor. However, for the Seahawks, that r^2 value was less than .1 (!). They were so good at defense that the success of their opponent's passing game was almost entirely attributable to luck, and only as important as the Seahawks' own defensive skill.
This leads to a least squares regression line for the Seahawks' passer-rating-against of:
RatingAgainst = .874*opponentSeasonRating - 8.187.
For the Broncos, it's:
RatingAgainst = 1.28*opponentSeasonRating - 21.167
For Peyton Manning, we have:
PasserRating = .6024*opponentSeasonRatingAgainst + 58.8
And finally, for Russell Wilson, we have:
PasserRating = 1.535*opponentSeasonRatingAgainst - 34.1
Each of these, respectively, predict passer ratings of:
Peyton Manning rating of 92.42
Russell Wilson rating of 108.41
Peyton Manning rating of 96.99
Russell Wilson rating of 95.66
Manning's average is 94.7, Wilson's is 102. These predictions not only took into account the skills of the offenses and defenses, but how much each depended on the other team's skill. After doing that, we see that it is in fact the Seahawks that have a huge advantage in the passing game, mainly due to a defense that dominates good quarterbacks almost as well as it dominates bad ones. Given how strongly passer rating correlates with winning, this is a good sign for the Seattle Seahawks.
And it makes sense. Normally, a passing attack involves a set of receivers that more talented secondaries will shut down more effectively. The more solid defensive backs a defense has, the fewer receivers that will be open consistently. Similarly, and more importantly, the more stacked a receiving core is (and the more accurate their QB is), the more consistently those receivers will be open enough against overmatched secondaries. There will always be variance, and as I've talked about many times before, way more of it than most people assume, but an overmatched DB is an overmatched DB, and when the probability of some receiver getting open gets close to 1, the variance decreases. Let's look more closely at this. No defense allows less than a 50% completion percentage, so we don't see the variance drop-off from a lower-than-.5 probability of someone getting open (again, open enough. Because the quarterback matters.). If p is the probability that someone gets open enough for a completion, then the variance of completion percentage is attempts*p*(1-p), which clearly gets smaller as completion percentage (p) increases (again, note that in what we're looking at p is always above .5.). So that's one element. But it's not just that. Every quarterback in the NFL can hit an open slant pretty consistently, and every receiver can get open on a slant reasonably often. This will happen against the Seahawks, too. Because some things are just unstoppable (or at least close). What the Seahawks do with their secondary, which is probably the best secondary of all time, is they take away the stuff that's not unstoppable. Which also happens to be the stuff that separates good passing offenses from bad ones. When every offense is reduced to doing something that every offense does pretty well, the good ones don't stand out any more. And this is probably the bigger reason. Getting open deep against Sherman, Maxwell, Thurmond, or Thomas isn't a sign that you're good. It's just a fluke that happens on a blown coverage a couple times a year, irrespective of how good the receiver or quarterback is. And that's why the Seahawks are such a roadblock for good passing games.
*For a typical quarterback, like Andy Dalton (We were talking about the Bengals, and Peyton and Russell are too good to be considered typical), the correlation between passer rating in a given game and that opponent's passer rating allowed (over the season) is about .3 (This was the calculated r value for Dalton. It was only .25 for Manning.), so only about 9% of the variation is due to defense. That's a fourth as much as the variation due to QB against an average defense like the Broncos.
Normally, the offense dictates the passing game. Good quarterbacks put up good numbers. Peyton Manning dominates pretty much everyone. And good defenses get carved up by good quarterbacks. Nowadays, it's just too hard to stop someone who can consistently make the right read and put the ball on the money. Passing games have taken off. So normally, we should be placing much more weight on the Broncos' offensive strength rather than the Seahawks' defensive advantage.
But these Seahawks are different. It's not just how good they are. It's not just that they allow an average passer rating of 63.4 (The Bengals are second, allowing an average passer rating that's more than 10 points higher.). It's that they have transcended the norm. In the Seahawks' case, the first sentence of the second paragraph doesn't hold.
For a typical defense like the Broncos, the correlation between passer rating allowed and opponent's season passer rating is about .6 (I did the exact calculation, going through each game including postseason and looking at the opponent's starting quarterback's passer rating in the specific game and for the whole season, and r=.605.). Since r^2 = .6^2 = .36, this means that 36% of the variation in an opposing QB's passer rating vs. the Broncos can be explained by the variation in his actual season-long passer rating. Most of the rest of the variation can be attributed to luck*. For the Bengals, r^2 was .18: much lower, but still a reasonably significant factor. However, for the Seahawks, that r^2 value was less than .1 (!). They were so good at defense that the success of their opponent's passing game was almost entirely attributable to luck, and only as important as the Seahawks' own defensive skill.
This leads to a least squares regression line for the Seahawks' passer-rating-against of:
RatingAgainst = .874*opponentSeasonRating - 8.187.
For the Broncos, it's:
RatingAgainst = 1.28*opponentSeasonRating - 21.167
For Peyton Manning, we have:
PasserRating = .6024*opponentSeasonRatingAgainst + 58.8
And finally, for Russell Wilson, we have:
PasserRating = 1.535*opponentSeasonRatingAgainst - 34.1
Each of these, respectively, predict passer ratings of:
Peyton Manning rating of 92.42
Russell Wilson rating of 108.41
Peyton Manning rating of 96.99
Russell Wilson rating of 95.66
Manning's average is 94.7, Wilson's is 102. These predictions not only took into account the skills of the offenses and defenses, but how much each depended on the other team's skill. After doing that, we see that it is in fact the Seahawks that have a huge advantage in the passing game, mainly due to a defense that dominates good quarterbacks almost as well as it dominates bad ones. Given how strongly passer rating correlates with winning, this is a good sign for the Seattle Seahawks.
And it makes sense. Normally, a passing attack involves a set of receivers that more talented secondaries will shut down more effectively. The more solid defensive backs a defense has, the fewer receivers that will be open consistently. Similarly, and more importantly, the more stacked a receiving core is (and the more accurate their QB is), the more consistently those receivers will be open enough against overmatched secondaries. There will always be variance, and as I've talked about many times before, way more of it than most people assume, but an overmatched DB is an overmatched DB, and when the probability of some receiver getting open gets close to 1, the variance decreases. Let's look more closely at this. No defense allows less than a 50% completion percentage, so we don't see the variance drop-off from a lower-than-.5 probability of someone getting open (again, open enough. Because the quarterback matters.). If p is the probability that someone gets open enough for a completion, then the variance of completion percentage is attempts*p*(1-p), which clearly gets smaller as completion percentage (p) increases (again, note that in what we're looking at p is always above .5.). So that's one element. But it's not just that. Every quarterback in the NFL can hit an open slant pretty consistently, and every receiver can get open on a slant reasonably often. This will happen against the Seahawks, too. Because some things are just unstoppable (or at least close). What the Seahawks do with their secondary, which is probably the best secondary of all time, is they take away the stuff that's not unstoppable. Which also happens to be the stuff that separates good passing offenses from bad ones. When every offense is reduced to doing something that every offense does pretty well, the good ones don't stand out any more. And this is probably the bigger reason. Getting open deep against Sherman, Maxwell, Thurmond, or Thomas isn't a sign that you're good. It's just a fluke that happens on a blown coverage a couple times a year, irrespective of how good the receiver or quarterback is. And that's why the Seahawks are such a roadblock for good passing games.
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
New Playoff Simulation
It's interesting that the two worst teams remaining have been matched up against each other in each of the first two rounds. And it will actually happen again in the next round if the Chargers beat the Broncos. And clearly it will be true for the Super Bowl by virtue of the fact that there are only two teams remaining.
Seahawks
Championship %: 36.1921985
Making Super Bowl %: 56.7616887
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 74.3278182
Broncos
Championship %: 34.5214005
Making Super Bowl %: 66.2177433
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 76.473966
Panthers
Championship %: 5.3916135
Making Super Bowl %: 13.2613655
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 48.7566131
Saints
Championship %: 5.363147
Making Super Bowl %: 11.304726599999999
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 25.6721818
Chargers
Championship %: 4.1272912
Making Super Bowl %: 12.2613634
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 23.526034000000003
Patriots
Championship %: 3.4121841
Making Super Bowl %: 13.820838599999998
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 60.9514125
Colts
Championship %: 1.6740958
Making Super Bowl %: 7.7000547
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 39.0485875
Seahawks
Championship %: 36.1921985
Making Super Bowl %: 56.7616887
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 74.3278182
Broncos
Championship %: 34.5214005
Making Super Bowl %: 66.2177433
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 76.473966
49ers
Championship %: 9.318069399999999
Making Super Bowl %: 18.6722192
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 51.2433869
Championship %: 9.318069399999999
Making Super Bowl %: 18.6722192
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 51.2433869
Championship %: 5.3916135
Making Super Bowl %: 13.2613655
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 48.7566131
Saints
Championship %: 5.363147
Making Super Bowl %: 11.304726599999999
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 25.6721818
Chargers
Championship %: 4.1272912
Making Super Bowl %: 12.2613634
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 23.526034000000003
Championship %: 3.4121841
Making Super Bowl %: 13.820838599999998
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 60.9514125
Colts
Championship %: 1.6740958
Making Super Bowl %: 7.7000547
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 39.0485875
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Playoff Simulation
I ran a simulation one billion times to model how the playoffs will likely shape up. For each game, I determined each team's winning percentage by adding half the difference between their value and their opponent's value to 50%. So if the Seahawks, 1.087, played the Broncos, .98, on a neutral field, like MetLife Stadium, the Seahawks would have a .5+(.5*.107) = .5535, or 55.35% chance of winning. For home field advantage, I added and subtracted 8% to the probabilities for each team winning, since the home team wins approximately 58% of NFL games. Here are the results:
Seahawks
Championship %: 34.3398691
Making Super Bowl %: 55.7508092
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 76.8658154
Broncos
Championship %: 33.0435233
Making Super Bowl %: 65.4829082
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 84.3349107
Eagles
Championship %: 10.9044103
Making Super Bowl %: 19.079039
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 42.386774
Bengals
Championship %: 6.7012339
Making Super Bowl %: 16.0236838
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 41.2407351
Panthers
Championship %: 4.5204189
Making Super Bowl %: 11.7405614
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 44.016027
49ers
Championship %: 3.589172
Making Super Bowl %: 7.5192034
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 19.5851
Patriots
Championship %: 2.2463443
Making Super Bowl %: 9.7556032
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 46.0948754
Saints
Championship %: 1.6407802
Making Super Bowl %: 3.6245264
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 7.7325946
Chargers
Championship %: 1.2586821
Making Super Bowl %: 3.9357545
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 7.5681807
Packers
Championship %: 0.7755968
Making Super Bowl %: 2.2858606
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 9.413689
Chiefs
Championship %: 0.4454683
Making Super Bowl %: 2.1390038
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 9.0626339
Seahawks
Championship %: 34.3398691
Making Super Bowl %: 55.7508092
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 76.8658154
Broncos
Championship %: 33.0435233
Making Super Bowl %: 65.4829082
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 84.3349107
Eagles
Championship %: 10.9044103
Making Super Bowl %: 19.079039
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 42.386774
Bengals
Championship %: 6.7012339
Making Super Bowl %: 16.0236838
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 41.2407351
Panthers
Championship %: 4.5204189
Making Super Bowl %: 11.7405614
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 44.016027
Championship %: 3.589172
Making Super Bowl %: 7.5192034
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 19.5851
Patriots
Championship %: 2.2463443
Making Super Bowl %: 9.7556032
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 46.0948754
Saints
Championship %: 1.6407802
Making Super Bowl %: 3.6245264
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 7.7325946
Championship %: 1.2586821
Making Super Bowl %: 3.9357545
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 7.5681807
Packers
Championship %: 0.7755968
Making Super Bowl %: 2.2858606
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 9.413689
Colts
Championship %: 0.5345008
Making Super Bowl %: 2.6630465
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 11.6986642
Championship %: 0.5345008
Making Super Bowl %: 2.6630465
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 11.6986642
Championship %: 0.4454683
Making Super Bowl %: 2.1390038
Conference Championship Game Appearance %: 9.0626339
Final Regular Season Power Rankings
Here we go with the final rankings of the season. 20 of the teams are completely gone now.
1. Seattle Seahawks (1.09)
Number 1 since week 11, while the offense has been having troubles of late, the defense has been as good as ever, if not better. Combined with home field advantage in both NFC playoff games, this team is the favorite to win the Superbowl.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (.998)
They barely squeaked into the playoffs, but now they're a 3 seed and a huge threat to go all the way. They're 7-1 since Foles came back and lit up the Raiders for 7 touchdowns.
3. Denver Broncos (.980)
Peyton Manning has been as good this year as any quarterback ever. And even the defense has been playing a lot better recently. They've gotten to 11th in my rankings. Given how awful the AFC is, they almost have as good a shot as the Seahawks to win it all.
3.5 Arizona Cardinals
This will be my one mention of a non-playoff team. In any other division, this team goes 12-4 and gets a first round bye. Maybe better in the other conference. May we always remember this Cardinals team that had to suffer the terrible luck of missing the playoffs with a top 4 squad in the entire NFL.
4. San Francisco 49ers (.810)
They didn't get the division, leaving them with a tough road, but this is an elite team (top 10 O and D) with a good shot to beat anybody else in the league.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (.807)
Clear second best in the AFC. I mean, half that conference is worse than league average. Unfortunately, they get a first round matchup with the one other non-bye team that isn't awful. But then they get a matchup against a Patriots team they completely shut down earlier in the year. Look to see the Bengals in the AFC championship. They deserve to be there.
6. New Orleans Saints (.761)
Good teams can get stuck in bad spots. Now they're a 6-seed that has to beat the 2nd best team in the NFL on the road followed by the best just to make the conference championship.
7. Carolina Panthers (.625)
They've been carried by their defense to a first round bye, and despite not being as good as most of their NFC competition, they still have the best chance in the conference to make the Super Bowl of teams that aren't top 2 in the NFL.
8. San Diego Chargers (.611)
What a run to make the playoffs. Now they face the toughest possible road to the Super Bowl of any AFC team, but at least they're in the AFC. I don't know how much of their success is luck, maybe all of it, but if not, watch out for Rivers and co. to keep their winning ways going and even possibly make it to New York (ok, Jersey, but whatever).
9. Green Bay Packers (.534)
They had a pretty bad game against the Bears, but it was good enough, or maybe lucky enough, to give them a home game in the NFC playoffs. Now they just have to run through the NFC west with one of the worst defenses in the league. It's not looking good.
10. New England Patriots (.431)
How does a team this bad get the 2-seed? I guess it's a lot better than the Chiefs getting the 1 seed or the Cowboys making the playoffs. But now they have a pretty easy path to the championship game, only needing to win once at home.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (.387)
12. Indianapolis Colts (.372)
They two awful teams in the playoffs. And they get to play each other. As in, one of THESE teams is actually going to win a playoff game. What is the world coming to?
And with that, I conclude my seasonal power rankings. Look soon for the results of my playoff simulation.
1. Seattle Seahawks (1.09)
Number 1 since week 11, while the offense has been having troubles of late, the defense has been as good as ever, if not better. Combined with home field advantage in both NFC playoff games, this team is the favorite to win the Superbowl.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (.998)
They barely squeaked into the playoffs, but now they're a 3 seed and a huge threat to go all the way. They're 7-1 since Foles came back and lit up the Raiders for 7 touchdowns.
3. Denver Broncos (.980)
Peyton Manning has been as good this year as any quarterback ever. And even the defense has been playing a lot better recently. They've gotten to 11th in my rankings. Given how awful the AFC is, they almost have as good a shot as the Seahawks to win it all.
3.5 Arizona Cardinals
This will be my one mention of a non-playoff team. In any other division, this team goes 12-4 and gets a first round bye. Maybe better in the other conference. May we always remember this Cardinals team that had to suffer the terrible luck of missing the playoffs with a top 4 squad in the entire NFL.
4. San Francisco 49ers (.810)
They didn't get the division, leaving them with a tough road, but this is an elite team (top 10 O and D) with a good shot to beat anybody else in the league.
5. Cincinnati Bengals (.807)
Clear second best in the AFC. I mean, half that conference is worse than league average. Unfortunately, they get a first round matchup with the one other non-bye team that isn't awful. But then they get a matchup against a Patriots team they completely shut down earlier in the year. Look to see the Bengals in the AFC championship. They deserve to be there.
6. New Orleans Saints (.761)
Good teams can get stuck in bad spots. Now they're a 6-seed that has to beat the 2nd best team in the NFL on the road followed by the best just to make the conference championship.
7. Carolina Panthers (.625)
They've been carried by their defense to a first round bye, and despite not being as good as most of their NFC competition, they still have the best chance in the conference to make the Super Bowl of teams that aren't top 2 in the NFL.
8. San Diego Chargers (.611)
What a run to make the playoffs. Now they face the toughest possible road to the Super Bowl of any AFC team, but at least they're in the AFC. I don't know how much of their success is luck, maybe all of it, but if not, watch out for Rivers and co. to keep their winning ways going and even possibly make it to New York (ok, Jersey, but whatever).
9. Green Bay Packers (.534)
They had a pretty bad game against the Bears, but it was good enough, or maybe lucky enough, to give them a home game in the NFC playoffs. Now they just have to run through the NFC west with one of the worst defenses in the league. It's not looking good.
10. New England Patriots (.431)
How does a team this bad get the 2-seed? I guess it's a lot better than the Chiefs getting the 1 seed or the Cowboys making the playoffs. But now they have a pretty easy path to the championship game, only needing to win once at home.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (.387)
12. Indianapolis Colts (.372)
They two awful teams in the playoffs. And they get to play each other. As in, one of THESE teams is actually going to win a playoff game. What is the world coming to?
And with that, I conclude my seasonal power rankings. Look soon for the results of my playoff simulation.
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 16
Here are the numbers:
Falcons, 12, 31, 0.1334390210307792, 32
Jags, 31, 26, 0.15140477278869113, 31
Cowboys, 14, 29, 0.29147424627998586, 30
Bucs, 32, 11, 0.30750649236354, 29
Dolphins, 26, 17, 0.35509379631812965, 28
Colts, 17, 27, 0.36584160553688705, 27
Bears, 5, 32, 0.36876858888173747, 26
Ravens, 30, 9, 0.3754446324581795, 25
Texans, 25, 16, 0.3801947396870673, 24
Rams, 23, 22, 0.4046834612253497, 23
Chiefs, 22, 20, 0.41145878166580796, 22
Raiders, 19, 23, 0.4163870440437285, 21
Redskins, 21, 21, 0.4214965188683585, 20
Vikings, 18, 24, 0.43123480877664233, 19
Bills, 28, 8, 0.43968584908812025, 18
Pats, 11, 25, 0.4419916241086006, 17
Jets, 24, 10, 0.46792503725051016, 16
Titans, 20, 13, 0.4844203356369665, 15
Steelers, 15, 18, 0.49801577605291825, 14
Browns, 27, 6, 0.5083336152297773, 13
Pack, 6, 28, 0.5501259799423028, 12
Giants, 29, 3, 0.5972064526136713, 11
Chargers, 3, 30, 0.6010593084327267, 10
Panthers, 16, 7, 0.6313047947783862, 9
Lions, 7, 19, 0.6583647443976135, 8
Saints, 8, 14, 0.693117871310926, 7
Bengals, 10, 5, 0.7637636581739935, 6
Cardinals, 13, 1, 0.8048230410722862, 5
Niners, 9, 4, 0.8051773714631008, 4
Broncos, 2, 15, 0.9667575885579349, 3
Eagles, 1, 12, 1.0403685564872065, 2
Hawks, 4, 2, 1.1003484944329718, 1
And the rankings. This week I'm going to add back in all the teams that have not been mathematically eliminated.
1. Seattle Seahawks
This loss was a bad one, but they keep the number one spot by virtue of the rest of their season.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable)
Well, that's what you get when an unstoppable force meets the opposite of an immovable object. 300 yards rushing (almost), 200 yards passing, and 54 points. They're closing on the top spot. With a big win against the Romo-less Cowboys they could get there.
3. Denver Broncos
Another game that's kept close and then just blown wide open in the 4th quarter. The loss of Von Miller is going to hurt, though.
4. San Francisco 49ers
They were so close to blowing it against the NFL's (new) worst team, and I'd say they got really lucky with the pick six at the end, but they were pretty damn unlucky to be in that situation in the first place. They could still get a first round bye with a win and a Seattle loss.
5. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful)
That was a huge win Sunday, one of the most impressive by any team all season. That defense is getting some recognition, but not the recognition it's due. At this point, they're historically good. The offense and the playoff chances, not so much. They still need a win vs. the 49ers and the Saints to blow it against a bad Bucs team.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Huge win after the mess last week. They put themselves in the playoffs, winning the division and possibly setting themselves up for a first round bye (if they win and the Pats lose). As I've said before, this is the team to watch out for. This is the Broncos' biggest competition by far.
7. Saints
This team could still miss the playoffs (if and only if the Cardinals make it), but they seem to be very likely set for a wild card. That loss vs. the Panthers (and the Rams before it) was a huge blow.
8. Detroit Lions (Out)
They completely blew what seemed like a sure thing 3 weeks ago. And now they're done. They don't need to even bother with their last game. They have no chance.
9. Carolina Panthers
They've pretty much secured a bye, and they could even get the 1-seed if they win and the 49ers win the NFC West. They're not as good as they're made out to be, but with home field advantage, they can at least make the second round. And maybe even beat Aaron Rodgers, Nick Foles, or Russell Wilson if they're really lucky. Or get lucky before that and get to play anyone else.
10. San Diego Chargers (Doubtful)
They were out last week, but everything broke right for them! Now they're still not eliminated, and with a Baltimore loss at Cincy (very likely) and a Dolphins loss against the Jets (coin flip, maybe slightly in the Dolphins' favor. maybe), they only need to beat the backups of an already bad Chiefs team. It's not so bad anymore.
12. Green Bay Packers (Questionable)
They didn't play so well, but it didn't matter. They get to play a horrible Bears defense (especially vs. the run) for a playoff spot (4-seed). They probably don't even need Aaron Rodgers, though they might get him back anyway.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (Out)
They have very very little chance, but since they're not mathematically eliminated, I should put them back. They did their job vs. the Packers, and now they need the Chargers' scenario to unfold, except with a Chargers loss and a win for them against the Browns (which won't be that easy).
17. New England Patriots
That was a pretty big blowout for a bad performance by a bad team. They lucked into 4 (really 7 if you count downs) turnovers by an even worse team, so they weren't really all that good even. They're lucky their second round matchup is going to be against the Chiefs.
22. Kansas City Chiefs
Hey, we were just talking about them! And what do you know, they're all the way up here, the highest they've been in a long time. Jamaal Charles still ran for 106 yards on just 13 carries. The problem was that they lost 3 fumbles, which is just bad luck. They aren't good by any means, but neither are the Colts.
25. Baltimore Ravens (Doubtful)
It wasn't good by any means, but as I've discussed before, it wasn't as bad as a 34 point loss to the 17th best team in the league usually is, or even close. They still control their own destiny.
26. Chicago Bears (Questionable)
This is getting to be as bad as the Saints last year. They can't stop anyone. I mean, it's hard to stop the best offense in football, but it shouldn't be THAT bad. Or even close. I don't like their chances at home against Matt Flynn. Their receivers are good, though.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Yet another awful team doing well. It's kind of sad, really, that all the teams ranked 25-28 (and 30) are more in the playoff hunt than the 5th best team in the league.
28. Miami Dolphins (Questionable)
It's worse. That was the most pathetic offensive performance I've seen all year. And I saw the Giants last week. It wasn't close. They had 103 yards of offense. 103. Against the Bills. They still have the best chance to get the 6-seed, but they have to play a lot better against the Jets. Or hope their defense can score the points for them.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful)
It's already tough playing the second best team in the NFL. It's even worse when you're the 3rd worst team. But when one player is pretty much the only reason why you win games, and that player doesn't play, you're fucked. Still have a better shot that Arizona though, unfortunately.
Falcons, 12, 31, 0.1334390210307792, 32
Jags, 31, 26, 0.15140477278869113, 31
Cowboys, 14, 29, 0.29147424627998586, 30
Bucs, 32, 11, 0.30750649236354, 29
Dolphins, 26, 17, 0.35509379631812965, 28
Colts, 17, 27, 0.36584160553688705, 27
Bears, 5, 32, 0.36876858888173747, 26
Ravens, 30, 9, 0.3754446324581795, 25
Texans, 25, 16, 0.3801947396870673, 24
Rams, 23, 22, 0.4046834612253497, 23
Chiefs, 22, 20, 0.41145878166580796, 22
Raiders, 19, 23, 0.4163870440437285, 21
Redskins, 21, 21, 0.4214965188683585, 20
Vikings, 18, 24, 0.43123480877664233, 19
Bills, 28, 8, 0.43968584908812025, 18
Pats, 11, 25, 0.4419916241086006, 17
Jets, 24, 10, 0.46792503725051016, 16
Titans, 20, 13, 0.4844203356369665, 15
Steelers, 15, 18, 0.49801577605291825, 14
Browns, 27, 6, 0.5083336152297773, 13
Pack, 6, 28, 0.5501259799423028, 12
Giants, 29, 3, 0.5972064526136713, 11
Chargers, 3, 30, 0.6010593084327267, 10
Panthers, 16, 7, 0.6313047947783862, 9
Lions, 7, 19, 0.6583647443976135, 8
Saints, 8, 14, 0.693117871310926, 7
Bengals, 10, 5, 0.7637636581739935, 6
Cardinals, 13, 1, 0.8048230410722862, 5
Niners, 9, 4, 0.8051773714631008, 4
Broncos, 2, 15, 0.9667575885579349, 3
Eagles, 1, 12, 1.0403685564872065, 2
Hawks, 4, 2, 1.1003484944329718, 1
And the rankings. This week I'm going to add back in all the teams that have not been mathematically eliminated.
1. Seattle Seahawks
This loss was a bad one, but they keep the number one spot by virtue of the rest of their season.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable)
Well, that's what you get when an unstoppable force meets the opposite of an immovable object. 300 yards rushing (almost), 200 yards passing, and 54 points. They're closing on the top spot. With a big win against the Romo-less Cowboys they could get there.
3. Denver Broncos
Another game that's kept close and then just blown wide open in the 4th quarter. The loss of Von Miller is going to hurt, though.
4. San Francisco 49ers
They were so close to blowing it against the NFL's (new) worst team, and I'd say they got really lucky with the pick six at the end, but they were pretty damn unlucky to be in that situation in the first place. They could still get a first round bye with a win and a Seattle loss.
5. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful)
That was a huge win Sunday, one of the most impressive by any team all season. That defense is getting some recognition, but not the recognition it's due. At this point, they're historically good. The offense and the playoff chances, not so much. They still need a win vs. the 49ers and the Saints to blow it against a bad Bucs team.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Huge win after the mess last week. They put themselves in the playoffs, winning the division and possibly setting themselves up for a first round bye (if they win and the Pats lose). As I've said before, this is the team to watch out for. This is the Broncos' biggest competition by far.
7. Saints
This team could still miss the playoffs (if and only if the Cardinals make it), but they seem to be very likely set for a wild card. That loss vs. the Panthers (and the Rams before it) was a huge blow.
8. Detroit Lions (Out)
They completely blew what seemed like a sure thing 3 weeks ago. And now they're done. They don't need to even bother with their last game. They have no chance.
9. Carolina Panthers
They've pretty much secured a bye, and they could even get the 1-seed if they win and the 49ers win the NFC West. They're not as good as they're made out to be, but with home field advantage, they can at least make the second round. And maybe even beat Aaron Rodgers, Nick Foles, or Russell Wilson if they're really lucky. Or get lucky before that and get to play anyone else.
10. San Diego Chargers (Doubtful)
They were out last week, but everything broke right for them! Now they're still not eliminated, and with a Baltimore loss at Cincy (very likely) and a Dolphins loss against the Jets (coin flip, maybe slightly in the Dolphins' favor. maybe), they only need to beat the backups of an already bad Chiefs team. It's not so bad anymore.
12. Green Bay Packers (Questionable)
They didn't play so well, but it didn't matter. They get to play a horrible Bears defense (especially vs. the run) for a playoff spot (4-seed). They probably don't even need Aaron Rodgers, though they might get him back anyway.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (Out)
They have very very little chance, but since they're not mathematically eliminated, I should put them back. They did their job vs. the Packers, and now they need the Chargers' scenario to unfold, except with a Chargers loss and a win for them against the Browns (which won't be that easy).
17. New England Patriots
That was a pretty big blowout for a bad performance by a bad team. They lucked into 4 (really 7 if you count downs) turnovers by an even worse team, so they weren't really all that good even. They're lucky their second round matchup is going to be against the Chiefs.
22. Kansas City Chiefs
Hey, we were just talking about them! And what do you know, they're all the way up here, the highest they've been in a long time. Jamaal Charles still ran for 106 yards on just 13 carries. The problem was that they lost 3 fumbles, which is just bad luck. They aren't good by any means, but neither are the Colts.
25. Baltimore Ravens (Doubtful)
It wasn't good by any means, but as I've discussed before, it wasn't as bad as a 34 point loss to the 17th best team in the league usually is, or even close. They still control their own destiny.
26. Chicago Bears (Questionable)
This is getting to be as bad as the Saints last year. They can't stop anyone. I mean, it's hard to stop the best offense in football, but it shouldn't be THAT bad. Or even close. I don't like their chances at home against Matt Flynn. Their receivers are good, though.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Yet another awful team doing well. It's kind of sad, really, that all the teams ranked 25-28 (and 30) are more in the playoff hunt than the 5th best team in the league.
28. Miami Dolphins (Questionable)
It's worse. That was the most pathetic offensive performance I've seen all year. And I saw the Giants last week. It wasn't close. They had 103 yards of offense. 103. Against the Bills. They still have the best chance to get the 6-seed, but they have to play a lot better against the Jets. Or hope their defense can score the points for them.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful)
It's already tough playing the second best team in the NFL. It's even worse when you're the 3rd worst team. But when one player is pretty much the only reason why you win games, and that player doesn't play, you're fucked. Still have a better shot that Arizona though, unfortunately.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
NFL Power Rankings Week 15
Alright, here are the numbers, this time in a less organized format because you've now seen how they work. We have team name, offensive rank, defensive rank, overall team skill, and overall rank.
Jags, 32, 27, 0.12801184595043424, 32
Falcons, 19, 31, 0.13601628773502616, 31
Cowboys, 11, 29, 0.26535191354190346, 30
Bucs, 31, 10, 0.31430210762992405, 29
Bills, 29, 12, 0.36011225536009317, 28
Rams, 22, 25, 0.3630011127166235, 27
Colts, 16, 26, 0.3751642860939558, 26
Ravens, 30, 8, 0.37714367243661884, 25
Chiefs, 23, 20, 0.3810025201179349, 24
Dolphins, 25, 15, 0.4023249273254861, 23
Redskins, 20, 22, 0.41097279026047073, 22
Raiders, 18, 23, 0.4119516662432676, 21
Jets, 26, 9, 0.43103664336687064, 20
Texans, 24, 11, 0.43116666468870146, 19
Pats, 12, 24, 0.4380997790375938, 18
Vikings, 14, 19, 0.4507626847839823, 17
Steelers, 13, 17, 0.48182210203227294, 16
Titans, 21, 13, 0.4891655423898721, 15
Bears, 5, 32, 0.49359225969732445, 14
Browns, 27, 6, 0.5527254925806013, 13
Chargers, 4, 30, 0.5797990195734258, 12
Giants, 28, 3, 0.5915985527372775, 11
Pack, 6, 28, 0.5994590730830835, 10
Panthers, 17, 7, 0.6135466968352618, 9
Lions, 7, 21, 0.6683376232490422, 8
Saints, 8, 14, 0.7260792136551181, 7
Bengals, 10, 5, 0.7304629940368006, 6
Cardinals, 15, 1, 0.7712413822602959, 5
Niners, 9, 4, 0.806848229999425, 4
Broncos, 3, 18, 0.8850078855424114, 3
Eagles, 1, 16, 0.9378928096470434, 2
Hawks, 2, 2, 1.1933136193704903, 1
And now let's get into the playoff teams
1. Seattle Seahawks
Another dominant defensive performance keeps them in first by a huge margin. Now they just need one more win or 49ers loss to clinch the 1-seed. And they don't have any more road games. Until the Superbowl, that is. Maybe then they'll allow some points in New York.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable)
They move up to second by virtue of their incredible offensive performance and doing more good things in their loss than the Broncos did in theirs. On the other hand, they just got dominated by Matt fucking Cassel. But every team is deeply flawed this year. Except the Seahawks (just kidding, their o-line sucks, Russell Wilson is just able to make up for it).
3. Denver Broncos
I don't get why they have the most trouble offensively against the worst defenses (and by worst defenses, I mean the Chargers. Pretty much). Well, actually I do. It's just that their offense is so dominant and dominant passing games have such a high level of variance that luck starts to matter more a lot more than the opposing defense. And this will happen from time to time. Luckily for them, they're still probably going to only have to win two home games to make the Superbowl. So the variance doesn't have as much of a chance to cause their downfall. This team is still the best in the AFC, and they're also in the best position in the AFC. That's why they're the odds on favorite to win the conference.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Their dominant win pretty much locks up a playoff spot, but by virtue of their awful luck being in the NFC West, they'll be a 5th seed. Maybe even 6th. This team could easily be a 1-seed in the AFC East.
5. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful)
Now we see the real shame. Three of the five best teams in the NFL are in the NFC West. And that leaves an elite team out of the playoffs when the 24th and 26th best teams have already clinched, and the 3rd worst team still has a 30% chance of making it (The 25th best team has a pretty good chance, too.). If the Falcons, who could easily finish the season as the worst team in the league, lose out, the Cardinals are out of the playoffs. That's EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO BEAT THE BEST AND 4TH BEST TEAMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THEY STILL MISS THE PLAYOFFS. Ok, I exaggerated a little bit. If the Panthers beat the Saints, the Cards need the 4th worst team in the league to beat the Saints instead of the 2nd worst team beating the Panthers. But I don't know if that situation is any better. I feel bad for this incredibly good team.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
That was a bad loss. And the Ravens win hurt them, too. But this is still an elite team, and they just need to handle their business against a bad Ravens team. And even if they blow that and the division, the Dolphins could easily lose one of their next couple games (even though the Dolphins do hold the tiebreak) and leave the Bengals with the last wild card. The second best team in the AFC isn't going to go away quietly.
7. New Orleans Saints
That game was awful. Now they're probably going to have to beat the Panthers on the road to avoid being stuck with the wild card and needing to win 3 road games to make the Superbowl.
8. Detroit Lions (Doubtful)
They dominated that game, they just made some unlucky mistakes and fell victim to a really good kicking performance. But now that I've gotten that out of the way, they've probably just blown their playoff spot that had been all but locked up two weeks ago. Not that they're out by any means, they still have almost a 30% shot at making it, but that's a dramatic dropoff from last week.
9. Carolina Panthers
With a win against the Jets, the Panthers set themselves up perfectly to take advantage when the Saints blew a game they should have won easily. Now the Panthers just need to beat the Saints at home and then finish against an awful Falcons squad. They're favorites for the 2-seed right now.
10. Green Bay Packers (Questionable)
Matt Flynn can ball. He's played almost as well as Rodgers in that offense, scoring touchdowns on every second half drive against the Cowboys. Every single start he's had for the Packers has been a stupendous performance now (with the one exception of the Thanksgiving Detroit game, but even Rodgers wouldn't have had a chance there given the way the offensive line was ripped to shreds). However, it's definitely a good thing for them that Rodgers is returning, and the Packers control their own destiny. Given how well they had played pre-injury, they should be favored against both of their opponents, the Steelers and Bears. Let's face it. The division is probably going to come down to that final Bears Packers game, where the Packers can face a win-and-they're-in situation.
12. San Diego Chargers (Out)
It's a shame that they can beat the Broncos and have a worse shot at the playoffs. It's not gone altogether, but the Ravens' and Dolphins' upsets have nearly sealed the Chargers' fate. They need to win out while the Ravens and Dolphins lose out.
14. Chicago Bears (Questionable)
They've somehow managed to find themselves with the division lead, but it's a tough road ahead. Their league-worst defense has to hold its own against elite Eagles and Packers offenses in the next two weeks. Luckily, they have their record to fall back on. They don't have to win as much. However, a 9-7 Lions team wins on tiebreaks against a 9-7 Bears team. This whole division is a toss up at this point. All the teams have around a 1/3 shot of winning.
18. New England Patriots
They really don't have a very good team without Gronk. Luckily for them, the AFC isn't good in general. In all likelihood, they're still going to make it to the second round and maybe even the conference championships. There are just so many bad AFC playoff teams that the Pats are actually one of the best.
20. New York Jets (Out)
They're done. Completely out. Mathematically eliminated. SEE-YA
23. Miami Dolphins (Questionable)
25. Baltimore Ravens (Questionable)
It's a coin flip. Both of these teams now control their own destiny. The Ravens have a real shot at even winning the division. Their matchup against the Pats next week is looking more and more winnable. On the other side of things, neither of these teams is any good. They both lucked into wins against better teams (The Ravens were a lot luckier: Their luck turned a loss into a win, rather than the Dolphins' luck that turned a coin flip into a win.). But they're in playoff position because nobody else is any good either.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
They actually have looked good recently, for the first time all season. But against teams that actually make open field tackles, it just isn't going to continue.
26. Indianapolis Colts
Another bad team. I'm done with them for this week.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful)
First, I want to say it's a good doubtful. It's still at about a third that they'll win that division. Now to my rant:
To everybody putting that loss on anybody other than the defense: Shut the fuck up right now. All I've fucking heard is that Jason Garett and Tony Romo passed way too much in the second half, and that's why they blew their 23 point halftime lead. Gregg Easterbrook had one of the stupidest articles I've seen from espn in a long time, and that's saying something. The Cowboys throw the ball. A lot. THAT'S WHY THE 30TH BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE IS .500 IN A STACKED CONFERENCE. They call plays that gain more yards for their offense. Yeah there's some variance, but you're going to get first downs a hell of a lot more when you pass a fuckton than when you run a fuckton. The WORST way to hold a lead is to run every play and go three and out every time. Putting up 10 points is a slightly subpar half, but it's league average: It's decent. And they only gave the Packers 5 drives. It's not like their passing gave the Packers all the time in the world to mount their comeback. The problem is that the defense GAVE UP A TOUCHDOWN ON EVERY ONE OF THOSE DRIVES! It absolutely is the right call to give yourself a significantly better chance at a first down with a few minutes left than to risk giving your opponent 40 more seconds (not even that, really) for their drive. At that point in the game actually, those 40 seconds aren't going to help you at all. Your opponent is hurrying up and passing every play anyway. They aren't going to have trouble scoring in time. In fact, the 40 seconds are almost as likely to help you (And what do you know? In this game, they actually did.), giving you more time on a final drive. The Cowboys absolutely were right to pass it in the second half. They just had some bad breaks and weren't able to get any stops.
Jags, 32, 27, 0.12801184595043424, 32
Falcons, 19, 31, 0.13601628773502616, 31
Cowboys, 11, 29, 0.26535191354190346, 30
Bucs, 31, 10, 0.31430210762992405, 29
Bills, 29, 12, 0.36011225536009317, 28
Rams, 22, 25, 0.3630011127166235, 27
Colts, 16, 26, 0.3751642860939558, 26
Ravens, 30, 8, 0.37714367243661884, 25
Chiefs, 23, 20, 0.3810025201179349, 24
Dolphins, 25, 15, 0.4023249273254861, 23
Redskins, 20, 22, 0.41097279026047073, 22
Raiders, 18, 23, 0.4119516662432676, 21
Jets, 26, 9, 0.43103664336687064, 20
Texans, 24, 11, 0.43116666468870146, 19
Pats, 12, 24, 0.4380997790375938, 18
Vikings, 14, 19, 0.4507626847839823, 17
Steelers, 13, 17, 0.48182210203227294, 16
Titans, 21, 13, 0.4891655423898721, 15
Bears, 5, 32, 0.49359225969732445, 14
Browns, 27, 6, 0.5527254925806013, 13
Chargers, 4, 30, 0.5797990195734258, 12
Giants, 28, 3, 0.5915985527372775, 11
Pack, 6, 28, 0.5994590730830835, 10
Panthers, 17, 7, 0.6135466968352618, 9
Lions, 7, 21, 0.6683376232490422, 8
Saints, 8, 14, 0.7260792136551181, 7
Bengals, 10, 5, 0.7304629940368006, 6
Cardinals, 15, 1, 0.7712413822602959, 5
Niners, 9, 4, 0.806848229999425, 4
Broncos, 3, 18, 0.8850078855424114, 3
Eagles, 1, 16, 0.9378928096470434, 2
Hawks, 2, 2, 1.1933136193704903, 1
And now let's get into the playoff teams
1. Seattle Seahawks
Another dominant defensive performance keeps them in first by a huge margin. Now they just need one more win or 49ers loss to clinch the 1-seed. And they don't have any more road games. Until the Superbowl, that is. Maybe then they'll allow some points in New York.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (Probable)
They move up to second by virtue of their incredible offensive performance and doing more good things in their loss than the Broncos did in theirs. On the other hand, they just got dominated by Matt fucking Cassel. But every team is deeply flawed this year. Except the Seahawks (just kidding, their o-line sucks, Russell Wilson is just able to make up for it).
3. Denver Broncos
I don't get why they have the most trouble offensively against the worst defenses (and by worst defenses, I mean the Chargers. Pretty much). Well, actually I do. It's just that their offense is so dominant and dominant passing games have such a high level of variance that luck starts to matter more a lot more than the opposing defense. And this will happen from time to time. Luckily for them, they're still probably going to only have to win two home games to make the Superbowl. So the variance doesn't have as much of a chance to cause their downfall. This team is still the best in the AFC, and they're also in the best position in the AFC. That's why they're the odds on favorite to win the conference.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Their dominant win pretty much locks up a playoff spot, but by virtue of their awful luck being in the NFC West, they'll be a 5th seed. Maybe even 6th. This team could easily be a 1-seed in the AFC East.
5. Arizona Cardinals (Doubtful)
Now we see the real shame. Three of the five best teams in the NFL are in the NFC West. And that leaves an elite team out of the playoffs when the 24th and 26th best teams have already clinched, and the 3rd worst team still has a 30% chance of making it (The 25th best team has a pretty good chance, too.). If the Falcons, who could easily finish the season as the worst team in the league, lose out, the Cardinals are out of the playoffs. That's EVEN IF THEY MANAGE TO BEAT THE BEST AND 4TH BEST TEAMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THEY STILL MISS THE PLAYOFFS. Ok, I exaggerated a little bit. If the Panthers beat the Saints, the Cards need the 4th worst team in the league to beat the Saints instead of the 2nd worst team beating the Panthers. But I don't know if that situation is any better. I feel bad for this incredibly good team.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
That was a bad loss. And the Ravens win hurt them, too. But this is still an elite team, and they just need to handle their business against a bad Ravens team. And even if they blow that and the division, the Dolphins could easily lose one of their next couple games (even though the Dolphins do hold the tiebreak) and leave the Bengals with the last wild card. The second best team in the AFC isn't going to go away quietly.
7. New Orleans Saints
That game was awful. Now they're probably going to have to beat the Panthers on the road to avoid being stuck with the wild card and needing to win 3 road games to make the Superbowl.
8. Detroit Lions (Doubtful)
They dominated that game, they just made some unlucky mistakes and fell victim to a really good kicking performance. But now that I've gotten that out of the way, they've probably just blown their playoff spot that had been all but locked up two weeks ago. Not that they're out by any means, they still have almost a 30% shot at making it, but that's a dramatic dropoff from last week.
9. Carolina Panthers
With a win against the Jets, the Panthers set themselves up perfectly to take advantage when the Saints blew a game they should have won easily. Now the Panthers just need to beat the Saints at home and then finish against an awful Falcons squad. They're favorites for the 2-seed right now.
10. Green Bay Packers (Questionable)
Matt Flynn can ball. He's played almost as well as Rodgers in that offense, scoring touchdowns on every second half drive against the Cowboys. Every single start he's had for the Packers has been a stupendous performance now (with the one exception of the Thanksgiving Detroit game, but even Rodgers wouldn't have had a chance there given the way the offensive line was ripped to shreds). However, it's definitely a good thing for them that Rodgers is returning, and the Packers control their own destiny. Given how well they had played pre-injury, they should be favored against both of their opponents, the Steelers and Bears. Let's face it. The division is probably going to come down to that final Bears Packers game, where the Packers can face a win-and-they're-in situation.
12. San Diego Chargers (Out)
It's a shame that they can beat the Broncos and have a worse shot at the playoffs. It's not gone altogether, but the Ravens' and Dolphins' upsets have nearly sealed the Chargers' fate. They need to win out while the Ravens and Dolphins lose out.
14. Chicago Bears (Questionable)
They've somehow managed to find themselves with the division lead, but it's a tough road ahead. Their league-worst defense has to hold its own against elite Eagles and Packers offenses in the next two weeks. Luckily, they have their record to fall back on. They don't have to win as much. However, a 9-7 Lions team wins on tiebreaks against a 9-7 Bears team. This whole division is a toss up at this point. All the teams have around a 1/3 shot of winning.
18. New England Patriots
They really don't have a very good team without Gronk. Luckily for them, the AFC isn't good in general. In all likelihood, they're still going to make it to the second round and maybe even the conference championships. There are just so many bad AFC playoff teams that the Pats are actually one of the best.
20. New York Jets (Out)
They're done. Completely out. Mathematically eliminated. SEE-YA
23. Miami Dolphins (Questionable)
25. Baltimore Ravens (Questionable)
It's a coin flip. Both of these teams now control their own destiny. The Ravens have a real shot at even winning the division. Their matchup against the Pats next week is looking more and more winnable. On the other side of things, neither of these teams is any good. They both lucked into wins against better teams (The Ravens were a lot luckier: Their luck turned a loss into a win, rather than the Dolphins' luck that turned a coin flip into a win.). But they're in playoff position because nobody else is any good either.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
They actually have looked good recently, for the first time all season. But against teams that actually make open field tackles, it just isn't going to continue.
26. Indianapolis Colts
Another bad team. I'm done with them for this week.
30. Dallas Cowboys (Doubtful)
First, I want to say it's a good doubtful. It's still at about a third that they'll win that division. Now to my rant:
To everybody putting that loss on anybody other than the defense: Shut the fuck up right now. All I've fucking heard is that Jason Garett and Tony Romo passed way too much in the second half, and that's why they blew their 23 point halftime lead. Gregg Easterbrook had one of the stupidest articles I've seen from espn in a long time, and that's saying something. The Cowboys throw the ball. A lot. THAT'S WHY THE 30TH BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE IS .500 IN A STACKED CONFERENCE. They call plays that gain more yards for their offense. Yeah there's some variance, but you're going to get first downs a hell of a lot more when you pass a fuckton than when you run a fuckton. The WORST way to hold a lead is to run every play and go three and out every time. Putting up 10 points is a slightly subpar half, but it's league average: It's decent. And they only gave the Packers 5 drives. It's not like their passing gave the Packers all the time in the world to mount their comeback. The problem is that the defense GAVE UP A TOUCHDOWN ON EVERY ONE OF THOSE DRIVES! It absolutely is the right call to give yourself a significantly better chance at a first down with a few minutes left than to risk giving your opponent 40 more seconds (not even that, really) for their drive. At that point in the game actually, those 40 seconds aren't going to help you at all. Your opponent is hurrying up and passing every play anyway. They aren't going to have trouble scoring in time. In fact, the 40 seconds are almost as likely to help you (And what do you know? In this game, they actually did.), giving you more time on a final drive. The Cowboys absolutely were right to pass it in the second half. They just had some bad breaks and weren't able to get any stops.
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